10027459Project Crystal Ball: Predict and Preserve Profitability of OrchardsClosedCollaborative R&DISCFA report released in June 2021 by WWF & Tesco found that globally 15% of food is wasted before it even leaves the farm gate. The majority of this waste occurs in middle- and high-income countries across Europe, North America and developed Asia, and one of the key reasons is human factors within the supply chain. Another report in March this year from WRAP estimated that food surplus and waste on-farms across the UK totals 3.6 million tonnes, worth £1.2 billion. In particular, WRAP reports that 9.4% of apples are wasted and 10.8% are surplus, with losses to farmers of £53.8m. The value of apples depends on the shape, colour and presence of blemishes, although size is arguably the most important metric. The relationship between fruit size and value is complex, changing every year and different for each variety. Regardless of the details, British farmers must aim for quite tight size band targets to achieve high value, and if their fruit ends up outside these bands, it can result in situations where the apples production costs outweigh the expected commercial value/returns. Using a drone that costs less than £2,500, it is possible to acquire high-resolution footage across an orchard automatically, avoiding any obstacles. This low capex automated solution for detailed crop analysis enables farmers to gather accurate up-to-date crop data across their farms quickly, simply and affordably. Drone surveys can generate insights into a crop's performance, with the goal of allowing growers and agronomists to streamline their operations to improve crop quality and maximise yields. High resolution cameras combined with the speed and precision of a drone means farmers can have detailed maps of an orchard on demand, showing tree size, blossom loading, fruit set and more. These data can be used by farmers to understand how their crops are developing, and inform their choice or interventions to optimise the value of their crops. Working with YAGRO on this project, we will integrate yield and quality estimates on the developing crops based on drone surveys, with detailed commercial intelligence. This will provide farmers with market-level information, enabling them to understand the commercial value of their changing forecasts. By linking data on production costs to date with quality requirements and end-market prices, they will be able to assess their current position, the need for action and the risk involved.