56935Aviation Industry COVID-19 RecoveryClosedFeasibility StudiesInnovate UKThe International Air Transport Association (IATA) is estimating that the COVID-19 pandemic will cost the airline industry more than $314 billion, reducing revenues by 48% in 2020, as a result of travel restrictions and their aftermath (IATA COVID-19 Updated Impact Assessment, 14 April 2020). In April 2020, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) reported that scheduled flights in the UK were down by 89% and the cost of lost airline revenue in the second half of 2020 may be close to $16 billion. Overall GDP in the UK will be reduced as a result of COVID-19 by 6.5% in 2020, at a cost close to $200 billion. The total impact on European airline revenue will be a 55% reduction in Revenue Passenger Kilometres (both international and domestic) for the full year 2020, at a cost of $89 billion (ICAO document: Effects of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Civil Aviation: Economic Impact Analysis, 15 April 2020). The vision of the project is to analyse the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic and predict the recovery of the aviation industry. The project initially involves modelling the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic and then will develop a 'return to service' model for the commercial aircraft fleet, region by region. SATAVIA has supported the Ventilator Challenge UK project (www.ventilatorchallengeuk.com) to provide data analytics on estimated ventilator numbers. The SATAVIA data science team has developed capability to predict ventilator number requirements based on modelling of the progression of the pandemic. Several of the data science team previously have epidemiological backgrounds which enabled us to quickly develop an analytical grade model. We intend to extend SATAVIA's current 'envirotech' software platform to include epidemiological analysis capability. Key objectives will be to: (1) Integrate COVID-19 forecasting methodology with confidence intervals, test using historic data, and validate the predictions; model how the progression of COVID-19 cases correlate with climatic conditions and policy interventions, and the use this to understand options for air travel to resume. The main focus of the enhanced capability will offer a near-real-time analysis of industry recovery as travel restrictions are released to predict commercial flight activity into 2021\. The project is highly innovative as it brings together a diverse and highly capable data science team, and extends SATAVIA's software technology to aggregate a diverse range of data sources spanning epidemiological to atmosphere and climate analysis, for an industry that is a critical part of the global economy. During the course of the project, SATAVIA has developed leads with a number of aircraft operators in commercial and business aviation. The Extension for Impact funding will enable SATAVIA to engage in demonstrations and further development is required to ingest passenger data directly from the organisations. Further work is required to develop a scalable, cloud based solution; to provide an operational data feed; integration into the SATAVIA API; and the development of a SDK (software development kit) for third parties to integrate directly into their solutions.