Developing enhanced impact models for integration with next generation NWP and climate outputs
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Reading
Department Name: Geography and Environmental Sciences
Abstract
Current best estimates indicate that approximately 5M people living in 2M properties are at risk of flooding resulting from extreme storms in the UK. Of these approximately 200,000 homes are not protected against a 1 in 75 year recurrence interval event, the Government's minimum recommended level of protection. When major floods do occur then total damage costs are high (£3.5Bn for the summer 2007 floods) and the total annual spending on flood defence approaches £800M. Protecting this population and minimizing these costs into the future requires the development of robust hydrologic and hydraulic models to translate the outputs from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and climate models into meaningful estimates of impact (with uncertainty). These predictions of impact can then be used to plan investment decisions, provide real-time warnings, design flood defence schemes and generally help better manage storm risks and mitigate the effects of dangerous climate change. Building on foundations developed by consortium members as part of the NERC Flood Risk from Extreme Events (FREE) and EPSRC/NERC Flood Risk Management Research Consortium (FRMRC) Programmes, we here propose an integrated programme of research that will lead to step change improvements in our ability to quantify storm impacts over both the short and long term. Based on the knowledge gained in the above programmes, we suggest that improvements in storm impact modelling can be achieved through four linked objectives which we are uniquely positioned to deliver. Specifically, these are: 1. Downscaling, uncertainty propagation and evaluation of hydrologic modelling structures. 2. The development of data assimilation and remote sensing approaches to enhance predictions from storm impact models. 3. Fully dynamically coupled extreme storm surge and fluvial modelling. 4. The development of a new class of hydraulic model that can be used to convert predictions of rainfall-runoff or coastal extreme water levels to estimates of flood extent and depth at the resolution of LiDAR data (~1 - 2m horizontal resolution) over whole city regions using a true momentum-conserving approach. In this proposal we evaluate the potential of the above four approaches to reduce the uncertainty in ensemble predictions of storm impact given typical errors in the NWP and climate model outputs which are used as boundary forcing for impact modelling chains. Our initial characterization of the errors in predicted storm features (spatial rainfall and wind speed fields) in current implementations of NWP and climate models will be based on existing studies conducted by the UK Met Office and the University of Reading. As the project proceeds we will use the advances in storm modelling being developed for Deliverables 1 and 2 of this call to enhance our error characterizations and ensure that the techniques we develop are appropriate for current and future meteorological modelling technologies. We will rigorously evaluate the success of our proposed methods through the use of unique benchmark data sets of storm impact being developed at the Universities of Bristol and Reading.
People |
ORCID iD |
Hannah Cloke (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
Wetterhall F
(2013)
HESS Opinions "Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts"
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Ye J
(2013)
Evaluation of ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins
in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Souvignet M
(2013)
Recent climatic trends and linkages to river discharge in Central Vietnam
in Hydrological Processes
Mason D
(2014)
Detection of flooded urban areas in high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar images using double scattering
in International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation
Pappenberger F
(2015)
Global forecasting of thermal health hazards: the skill of probabilistic predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI).
in International journal of biometeorology
García-Pintado J
(2015)
Satellite-supported flood forecasting in river networks: A real case study
in Journal of Hydrology
Mason D
(2015)
The potential of flood forecasting using a variable-resolution global Digital Terrain Model and flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images
in Frontiers in Earth Science
Mason D
(2016)
Improving the TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model for flood modelling using flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images
in Remote Sensing of Environment
Description | Improved flood forecasting practices through a better understanding of ensemble decision making, work with the EFAS and technical model improvements in operational flood forecasting systems. |
Exploitation Route | Improved flood forecasting practice in operational systems |
Sectors | Environment |
Description | In developing systems of European Flood Awareness System and other national and international flood programmes. |
First Year Of Impact | 2011 |
Sector | Environment |
Impact Types | Societal Economic Policy & public services |
Description | Training in interpretation of Ensemble Flood Forecast products |
Geographic Reach | Asia |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Impact | Flood forecasters more confident to implement and use ensemble flood forecasts in their operational products |
Description | Applying probabilistic flood forecasting in Flood Incident Management. |
Amount | £200,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | Science Project SC090032 |
Organisation | Environment Agency |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 01/2009 |
End | 05/2011 |
Description | DEFRA Catchment Modelling call |
Amount | £50,452 (GBP) |
Organisation | Department For Environment, Food And Rural Affairs (DEFRA) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 07/2014 |
End | 09/2015 |
Description | Industrial CASE PhD: Uncertainty in future flood risk for insurance markets |
Amount | £78,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/H017836/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 08/2010 |
End | 08/2014 |
Description | Interdisciplinary PhD studentship: Developing a Risk-Based and Participatory Approach to Reducing the Uncertainty in Modelling Climate Impact on Flood Inundation |
Amount | £78,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | 1014118 |
Organisation | Economic and Social Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 08/2010 |
End | 08/2015 |
Description | Transatlantic Data Science Academy Scoping Project |
Amount | £569,705 (GBP) |
Organisation | Meteorological Office UK |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 11/2023 |
End | 07/2024 |
Title | Ensemble Flood Forecasting |
Description | A modelling methodology for representing uncertainty by implementing probabilistic ensembles in flood forecasts, particularly in the medium range. |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2009 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | The method is now integrated into the European Flood Awareness System and has been emulated in other operational systems, including those int the UK. |
Description | CH2MHill |
Organisation | CH2M HILL |
Country | United States |
Sector | Private |
PI Contribution | We are exploring flood risk models and techniques used by CH2MHill in particular for work on government/agency consultancy projects. |
Collaborator Contribution | Sharing models, data, expertise and links to government/agency consultancy projects. |
Impact | Dale et al (2013) DEFRA/EA technical report on ensemble flood forecasting. |
Start Year | 2008 |
Description | Environment Agency |
Organisation | Environment Agency |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Working on understanding flood risk in flood susceptible catchments and improving flood forecasting. |
Collaborator Contribution | Provision of data, expertise, forecast systems. The context of the flood risk framework. |
Impact | EA/DEFRA technical report |
Start Year | 2007 |
Description | European Flood Awareness System |
Organisation | European Commission |
Department | European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) |
Country | European Union (EU) |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Scientific innovation, technical system developments and practical focus on enduser understanding for the EFAS: e.g. The research provided the first evidence of the potential for improvements in flood forecasting through using ensemble forecasting and decision making techniques. |
Collaborator Contribution | Provision of expert advice, computing resources and expertise, data, methods, stakeholder network. Research secondments. Willingness to co-test new ideas within the operational system. |
Impact | The EFAS now provides flood forecasting information two days or more before a flood event to the national authorities around Europe as well as the Emergency Response Coordination Centre of the European Commission, and has been operational since 2012. The skill of EFAS forecasts and warnings has been continuously improving (https://www.efas.eu/download/efasBulletins/2014/bulletin_dec-jan_14.pdf) and the system has demonstrated its early warning capabilities in several recent events (e.g. the Balkan floods in 2014 and the central European Floods in 2013). This has provided an earlier flood preparedness, days earlier than conventional flood forecasting systems, and thus greatly improving flood preparedness for the ERCC, European national authorities and all European Citizens. Hannah's scientific innovation and technical system developments has provided an evidence base for implementing early warning from ensembles and contributed directly to the improved flood warning from EFAS. Hannah's work with social scientists on improving communication of EFAS flood alerts has allowed EFAS forecasters to change their practice both in the way alerts are given and the way that they engage with forecast recipients, allowing costly and potentially contentious decisions to be made in a more consistent, risk-informed way. In addition, the EFAS system with an estimated development cost over 10 years of 20 million Euros, is now estimated to provide net economic benefit. |
Description | Flood Forecasting Centre |
Organisation | Meteorological Office UK |
Department | Flood Forecasting Centre |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Improving technical implementation of flood forecasts and decision making procedures. |
Collaborator Contribution | Access to data, decision making systems, forecast room and forecast team. |
Impact | EA/DEFRA technical report on probabilistic flood forecasting. Stephens & Cloke, 2014 |
Start Year | 2011 |
Description | Joint Research Centre |
Organisation | European Commission |
Department | Joint Research Centre (JRC) |
Country | European Union (EU) |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Working on using ensemble forecasts and uncertainty analysis in their operational modelling systems. |
Collaborator Contribution | Expertise, access to computers, research visits, access to data, models and stakeholders. |
Impact | Development of EFAS |
Description | Met Office |
Organisation | Meteorological Office UK |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Improving flood forecasting, land surface hydrology for seasonal forecasting, interpretation of climate projections for water resource impacts |
Collaborator Contribution | Provision of data, expertise, models. Co-producing methods. |
Impact | Several research articles |
Start Year | 2007 |
Description | Environment Agency Long Term Investment Strategies Advisory Group - HC, PB |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Hannah Cloke and Paul Bates have been invited to sit on the Environment Agency Long Term Investment Strategy Advisory Group, to provide scientific advise on the long term planning on flood risk management. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024 |
Description | National Flood Resilience Review Scientific Advisory Group HC, PB |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Hannah Cloke and Paul Bates were invited to sit on the Scientific Advisory Group of the National Flood Resilience Review which commented on the current state and future needs of flood risk management in England. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-flood-resilience-review |