Economic Recovery Analytics
Lead Participant:
NQUIRINGMINDS LIMITED
Abstract
NQM Economic Analyser applies artificial intelligence, statistical techniques and scenario modelling to the problem of local economic planning for resilience and recovery from Covid-19\.
The economic health of the high street has been in decline pre Covid \[1\]. Many local authorities generate a significant portion of their revenue from business rates on high street properties. With a shrinking supply of central government money, local authorities must balance the requirements of stimulating economic growth and generating revenue. This issue has been further exacerbated by the huge impact that COVID-19 has had on the global economy, as well as the more local effects of lockdown and accelerating the trend of people moving to online shopping.
NQM Economic Analyser leverages a well developed portfolio of AI and data modelling techniques to help address these issues. By utilising historical and current business rates data, alongside a flexible model of economic health, economic planners are given the insights they need to plan for resilience and long term growth. More specifically, NQM Economic Analyser provides the following features:
1. Impact Analysis: Fine grained historical data, spliceable across many different variables helps provide evidence for the effectiveness of different strategies for high street rejuvenation.
2. Predictive Analytics: A nuanced model that learns from both local and broader economic trends, and provides a forecast for the future behaviour of the economy.
3. Scenario Planning: As recent events have shown, the past does not always inform the future. The scenario planning tool allows economic planners to ask "what if" questions about the effects of both state intervention and economic downturn.
The innovation at the core of the Economic Analyser is the use of dynamic Bayesian networks and Markov models, on top of traditional statistical methods to build a system that is both suited to predicting a steady state system, and a highly divergent scenario. This is enabled by the fusion of open data with more confidential billing information, the security of which is guaranteed through the use of NquiringMinds' Trusted Data Exchange.
Based on technology that has already been prototyped with Belfast City Council, the Economic Analyser is a refinement and evolution of a module within the LPRL fraud detection system.
\[1\] [https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/30/pandemic-will-vastly-accelerate-decline-of-uk-high-street-mps-told][0]
[0]: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/30/pandemic-will-vastly-accelerate-decline-of-uk-high-street-mps-told
The economic health of the high street has been in decline pre Covid \[1\]. Many local authorities generate a significant portion of their revenue from business rates on high street properties. With a shrinking supply of central government money, local authorities must balance the requirements of stimulating economic growth and generating revenue. This issue has been further exacerbated by the huge impact that COVID-19 has had on the global economy, as well as the more local effects of lockdown and accelerating the trend of people moving to online shopping.
NQM Economic Analyser leverages a well developed portfolio of AI and data modelling techniques to help address these issues. By utilising historical and current business rates data, alongside a flexible model of economic health, economic planners are given the insights they need to plan for resilience and long term growth. More specifically, NQM Economic Analyser provides the following features:
1. Impact Analysis: Fine grained historical data, spliceable across many different variables helps provide evidence for the effectiveness of different strategies for high street rejuvenation.
2. Predictive Analytics: A nuanced model that learns from both local and broader economic trends, and provides a forecast for the future behaviour of the economy.
3. Scenario Planning: As recent events have shown, the past does not always inform the future. The scenario planning tool allows economic planners to ask "what if" questions about the effects of both state intervention and economic downturn.
The innovation at the core of the Economic Analyser is the use of dynamic Bayesian networks and Markov models, on top of traditional statistical methods to build a system that is both suited to predicting a steady state system, and a highly divergent scenario. This is enabled by the fusion of open data with more confidential billing information, the security of which is guaranteed through the use of NquiringMinds' Trusted Data Exchange.
Based on technology that has already been prototyped with Belfast City Council, the Economic Analyser is a refinement and evolution of a module within the LPRL fraud detection system.
\[1\] [https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/30/pandemic-will-vastly-accelerate-decline-of-uk-high-street-mps-told][0]
[0]: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/30/pandemic-will-vastly-accelerate-decline-of-uk-high-street-mps-told
Lead Participant | Project Cost | Grant Offer |
|---|---|---|
| NQUIRINGMINDS LIMITED | £216,976 | £ 173,581 |
Participant |
||
| BCP COUNCIL | £64,879 | £ 64,879 |
People |
ORCID iD |
| Hannah Dalton (Project Manager) |