The 2017 Northern Ireland General Election Study
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Liverpool
Department Name: Politics
Abstract
The case for support is for a comprehensive study of voting patterns, attitudes and priorities of the electorate at the 2017 Northern Ireland General Election, deploying questionnaire based face-to-face interviews with 1,100 electors - a separate but 'sister' study to the British Election Survey which only covers England, Scotland and Wales. The research will survey opinion in Northern Ireland at a time of considerable political uncertainty/crisis. Since the 2015 general election, there have been very significant developments. Public opinion needs examining to see what Northern Ireland's electorate want in response to a) the possible collapse of the devolved Executive and Assembly, currently not sitting amid stalemate b) the management of Brexit - opposed by a majority in Northern Ireland - and concerns over a 'hard' or 'soft' border, the Common Travel Area and replacement of part of the Good Friday Agreement c) the first-ever loss of a unionist majority, at the recent Assembly election and d) controversies over demands for Irish language and same-sex marriage legislation. The election takes place with Northern Ireland in political crisis. There is a real prospect of a return to direct rule from Westminster. The survey will be based on a representative sample of 1,100 electors from across Northern Ireland.
The study will provide a comprehensive study of how the electorate voted in the 2017 General Election in Northern Ireland - and why electors voted the way they did (or declined to vote). It will analyse the basis of voting behaviour and party choice of the Northern Ireland electorate at the first General Election since the Brexit referendum and amid political crisis resulting in the hiatus in devolved government. Is ethno-religious identity still virtually all? The research will assess whether voters back the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly and to measure support for devolved power-sharing relative to direct rule from Westminster. The study will also analyse attitudes to EU withdrawal. What does the Northern Ireland electorate want regarding a 'hard' or 'soft' border and a common travel area with the Irish Republic and how should the region - a large beneficiary of EU finance - respond to Brexit?
The study will measure the extent to which, if at all, the sectarian/confessional ethno-religious divide in Northern Ireland politics is being breached by votes for candidates from the 'rival' community - and to examine the reasons for communal and cross-community voting.it will examine views on social/moral issues such as abortion rights (still virtually prohibited in Northern Ireland) and same-sex marriage (opposed by the largest party in Northern Ireland, the DUP). The survey will explore the electorate's views on a range of post-conflict issues, as truth and reconciliation commissions, support for victims, reform of the judicial system and integration of Northern Ireland, via, e.g. the removal of 'peace walls'; and 'mixed' schooling.
The study will provide a comprehensive study of how the electorate voted in the 2017 General Election in Northern Ireland - and why electors voted the way they did (or declined to vote). It will analyse the basis of voting behaviour and party choice of the Northern Ireland electorate at the first General Election since the Brexit referendum and amid political crisis resulting in the hiatus in devolved government. Is ethno-religious identity still virtually all? The research will assess whether voters back the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly and to measure support for devolved power-sharing relative to direct rule from Westminster. The study will also analyse attitudes to EU withdrawal. What does the Northern Ireland electorate want regarding a 'hard' or 'soft' border and a common travel area with the Irish Republic and how should the region - a large beneficiary of EU finance - respond to Brexit?
The study will measure the extent to which, if at all, the sectarian/confessional ethno-religious divide in Northern Ireland politics is being breached by votes for candidates from the 'rival' community - and to examine the reasons for communal and cross-community voting.it will examine views on social/moral issues such as abortion rights (still virtually prohibited in Northern Ireland) and same-sex marriage (opposed by the largest party in Northern Ireland, the DUP). The survey will explore the electorate's views on a range of post-conflict issues, as truth and reconciliation commissions, support for victims, reform of the judicial system and integration of Northern Ireland, via, e.g. the removal of 'peace walls'; and 'mixed' schooling.
Planned Impact
Please see 2015 original award.
Organisations
Publications
Coulter, C
(2019)
From the Long War to the Long Peace
in Capital and Class
Evans J
(2016)
Partisan and religious drivers of moral conservatism Same-sex marriage and abortion in Northern Ireland
in Party Politics
Evans J
(2017)
Religious, Political, and Geographical Determinants of Attitudes to Protestant Parades in Northern Ireland
in Politics and Religion
Hayes B
(2018)
Female Party Attachment in a Power-Sharing Polity: The Erosion of Protestant Support in Northern Ireland
in Nationalism and Ethnic Politics
Hayes B
(2018)
Ethnonationalism and attitudes towards same-sex marriage and abortion in Northern Ireland
in International Political Science Review
Hayes B
(2018)
Belonging without believing: religion and attitudes towards gay marriage and abortion rights in Northern Ireland
in Religion, State and Society
Hayes, B
(2018)
Power Sharing and Power Relations after Civil War
Hennessey
(2019)
The Ulster Unionist Party: Country Before Party?
Shirlow P
(2018)
Twenty Years after the Belfast Agreement
in Parliamentary Affairs
Tonge J
(2022)
Voting into a Void? The 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly Election
in The Political Quarterly
| Description | There are a range of key findings. Here are a few. Despite the ongoing political instability, there is considerable support for Northern Ireland's political institutions, amongst the entire population. There are supportive majorities on each question amongst unionists and nationalists. Table 1. 'The Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive should be restored' % Total Unionist Nationalist Strongly agree/agree 70.4 77.9 76.6 Neither/Don't know 24.2 19.2 12.7 Disagree/Strongly disagree 5.4 2.9 10.7 Table 2. Please describe how you feel about the Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive % Total Unionist Nationalist Strongly support/support 65.5 80.8 66.2 Neither/Don't know 25.6 14.4 19.1 Oppose/Strongly oppose 8.9 4.8 14.7 Table 3. Please tell us how you feel about the requirement that Unionists and Nationalists must both in the Executive sharing power % Total Unionist Nationalist Strongly support/support 67.4 75.6 71.6 Neither 25.6 17.7 21.0 Oppose/Strongly oppose 7.0 6.7 7.4 Table 4. Please tell us how you feel about the following: Legislation should require the consent of a majority of unionist AND nationalist members (MLAs) before it can be passed % Total Unionist Nationalist Strongly agree/agree 61.2 63.5 69.6 Neither 31.5 26.1 24.0 Disagree/Strongly disagree 6.3 8.4 6.4 2. Restoration of the political institutions can only be achieved via the political will of the DUP and Sinn Féin and resolution of the political issues creating the impasse, notably around an Irish Language Act. Only 27% of the public in Northern Ireland believe that the parties have cooperated well within those institutions. It is not the institutions, however, that are the problem. 3. Changing the political institutions is to offer the wrong remedy given the evidence that the public retains faith in them and their principles. Whilst there is a case to be made for reviewing the threshold for parallel cross-community consent, the public seems content with the current requirement and, regardless, a lowering of the threshold would not resolve any of the current problems. For example, 34% of electors support an Irish Language Act and 28% oppose, with communal differences stark. Abolishing communal designations would be too risky at this stage. Reduced Assembly numbers since the March 2017 election mean that single-party Petitions of Concern are now impossible in any case. Voluntary coalitions excluding either the lead representative of unionism or of nationalism will simply not work. On social/moral/religious we found significant inter-communal differences on same-sex marriage, with nationalists more in favour, but it should be noted that more DUP voters supported its legalisation than were opposed. Age is the biggest attitudinal determinant: young people are most pro-legalisation. On abortion, the inter-communal differences were less clear. All electors Unionists DUP voters Nationalists Sinn Féin voters Pro-legalisation 39% 45% 41% 35% 32% Anti-legalisation 29% 34% 37% 37% 40% Same-sex marriage All electors Unionists DUP voters Nationalists Sinn Féin voters Pro-legalisation 54% 50% 44% 66% 66% Anti-legalisation 23% 36% 43% 18% 21% Other key findings included: few have changed their view on Brexit since the referendum (the majority view Northern Ireland is Remain); there are very strong intercommunal differences between nationalists (overwhelmingly Remain) and unionists (2/3 pro-Leave). There is much uncertainty over its likely impact but nationalists are twice as likely as unionists to see Brexit as producing a hard border. There remains scant evidence of cross-community thawing in terms of voting: the combined percentages of Catholics voting unionist and Protestants voting nationalist were below 2%. The hostility of the respective support bases conditions attitudes towards political leaders. Most nationalists gave the DUP leader the lowest possible rating; unionists reciprocated regarding the Sinn Fein leader. Thus the message of strong support for political institutions and devolved government is juxtaposed with a determination to elect strong ethnic tribune parties. Most young people reject unionist or nationalist labels - and those eschewing such labels are least likely to vote. Only 33% of 18-24 year olds voted. In terms of the Conservative-DUP deal, this is overwhelmingly backed by unionists, regardless of whether they voted DUP or UUP. Nationalists are overwhelmingly opposed. |
| Exploitation Route | We have made recommendations to various parliamentary committees and to political parties. We hope and expect them to be taken forward e.g. in respect of legislation on same-sex marriage and abortion in Northern Ireland, the restoration of devolution, the objections to amnesties, etc. Our recommendations that the Assembly be restored with amended rules were requested by and presented to the Irish Department of Foreign Affairs and the Northern Ireland Office by the CI Prof Peter Shirlow. |
| Sectors | Government, Democracy and Justice |
| URL | https://discover.ukdataservice.ac.uk/catalogue/?sn=8234&type=data%20catalogue |
| Description | Impacts have featured the use of unique Northern Ireland general election studies and surveys of political parties by a) parliamentary committees to inform their policy recommendations b) by political parties to shape, change or maintain policies and c) by the media, to better inform the electorate. The research data contributed to the recommendations of the Northern Ireland Affairs Select Committee for a scrutiny role for the Northern Ireland Assembly; advised political parties of the stances of their support bases and aided public understanding of political parties in Northern Ireland. The research was cited extensively (20 times) by the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee (NIAC) in its 2018 Devolution and Democracy: Dealing with the Deficit report (5.4, 5.5). The Committee opposed the abolition of the devolved institutions, citing my data showing continuing cross-community support for devolved power-sharing and its rules and concurring that the evidence was of key problems being political, not of institutional design. Given the research showing this continuing public support (78% of unionists and 77% of nationalists wanted the Assembly and Executive restored, the NIAC was advised that Assembly members remain in place for constituency representation roles and committee scrutiny work (5.4, Q218) as a 'humane form' of ministerial/civil servant direct/indirect rule (5.4, Q218, p.2, Q228. p.10). The NIAC endorsed these recommendations for an Assembly scrutiny role: "We recommend that the Secretary of State take legal and procedural advice, including from the Clerk/Chief Executive of the Northern Ireland Assembly, on how the committee system in Stormont could be reinstated to provide, at a minimum, a scrutiny function for locally elected MLAs. This may be either through the statutory committee system or, if this is not feasible, through ad hoc committees. This would allow local politicians to have a formal and transparent input into any Ministerial decisions or legislation undertaken in Westminster, albeit limited" (5.5, para. 94, p.37). The research has rectified knowledge deficits by providing the first data-led analyses of DUP and UUP members and of the Northern Ireland electorate more broadly. Previously there was simply no data on who belonged to the DUP and why, so the research has been used by a vast range of national and international outlets to inform the public. The DUP and election data has featured on BBC Newsnight, BBC News, BBC Radio 4's PM, Today and Westminster Hour, Sky News, ABC (Australia), The Observer, Guardian, Daily Telegraph, Irish Times, Washington Post and New York Times among literally hundreds of media organisations, and Tonge was series consultant for a seven-part BBC video explainer on Northern Ireland. As one example of impact, Newsnight used data from the Northern Ireland election studies and DUP membership survey to a) show a clear majority of voters favour same-sex marriage b) quantify to a national audience (for the first time) the degree to which religious faith informs DUP members c) showed how different DUP voters are from their party, with more supporting same-sex marriage as opposing. These findings (especially b and c) made a very considerable impacts, in prompting extensive print and social media debate over the increasing acceptability of same-sex marriage even among constituencies which might be assumed to be opposed. Election study findings were presented to the Director of the Rainbow Project for LGBTQ rights in Northern Ireland as evidence for its campaigning point that public opinion wanted legalization of same-sex marriage, The research has also been used to brief a wide range of international audiences. As the Director of the Hansard International Scholars programme put it (5.11): ''Through his elections and party studies, Professor has made an important difference in enhancing the ability of overseas visitors to comprehend the difficulties of establishing democratic governance in Northern Ireland ... [The research] significantly improves the capacity of our Scholars to understand ethno-national divisions and articulate the reasons why political instability persists. Our data showing continuing support for the restoration of the Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive was presented to parliamentarians at Dail Eireann in October 2019. We highlighted that backing for the institutions remained extensive. We also highlighted how the rules of the Assembly might be changed post-restoration and this formed the basis of documents presented by the CI, Professor Peter Shirlow, to the Irish Department for Foreign Affairs and the Northern Ireland Office. The Assembly was indeed restored in January 2020 but its continuing vulnerability was demonstrated again in 2022 with a new collapse. We have used the data to reiterate that devolved power-sharing remains by far the most popular political option and have offered suggestions for institutional reform to prevent future collapses to the Northern Ireland Affairs Select Committee. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2022 |
| Sector | Education,Government, Democracy and Justice,Security and Diplomacy |
| Impact Types | Cultural,Societal,Economic,Policy & public services |
| Description | Evidence on Brexit and Northern Ireland to House of Lords European Union committee |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | How Northern Ireland can respond to Brexit |
| URL | https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ldselect/ldeucom/9/906.htm |
| Description | Evidence to European Parliament Constitutional Affairs committee on The Impact of Brexit upon Northern Ireland |
| Geographic Reach | Europe |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Solutions to the problem of resolving cross-border issues on the island of Ireland in the context of UK Brexit Evidence on the limits of what the DUP and other parties would accept. Evidence on public opinion in Northern Ireland. |
| URL | http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2017/583116/IPOL_BRI(2017)583116_EN.pdf |
| Description | Evidence to House of Commons Defence Committee on truth and reconciliation commissions and amnesties in Northern Ireland |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Provided evidence highlighting the inter-communal differences on attitudes to truth and reconciliation commissions and amnesties in Northern Ireland. |
| Description | Evidence to Northern Ireland Affairs Committee |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Nature of direct rule or devolution in Northern Ireland |
| Description | Participation in an advisory committee - House of Commons Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs committee |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Description | Beyond Unionism and Nationalism in Northern Ireland: Electors, Voters and Party Members |
| Amount | £441,838 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | ES/V014072/1 |
| Organisation | Economic and Social Research Council |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 11/2021 |
| End | 10/2023 |
| Title | Northern Ireland 2017 General Election Survey - the database |
| Description | SPSS database and frequency summaries |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2017 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | See public engagement and other sections highlighting evidence to Westminster select committees, European Parliament etc, plus media activity |
| URL | https://discover.ukdataservice.ac.uk/catalogue/?sn=8234&type=data%20catalogue |
| Description | Book launch The Ulster Unionist Party: Country Before Party? |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Launch of book on the Ulster Unionist Party - data from the ESRC 2015 and 2017 Northern Ireland election studies was used for the book. The book was and launch were reported extensively - over four days - in the Belfast Telegraph and News Letter, two of Northern Ireland's 3 daily papers. Coverage included a page-long positive response from the party leader. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/robin-swann-read-my-lips-there-will-be-no-m... |
| Description | Conference and seminar presentations |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Range of conference presentations giving findings from the project. The include the American Political Science Association, San Franscisco 2017 (2 papers); Elections, Public Opinion and Parties conference, Nottingham, Sept 2017 (2 papers). Political Studies Association of Ireland conference Dublin, Oct 2017, University of Manchester seminar, Feb 2017, King's College London seminar, Feb 2017. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017,2018 |
| Description | More than 70 articles in the Belfast Telegraph referencing findings from the study 2017-20 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | 70+ articles in the Belfast Telegraph 2017-20 Citations of research in The Guardian, Washington Post, Daily Telegraph, Daily Express, News Letter, Irish News, La Razon |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017,2018,2019,2020 |
| Description | Numerous television and media interviews |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Numerous (250+) television and radio broadcasts using data from the 2015 and 2017 Northern Ireland election studies. A full list of items and dates can be provided upon request, but they have included: BBC 10 o'clock news BBC Breakfast Sky News BBC Radio 4: Today, PM and Westminster Hour BBC 5 Live; various RTE radio BBC1 NW: Sunday Politics BBC1 Northern Ireland: The View ABC Australia Al-Jazeera BBC local radio |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017,2018,2019 |
| Description | Oral and Written evidence to Parliamentary Committees - House of Commons Northern Ireland Affairs Committee; House of Lords EU Committee; House of Lords Select Committee on Citizenship and Civic Engagement, House of Commons Constitutional Affairs Committee |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Presented oral and written evidence to parliamentary committees examining a) attitudes to Brexit in Northern Ireland b) attitudes to the devolved political institutions in Northern Ireland and c) extent of political engagement in Northern Ireland. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017,2018,2019 |
| Description | Presentation to the Seanad, Dail Eireann, 16th October 2019 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Presentation of the 2017 Northern Ireland election survey data, particularly on the extent of support for political institutions in Northern Ireland, to Seanad Eireann (Irish Parliament). The audience comprised mainly senators, TDs, other members of political parties and British Embassy staff. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Prof Peter Shirlow address to British-Irish Parliamentary Association |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Prof Peter Shirlow addressed the British-Irish Parliamentary group, 17 October 2017 on political and social change in Northern Ireland |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| Description | Prof Peter Shirlow address to Sinn Féin ard-fheis |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Professor Pete Shirlow addressed the Sinn Féin 2017 ard-fheis on sectarianism and social change |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| URL | https://www.facebook.com/sinnfein/videos/1461263170609976/ |
| Description | Use of data - plus appearance - on BBC Newsnight |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | BBC 2 Newsnight Fri 23 February - used 2017 election data on Northern Ireland social conservatism |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://youtu.be/JgXbAfldnaU |
| Description | Various media activities - newspaper articles, tv broadcasts, radio interviews |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Over 100+ media interviews - television and radio plus newspaper pieces - too numerous to list and most of the links are only there for one month. Outlets include BBC Newsnight, R4 Today, PM and Westminster Hour programmes, BBC 5 Live, BBC Northern Ireland The View, Spotlight programmes, BBC Radio Ulster and Foyle, UTV and many others. Newspapers include The Guardian, Independent, Belfast Telegraph. Where links are more permanent, a sample are listed here, e.g. https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/jon-tonge-does-dup-want-to-be-direct-rule-or-devolutionist-unionist-party-36637653.html BBC1 Northern Ireland Spotlight 20 Feb https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/aug/04/northern-irish-unionist-parties-alienating-young-protestants-study BBC Radio Ulster 21 Feb BBC Radio Foyle 21 Feb UTV - View from Stormont 19 Feb Belfast Telegraph article 15 Feb BBC Radio Ulster 16 Feb https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09sbnk1/spotlight-spotlight-special From 51 mins BBC iPlayer - Spotlight - Spotlight Special UTV View from Stormont from 21 mins https://www.itv.com/utvprogrammes/view-from-stormont https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/latest-fiasco-has-proved-that-2006-agreement-was-nothing-of-the-sort-36605818.html BBC Radio Ulster 16 Feb 2018 on the problems at Stormont https://www.bbc.co.uk/schedules/p00fzl8w#on-now BBC Radio Ulster Friday 16 February 2018 https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/12/09/we-are-so-used-to-seeing-northern-ireland-politics-as-a-zero-sum-game-that-its-hard-to-acknowledge-a-political-deal-which-might-benefit-everyone/ http://www.itv.com/news/utv/2018-01-19/funding-announced-for-a-citizens-assembly-in-northern-ireland/ |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |