Housing matters: A comparative study of the relationship between housing and poverty in Europe

Lead Research Organisation: CARDIFF UNIVERSITY
Department Name: Sch of Social Sciences

Abstract

This research will examine how the relationship between housing conditions and costs and poverty outcomes in Europe has changed over the past decade. Despite the significance of housing for the study of poverty, debates in these two fields have occurred in 'disjointed literatures' in recent decades (Stephens and van Steen, 2011). This disjuncture is increasingly problematic because housing costs are rising and now threaten to become a key driver of poverty: a recent study has found that the risk of in-work poverty has risen by one-quarter in the UK between 2004/5 and 2014/15, with this increased risk concentrated almost entirely amongst tenants in the private rented and social rented sectors (Hick and Lanau, 2017; see also Stephens et al., 2014). However, recent studies have typically been solely focussed on the UK: it is less clear whether patterns observed here are distinctive or common amongst European countries.

The aim of this research project is to examine and explain the association between housing and poverty in a comparative European context, and how this has changed over the decade between 2005 and 2017. The project objectives are: (i) to analyse, using the most robust quantitative data available, the association between housing conditions and costs and poverty outcomes in Europe, and how these have changed over time; (ii) to contribute to theory-development in terms of explaining the evolving association between housing systems and poverty outcomes; (iii) to advance debates in both housing studies and poverty analysis by bringing together and integrating insights and debates from these two 'disjointed' fields; (iv) through focussed dissemination and knowledge exchange activities, inform policy and practice so as to contribute to poverty reduction in Europe.

This research project will consist of a secondary analysis of quantitative data from the EU Study on Income and Living Conditions to examine these issues. SILC includes information about housing conditions and costs, household incomes, poverty and living conditions and contains data from more than half a million respondents from across the EU28 in each wave. Our research include analysis of the rotating panel element of SILC and the 2012 ad hoc module on housing conditions, both of which are under-utilised.

Our research will be of benefit to academics working in the fields of housing and poverty studies. It will lead to new synergies and will extend the state-of-the-art in these fields. It will generate new comparative evidence about how the housing-poverty association is evolving and, for those in the UK, will provide a different vantage point to consider this association, which is the subject of growing academic and policy scrutiny in the UK.

In terms of relevance beyond the academe, the research will be of relevance to policy-makers, staff at civil society organisations and the interested public. The nature of the expected non-academic impacts are: (1) to increase awareness about the significance of housing policy for poverty outcomes in Europe; (2) helping to frame potential policy alternatives by providing evidence about policy differences in other European countries and their impacts, and (3) by providing evidence that informs policy decisions.

Planned Impact

The non-academic beneficiaries of this research will be policy-makers, staff at civil society organisations, and the interested public. Our primary beneficiaries are these three groups in the UK, with their equivalents in continental Europe setting representing secondary beneficiaries.

The nature of the expected impacts are: (1) increased awareness about the significance of housing policy for poverty outcomes (i.e. the extent to which housing influences poverty trends and transitions, the likely consequences of policy inaction), (2) helping to frame potential policy alternatives (by adopting a comparative perspective, by understanding how other nations arrange their housing systems and social policies differently), (3) informing policy decisions (e.g. demonstrating which policy configurations are associated with lower poverty rates, supporting such decision-making through the provision of evidence and consultation).

The first group of non-academic beneficiaries are policy-makers (i.e. politicians and senior civil servants), primarily at Westminster and in the devolved administrations in Scotland and Wales. We expect each of the three types of impact (increased awareness; framing alternatives; informing decisions) to be relevant for policy-makers, with our research providing a cutting-edge evidence base which can help to inform decisions they need to make in these areas. Our comparative research will provide evidence about real, as opposed to purely hypothetical, policy alternatives. A less certain, but vitally important, benefit would be greater dialogue and co-operate across the ministries responsible for housing and social security. In existing knowledge exchange work at Westminster, Dr Hick has seen first-hand how these departmental boundaries can frustrate discussion of policy options requiring action that spans across ministries.

The second non-academic beneficiary are civil society organisations and think-tanks. For civil society organisations, we believe the nature of the benefit will be in terms of greater understanding of the issue and framing potential policy alternatives (#1 and 2 above). Dr Hick has observed a keen appetite for knowledge in relation to this topic amongst many groups, but studies in this area, especially comparative studies, remain sparse. The beneficiary groups include the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, Resolution Foundation, New Policy Institute, the Institute for Public Policy Research, Policy Exchange, the Trust for London, Poverty Alliance, Citizen's Advice Bureau, the Centre for Social Justice, and others. We will hold an early engagement event in month 8 to understand their knowledge needs to a greater extent but envisage that they will benefit from the comparative perspective on what is a topic of growing interest to many of them.

We believe that the secondary continental European beneficiaries are likely to be particularly relevant in the case of civil society organisations, with many such organisations taking an interest in issues related to the present research. These organisations include the European Anti-Poverty Network, the European Social Observatory, Solidar and the European Trade Union Institute. In the Pathways to Impact statement, we outline our proportionate activities to engage with, and learn from, them.

The third group of non-academic beneficiaries are the interested public. The project touches on a matter of keen public interest and debate. We expect our research to inform members of the interested public about the distinctiveness (or otherwise) of the link between housing and poverty in the UK, and, to a lesser extent, shaping views about feasible policy alternatives and reform trajectories (#1 and 2, above). The general public will be engaged primarily through media appearances and reports and non-academic outputs such as blog posts in outlets that will reach a wide UK and European audience.
 
Description A key objective for our research was to shed light on the extent to which housing trends observed in the UK are distinctive or similar to those experienced elsewhere in Europe and to this end we produced new evidence about how housing systems are changing across Europe. Our research finds that homeownership has fallen in almost all of the old EU28 (EU27 + the UK) between 2004 and 2018, including, and sometimes especially, for people living in poverty. In most of Europe this is associated with a concentration of homeownership amongst richer households - the UK and Ireland are somewhat distinctive in that reductions in homeownership are observed more broadly throughout the income distribution than has occurred elsewhere. Over the period 2004 to 2018, we also find that there has been a delay in the age at which young people leave the family home and begin to live independently (that is, on their own or with a partner). Delays for young people aged 20-25 are observed in all parts of Europe, but in Southern and Central and Eastern Europe, where independent living tends to come later, we see these delays also affecting young people aged 26-30 and even those aged 31-35. Thus, there have been quite notable changes in European housing systems, even over the relatively short period of a decade and a half.

A second key finding emerges from our work examining the European Union's severe housing deprivation measure. The EU's official measure is comprised of two components - overcrowding and the presence of one or more housing deprivations (excess darkness; a leaking roof or damp; lacking an indoor bath/shower or toilet). We show that the observed incidence of housing deprivation depends very significantly on how these two components are aggregated, though this has not received much attention in either the academic or policy literature. Our research shows that the two components that make up this indicator pattern very differently and that they relate to quite different drivers: in particular, while overcrowding is strongly associated at the country-level with levels of wealth, the deprivation of housing conditions is more strongly associated with levels of relative income poverty in each nation. This informs a recommendation that Eurostat monitor these two components of severe housing deprivation separately and, informed analysis of variation in these components, leads us to conclude that further progress on reducing housing deprivation is likely to come in terms of reducing the overcrowding rate.

Third, we observe substantial variation in the incidence of housing affordability problems on the EU's official housing cost overburden measure, which captures households who spend more than 40 per cent of their disposable household income on housing costs (where both housing costs and household incomes are net of housing allowances). Indeed, the incidence of this measure is 10: 1 between Greece (54%) and Malta (5.4%), the countries with highest and lowest incidence, respectively. These variations are not easily explained by traditional accounts such as welfare regimes. We find that aggregate, society-wide levels of housing affordability have not worsened over the period 2007-09 and 2016-18, but that underneath these aggregate trends, the position of market-rate renters has deteriorated across much of Europe relative to homeowners with mortgages. Our regression-based analysis finds that both economic and housing-specific factors influence housing affordability rates, but that economic explanations play the more dominant role and that, amongst the housing-specific explanations, policy variables are better predictors than those capturing the housing 'system'.
Exploitation Route We anticipate that our research will lead to a greater engagement between academics working on issues relating to housing and poverty, building on the theoretical and empirical integration we have undertaken as part of this project, which has sought not only to advance the state-of-the-art but also to make the case for further integration between these fields and to identify specific areas and themes where further interdisciplinary work would be fruitful (e.g. in relation to the understanding of housing market financialisation, the subject of one of our research outputs). Our engagement activities have brought together academics and practitioners and policy-makers from the fields of housing and poverty and have augmented networks of key actors in these areas. Our research findings have relevance for data collection procedures at Eurostat and our final report identifies areas where these can be improved. We also make recommendations in relation to the monitoring of housing deprivation by Eurostat. Finally, our research seeks to identify the groups most at risk of housing-related problems and the drivers of such problems at the country level, and these findings can be used to inform national policy responses to housing problems such as housing cost overburden and housing deprivation.
Sectors Communities and Social Services/Policy,Government, Democracy and Justice

 
Title The 'method' is a new measurement of housing affordability which more closely aligns with the concerns of poverty, which we are provisionally calling the 30:poverty measure. 
Description All measures of housing affordability relate housing costs to household incomes. While "ratio" measures - e.g. where households spend more than 40% of their income on housing costs - remain very popular, there is widespread recognition that not all those who spend at this level experience economic stress, and some who experience economic stress spend below this threshold. The principal alternative is a 'residual income' measure, which captures circumstances where income after housing costs is below the poverty line. This is often viewed as being theoretically preferable, but residual income may fall below the poverty line for non-housing reasons (namely, irrespective of whether housing costs are high or not, a family's income may be below the poverty line). Thus, our research shows how residual income measures do not align neatly with 'housing-induced poverty', which they have been said to identify. In our work we have examined what we have labelled a 'high cost - low income' indicator, where a household spends more than 40% of it's income on housing AND experiences poverty after housing costs. This captures the intent often behind residual income measures (namely, to identify housing-induced poverty) through the combination of two indicators. This measure is akin to the one proposed by Prof. John Hills in terms of the measurement of fuel poverty. This is a new and distinctive measure, which better captures these concerns that existing measures such as the 30:40 measure of housing stress that is popular in Australia or the various residual income measures proposed in the literature. 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Year Produced 2021 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact Our research finds that this does generate novel insights in some, but not all, areas and this has informed our understanding of the incidence of housing affordability. It does present an understanding of housing affordability as being a problem that is much more concentrated on renters than when the official EU measure is used. It remains to be seen whether this measure is received by the wider research community with interest. 
 
Description Blog post 1 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact This was an initial blog arising from our project. The aim was to raise awareness of our work and its central motivations. The blog is housed on the Social Policy Association website.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL http://www.social-policy.org.uk/spa-blog/moving-beyond-disjointed-literatures-on-the-need-for-social...
 
Description Blog post 2 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact This blog summarised the work of a chapter on comparative housing research that is an outcome from the project. It's purpose was to identify the importance of comparative study in the field of housing, the ways that that this can be conducted successfully and the lessons that can be learned from such studies. The accompanying research item has been read more than 500 times on ResearchGate so we believe that this is reaching a wide international audience.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://www.scottishhousingnews.com/articles/professor-mark-stephens-and-dr-rod-hick-comparative-hou...
 
Description Blog post 3 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Blog examining policy developments in the UK set against trends in homeownership and housing affordability over the last two decades.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://theconversation.com/tinkering-with-the-mortgage-market-wont-solve-the-uk-housing-affordabili...
 
Description Presentation at public event organised by the Bristol Poverty Institute. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Third sector organisations
Results and Impact I received an email from a policy officer at City of York Council and led to correspondence about the contribution that local authorities can make to tackling poverty.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.bristol.ac.uk/poverty-institute/news/2021/in-work-poverty-and-covid-19.html
 
Description Presentation of findings about the relationship between housing affordability and poverty in Europe at the inaugural meeting of a major new European group of researchers on poverty (the Poverty and Policy Working Group) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Close to 100 post-graduate students, researchers and others attended this talk, which led to new interactions and engagements and expressed interest about the possibilities of examining the significance of housing for poverty in a variety of international settings.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Project engagement event - webinar on housing affordability 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Third sector organisations
Results and Impact The event was a second 90 min lunchtime webinar organised by our research team. The webinar consisted of three presentations, including one by our team and others delivered by a Dutch academic and Irish policy analyst at a leading civil society organisation. The purpose of the webinar was to engage staff at civil society organisations and policy-makers about a pressing policy issue - namely, the problem of unaffordable housing and the extent to which this was leading to poverty.

37 staff at civil society organisations, politicians and post-graduate students from multiple European countries participated at the webinar. It led to discussion on the day and subsequent correspondence, including for further information about our final project report and findings.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://twitter.com/housingmatters0/status/1491012293857280000
 
Description Project engagement event - webinar on housing deprivation 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Third sector organisations
Results and Impact We organised a 90 min lunchtime webinar organised around the theme of housing deprivation. The webinar consisted of three presentations - one delivered by me and the other two by staff at leading European civil society organisations in relation to housing and poverty (FEANTSA and Housing Europe). The purpose of the event was to engage with staff at key civil society organisations across Europe working on issues related to housing quality and poverty, so as to better understand their research needs and priorities and to receive feedback on our draft work so that we could identify more clearly the implications of our emerging findings for policy.

25 attendees from 7 European countries attended this event. It led to subsequent email correspondence with some attendees and requests to be kept informed about subsequent events and outputs.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://twitter.com/RodHick/status/1405872994266849286
 
Description Talk at an online event hosted by the Nuffield Foundation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact I gave a talk at an online event hosted by the Nuffield Foundation, at which some emergent findings from this project were presented. This raised awareness of the project and reached approx 20 policy-makers and researchers.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/events/pay-insecurity-before-and-after-the-covid-19-crisis
 
Description Talk delivered by Prof. Mark Stephens at a Polish industry webinar on housing affordability 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Talk on trends in housing affordability delivered at a Polish industry event focussing on housing affordability. Led to follow-up expressions of interest and engagement with our underpinning research, which featured in the presentation delivered here.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://konferencje.bank.pl/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/PABWIB-2022.18-2022.12.08-Program.pdf
 
Description Webinar launching final project report 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Third sector organisations
Results and Impact approximately 50 people attended out final webinar where we presented key project findings and had responses from two discussants - one academic (Prof. Becky Tunstall) and one senior civil society actor (Freek Spinnewijn, Director of FEANTSA, a major European homelessness agency).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://twitter.com/housingmatters0/status/1518519903224881158
 
Description Workshop between Cardiff University and DWP staff 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact The event was a half-day closed-door workshop with presentations delivered by a small number of staff at Cardiff University and staff at the Department for Work and Pensions (Areas of Research Interest series). This sparked interest in our work and led to an invitation to share results at a later stage.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021