FATHUM: Forecasts for AnTicipatory HUManitarian action
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Oxford
Department Name: Sch of Anthropology & Museum Ethnography
Abstract
Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.
Planned Impact
The research proposed in FATHUM has been designed to both strengthen the significant investment in 'Forecast-based Financing' pilot studies from several governmental donors and to inform policy within UN initiatives which feature FbF, such as 'Anticipate, Absorb, Reshape' (A2R), launched at COP21. FATHUM will combine research excellence with development and capacity-building impact. These joint considerations are embedded in the programme of work from the outset.
The intended beneficiaries of the research are spread across a variety of scales.
FATHUM will enable national Red Cross Societies and the World Food Programme to reach local communities with targeted and appropriate humanitarian action in advance of a disaster occurring, thereby reducing the impact of disasters on lives and livelihoods
FATHUM will strengthen the national capacity of the Mozambique Red Cross Society and Uganda Red Cross Society to implement and evaluate ongoing Forecast-based Financing pilot studies, as well as linking with similar pilot projects in Tanzania, Ethiopia and Togo through the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. It will also help to develop operational forecasting capabilities and influence national policymakers to strengthen early warning systems in these countries.
FATHUM will grow the capabilities of international actors such as Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, the World Food Programme, the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) and others to integrate the best scientific-expertise into their Forecast-based Financing operations.
FATHUM will make a timely contribution to international disaster risk reduction and resilience frameworks and policy development, including the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and A2R. It will produce findings that will influence policies around early-warning, preparedness and anticipation within organisations such as the UK Department for International Development, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, and the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Food and Agriculture Organisation and World Food Programme.
The research findings are intended to inform the future development and implementation of international development and humanitarian policies and mechanisms, and to provide current and potential FbF donors with recommendations and tools to better understand and engage with mechanisms for science-based decision-making to help apply uncertain forecasts for early and informed action before a disaster, thereby benefitting those people most vulnerable to climate-related disasters.
The intended beneficiaries of the research are spread across a variety of scales.
FATHUM will enable national Red Cross Societies and the World Food Programme to reach local communities with targeted and appropriate humanitarian action in advance of a disaster occurring, thereby reducing the impact of disasters on lives and livelihoods
FATHUM will strengthen the national capacity of the Mozambique Red Cross Society and Uganda Red Cross Society to implement and evaluate ongoing Forecast-based Financing pilot studies, as well as linking with similar pilot projects in Tanzania, Ethiopia and Togo through the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. It will also help to develop operational forecasting capabilities and influence national policymakers to strengthen early warning systems in these countries.
FATHUM will grow the capabilities of international actors such as Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, the World Food Programme, the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) and others to integrate the best scientific-expertise into their Forecast-based Financing operations.
FATHUM will make a timely contribution to international disaster risk reduction and resilience frameworks and policy development, including the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and A2R. It will produce findings that will influence policies around early-warning, preparedness and anticipation within organisations such as the UK Department for International Development, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, and the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Food and Agriculture Organisation and World Food Programme.
The research findings are intended to inform the future development and implementation of international development and humanitarian policies and mechanisms, and to provide current and potential FbF donors with recommendations and tools to better understand and engage with mechanisms for science-based decision-making to help apply uncertain forecasts for early and informed action before a disaster, thereby benefitting those people most vulnerable to climate-related disasters.
Publications
De Wit S
(2021)
Gender and climate change as new development tropes of vulnerability for the Global South: essentializing gender discourses in Maasailand, Tanzania
in Tapuya: Latin American Science, Technology and Society
De Wit S
(2021)
Climate change reception studies in anthropology
in WIREs Climate Change
Dilling L
(2019)
Is adaptation success a flawed concept?
in Nature Climate Change
Emerton R
(2020)
Emergency flood bulletins for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth: A critical evaluation of the use of global flood forecasts for international humanitarian preparedness and response
in International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
| Description | What promotes or inhibits the use of uncertain forecasts in humanitarianism? A positive development that has enhanced the use of forecasts over the past years is that the worldwide donor support for and interest in anticipatory humanitarian action is rapidly increasing. However, there is still limited understanding on how to successfully implement Forecast-based Financing, and on how to effectively communicate and deal with uncertain knowledge both for scientists and practitioners on the ground. While forecasting methods are increasingly becoming more accurate, the question of (1) what constitutes uncertainty in climate information and how to confront it (both regarding the probability of an event to actually happen and its magnitude) - and (2) the related fear to 'act in vain' for humanitarian organisations - form obstacles for the effective use of climate information for anticipatory action. At the same time, there appears to be disagreement and misunderstanding between scientists and humanitarians about how, when and whether to make use of data that is inherently uncertain. Whereas at times the lack of reliability in the forecast impedes effective anticipatory action, in a similar vein, uncertain climate information has been used in contexts where not sufficient 'forecast skill' has been identified by the scientists. This has led the latter group to worry about the ways in which their knowledge is used. By some scientists a concern with 'business-minded' services has been pointed out that 'oversells' forecast skill while withholding uncertainties, potentially leading to a mismatch of user expectations and reality. Furthermore, several humanitarians have pointed out that weather/ climate information and knowledge is often very complicated for them to understand and thus inhibits effective action. Yet, the question remains whether more knowledge (and less uncertainty) will necessarily help to improve local decision-making processes. Forecast-based Financing: A changing rhetoric? Whereas forecasts are often thought of as neutral instruments that predict the future based on objective science, social scientists like Steve Rayner have argued that forecasts or climate models are not only mediating between nature and humans, but are also instruments of political mediation. In my research, we found that forecast-based financing has entailed not just a temporal shift to act earlier, but it has brought about a political and moral reconfiguration of the Humanitarian imperative: namely, who are those people in need? In other words, we are dealing with a temporal shift with moral implications: From acting based on actual human needs to acting based on future risk (and uncertain forecast information). In terms of monitoring and evaluation this entails that humanitarians now have to demonstrate that instead of saving lives, they have prevented lives from being lost, which is a lot more complicated and requires a lot of baseline data to compare ex ante aid. |
| Exploitation Route | A better understanding of institutional barriers for a successful use of uncertain forecasts will be useful for forecast users' needs, mainly humanitarian and development actors. |
| Sectors | Communities and Social Services/Policy,Environment,Other |
| Description | Because a successful implementation of Forecast-based Financing is understood differently by different stakeholders, I have contributed to Seasonal forecast toolkit on 'How to use season weather forecasts with other information for DRR/ Preparedness', which addressed the question what kind of information/ data needs to be taken into account in addition to scientific forecasts to anticipate natural disasters. In my input I emphasized that more attention needs to be paid to understanding not only local vulnerabilities and needs, but also existing adaptive capacity, risk perceptions and local power structures. |
| Impact Types | Policy & public services |
| Description | Participation in a Seasonal Forecast Learning Workshop |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | During this learning workshop, different stakeholders were present, including scientists/ hydrologists/ forecast verification analysts/ social scientists/ humanitarians and other users of forecasts. This workshop resulted in the development of a policy relevant document - Seasonal forecast toolkit - on 'How to use seasonal weather forecasts with other information for DRR/ Preparedness', which addresses the question of what kind of information/ data needs to be taken into account in addition to scientific forecasts to anticipate natural disasters and identify the needs on the ground. The dissemination of this seasonal forecast tool is designed to support decision-makers/ users of forecasts (mainly humanitarians) to take meaningful decisions based on uncertain forecasts. |
| Description | Systematic framework for post event trigger evaluation for anticipatory humanitarian action |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
| Impact | Humanitarian anticipatory action provides an opportunity to take action in advance of extreme events to reduce impacts. But by definition extreme events are rare and difficult to predict. Every time an event is forecast (or missed) and anticipatory action is taken, it provides a valuable opportunity to learn about the links between forecast skill and the decision-making process. For some funds there is a formal requirement to complete a trigger review after funding has been disbursed (e.g. FbA by the DREF). Humanitarians are well versed in evaluating the effectiveness of their actions and there is detailed guidance available on how to do this. But little guidance exists on linking technical trigger review with an evaluation of the actions. An effective trigger review should also consider the potential impact the underlying model had on reducing impacts from the event. Thereby improving confidence in the process and the effectiveness of actions in the future. A post event trigger review can improve understanding of: 1. How the model represented reality - did the model identify the hazard in the right location at the right time, and if not was there some physical reason for this? 2. The actionability of the forecast - did the right people get the right information at the right time? 3. Vulnerability to the hazard - did impacts start to occur at the system threshold? Were the impacts those expected or were there additional impacts that occurred? 4. Availability of other data sources - was there any other data or products used that could be incorporated into the EAP in the future? One false alarm is not enough to warrant re-evaluation of the trigger or forecast model. Acting in vain is to be expected on occasion. Questions around the overall suitability of a forecast model, or the probability/frequency of an event occurring, should be addressed through the detailed model skill assessment when setting up the Early Action Protocol. Building up a body of evidence from post event trigger reviews will help support this process in the long term. Recognising that the burden of proof can be quite substantial in terms of finances and human resources for humanitarian organisations, this trigger review is not intended to be another call for 'the need for more evidence' in the system, but rather a reflective tool to improve it. |
| Description | Workshop for hydrologists on the social life of floods |
| Geographic Reach | Africa |
| Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
| Impact | In the summer of 2019, the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre funded the training of African hydrologists in the use of GloFAS (Global Flood Awareness System/ Copernicus). During the workshop/ training - together with my colleague Dr Andrea Ficchi (Reading University) - we educated these hydrologists from Africa about how flood forecasts are used for the anticipation of floods, in the so-called Forecast-based Financing (FbF). My role as a social scientist, was to explain the 'social life' of floods. This means that natural disasters are never purely natural events/ hazards and are profoundly shaped by socio-political and cultural factors and always need to be situated in longer historical trajectories and policies. For example, it is often the case that people who live in flood-prone areas (in our research areas) are those who are already marginal and vulnerable. An important implication of this knowledge is that weather or flood forecasts have performative effects and require reflexivity from the side of the policy-makers on questions of uncertainty, risk and protection of people who live in flood-prone areas. When do you warn a community or decide to evacuate in face of uncertain information without causing unnecessary harm? These questions have moral and political underpinnings and always need to be treated as such but are not addressed in the education of these hydrologists, who are trained in the technical skills of hydrology only. After the training, a few participants remarked that this workshop has changed their view on floods forever. |
| Title | Coordination of a methods workshop in Uganda |
| Description | Coordination and teaching of collaborative methodology workshop to train researchers in Uganda, Mozambique and South Africa on qualitative research methods, such as participant observation, semi-structured survey design and focus group discussions. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2017 |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | This methods workshop resulted in the development of a methodology paper that guides ongoing research in Uganda, Mozambique and South Africa respectively, to compare across different research sites. |
| Title | Systematic framework for post event trigger evaluation for anticipatory humanitarian action |
| Description | Humanitarian anticipatory action provides an opportunity to take action in advance of extreme events to reduce impacts. But by definition extreme events are rare and difficult to predict. Every time an event is forecast (or missed) and anticipatory action is taken, it provides a valuable opportunity to learn about the links between forecast skill and the decision-making process. A post event trigger review can improve understanding of: How the model represented reality - did the model identify the hazard in the right location at the right time, and if not was there some physical reason for this? The actionability of the forecast - did the right people get the right information at the right time? Vulnerability to the hazard - did impacts start to occur at the system threshold? Were the impacts those expected or were there additional impacts that occurred? Availability of other data sources - was there any other data or products used that could be incorporated into the EAP in the future? One false alarm is not enough to warrant re-evaluation of the trigger or forecast model. Acting in vain is to be expected on occasion. Questions around the overall suitability of a forecast model, or the probability/frequency of an event occurring, should be addressed through the detailed model skill assessment when setting up the EAP. Building up a body of evidence from post event trigger reviews will help support this process in the long term. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Still in testing phase. |
| Description | Brigstow Seedcorn Funding - How to make flood data more useful |
| Organisation | University of Bristol |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | We are currently developing a survey and research pathway to understand the ways in which flood forecasting data can be made more useful to practitioners such as humanitarians/ governments/ and other practitioners in the field of flood anticipation. We are holding a first workshop in Oxford in May, which I co-organise. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Our partners in Bristol are co-designing the survey/ questionnaire and are thinking about which partners we should include in our research. |
| Impact | Multi-disciplinary: social-cultural anthropology/ human and physical geography/ flood data specialists/ hydrologists. |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | Action research focus group with humanitarians working on Forecast-based Financing |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | This focus group identified user needs from a humanitarian perspective and addressed questions on how to better communicate policy needs to forecast developers, and elicit stakeholder collaboration with research and output design. Also some of the institutional barriers for a successful implementation of FbF were identified, in addition to limits in forecast skill. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Coordination of the SHEAR Early-Career Researcher annual meeting |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | Coordination of a cross-consortium annual SHEAR Early-Career Researchers (ECRs) meeting in February 2018 ("SHEAR Early-Career Exploratory Network meeting") at the University of Reading - together with Andrea Ficchì (FATHUM, University of Reading), Dave MacLeod (ForPAc, University of Oxford). All the UK-based ECRs from the four SHEAR projects were invited to network, present ongoing research and discuss potential collaborations to promote the cross-project collaboration. The exchange of our research in a multi- and interdisciplinary perspective created new insights from our different backgrounds and revealed some of the similarities and differences between the projects and identified avenues for future collaboration. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Development and co-design of a flood survey |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Brigstow Institute - Seedcorn Project Together with researchers from Bristol University and the University of Reading, we organised an online workshop to develop the flood survey on 'how to make flood data more useful'. The main aim of this workshop has been to understand the user needs (humanitarian practitioners/ disaster risk managers and policy makers) and to guide scientists to make their information actionable and communicate it in understandable ways to humanitarian practitioners. The first phase included the development of a flood survey that is currently being carried out among a wide variety of professional practitioners. The following questions are addressed: 1. What do organisations want from scientists? 2. How does this need to be presented? 3. And what are the timeframes required? |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Focus group discussions and interviews with UN OCHA, World Food Programme and Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Several stakeholder engagement meetings and focus group discussions have been organised to take multiple organisations' perspectives and stakeholder views into account for the development of the post-event trigger evaluation. This is important because different donors and organisations have different risk portfolios regarding their 'appetite' to act in vain. Trigger thresholds consist of such organisational preferences and take into account how frequently an extreme event is expected to occur. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Global Dialogue Platform (German Red Cross) - stakeholder engagement meeting for developing the post trigger evaluation |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | To develop a concise document that can guide practitioners and scientists in the field of anticipatory humanitarian action. To know which questions to ask after a scientific threshold has been reached that can improve decision-making we organised several participatory events and workshops and included as many different kind of stakeholders as possible. - We asked: what can and cannot be learned from the physical world after a single event and what can be learned operationally? |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | HiWeather conference - presentation of post trigger evaluation |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
| Results and Impact | Together with scientist Linda Speight (University of Reading) we presented our ongoing work on the post trigger guidance document. The group mainly consisted of other hydrologists/ flood forecasters and scientists. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Policy report for the UN |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | I have written a report for UN OCHA. This report was intended to coordinate the Anticipatory language better between humanitarians, development actors, donors and other actors in the field of anticipatory humanitarian action. This report has been published as a working draft in June 2019 and has sparked lively debates between different actors. The Red Cross developed an online game on the basis of this report that is called: The million dollar question. Where does early action begin and end? The title of the report is called: Acting Ahead of Crises: A Thesaurus for Anticipatory Humanitarian Action. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Presentation at MODEL-POL workshop (Undertanding the uses of mathematical model in policy-making) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presentation of FATHUM work to an interdisciplinary work group of scholars researching the uses of mathematical models in policy-making. Feedback on conceptual issues emerging from FATHUM fieldwork. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.insis.ox.ac.uk/understanding-uses-mathematical-models-policy-making-model-pol |
| Description | Presentation of preliminary research findings during the Red Cross Dialogue Platform in Berlin |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | The joint-FATHUM presentation fostered an important discussion on how and when forecasts can be used meaningfully for anticipatory humanitarian action, and also pointed out its limitations. It sparked debate between forecast users: humanitarians from different international NGOs, mostly Red Cross members from different national societies, but also WFP, FAO, ODI, UN OCHA, START Network/ forecasters and scientists: UK MET office, IRI, Red Cross Climate Centre. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | UR2020 Conference understanding risk - "Access the Past and Foretell the Future: Peering into the Crystal Ball of Early Action" - Organised by NASA and IFRC |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Participation in conference session on understanding risk, which brought together both practitioners in the field of early humanitarian action, donor organisations and natural scientists and social scientists. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |