Revealing the hidden effects of anthropogenic disturbance on the spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Glasgow
Department Name: College of Medical, Veterinary, Life Sci
Abstract
Globally, natural ecosystems are under threat due to the ever increasing pressures imposed by human activities. Many ecosystems are becoming fragmented or are being eroded at the edges while the effects of human disturbance are being felt even at the core of protected areas. Often, the impact of human activity or human-altered environments is obvious: when natural habitats are destroyed animals that can't escape will perish; humans directly harvest wild animals through poaching, hunting or fishing; infrastructure, such as wind turbines or roads, lead to collisions that kill animals; while diseases can spread from livestock and decimate wild populations. Beyond these direct impacts, much research has shown how humans can have more subtle effects on animals. For example, human activities can induce avoidance behaviour and restrict access to vital foraging areas, increase stress and vigilance levels, and interfere with sensory mechanisms by introducing noise and light into environments. While not as obvious, these indirect effects can have large impacts since many animals operate at the edge of their physiological limits whereby their energetic demands are finely balanced with resource availability, and weakened individuals can quickly succumb to predators, parasites, or disease. This means that even subtle impacts of human activity can significantly reduce the probability that an animal will survive and reproduce, which in turn can translate to large and sudden declines in the population.
In this research we will investigate the effects of increased human pressures on the migratory population of wildebeest, a keystone species that inhabit the Greater Serengeti ecosystem in East Africa. We will assess how human disturbance is changing how animals move, how much time they spend consuming resources as opposed to being vigilant, and how these factors are affecting their body condition. We will test if these effects alter the survival probability of individuals and the chance that they have viable offspring.
To evaluate the effects of human disturbance on movement and activities, we will use GPS devices and activity sensors mounted on collars that we will deploy on migratory wildebeest, combined with a comprehensive description of the distribution of resources (vegetation and soil nutrient maps) and risks (location of human infrastructure, tourism, illegal hunting activities, and natural predation). The GPS collars and sensors will allow us to track animals and determine how they respond to these environmental features, both in terms of how they move around in space, and how much time they allocate to different activities. To assess how body condition affects survival and reproduction we will analyse metabolites that get deposited in wildebeest tail hair as it grows. We will firstly calibrate our analysis on animals of known body condition, and then use this method to assess the body condition of animals that have died of different causes. This will allow us to estimate how poor body condition reduces a wildebeest's probability of survival. Using a similar analysis we will determine whether animals have reproduced and use field surveys to measure calf survival rates.
To understand how indirect effects of humans scale-up to impact the resilience of the population, we will use Integral Projection Models, a framework that will allow us to use data at the individual level to predict what will happen at the population level. By combining empirical data collection with mathematical models that link individual vital rates with population dynamics, we can ask what happens to the population abundance if human activities increase in specific areas, or if climate change leads to different distributions of resources. This research will be one of the most detailed assessments of the effects of humans on an ecosystem and will provide scientists and managers with vital information about how to keep ecosystems resilient in the future.
In this research we will investigate the effects of increased human pressures on the migratory population of wildebeest, a keystone species that inhabit the Greater Serengeti ecosystem in East Africa. We will assess how human disturbance is changing how animals move, how much time they spend consuming resources as opposed to being vigilant, and how these factors are affecting their body condition. We will test if these effects alter the survival probability of individuals and the chance that they have viable offspring.
To evaluate the effects of human disturbance on movement and activities, we will use GPS devices and activity sensors mounted on collars that we will deploy on migratory wildebeest, combined with a comprehensive description of the distribution of resources (vegetation and soil nutrient maps) and risks (location of human infrastructure, tourism, illegal hunting activities, and natural predation). The GPS collars and sensors will allow us to track animals and determine how they respond to these environmental features, both in terms of how they move around in space, and how much time they allocate to different activities. To assess how body condition affects survival and reproduction we will analyse metabolites that get deposited in wildebeest tail hair as it grows. We will firstly calibrate our analysis on animals of known body condition, and then use this method to assess the body condition of animals that have died of different causes. This will allow us to estimate how poor body condition reduces a wildebeest's probability of survival. Using a similar analysis we will determine whether animals have reproduced and use field surveys to measure calf survival rates.
To understand how indirect effects of humans scale-up to impact the resilience of the population, we will use Integral Projection Models, a framework that will allow us to use data at the individual level to predict what will happen at the population level. By combining empirical data collection with mathematical models that link individual vital rates with population dynamics, we can ask what happens to the population abundance if human activities increase in specific areas, or if climate change leads to different distributions of resources. This research will be one of the most detailed assessments of the effects of humans on an ecosystem and will provide scientists and managers with vital information about how to keep ecosystems resilient in the future.
Publications
Anderson T
(2024)
Interplay of competition and facilitation in grazing succession by migrant Serengeti herbivores
in Science
Kavwele C
(2022)
Non-local effects of human activity on the spatial distribution of migratory wildlife in Serengeti National Park, Tanzania
in Ecological Solutions and Evidence
Stabach J
(2022)
Increasing Anthropogenic Disturbance Restricts Wildebeest Movement Across East African Grazing Systems
in Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution
Tucker MA
(2023)
Behavioral responses of terrestrial mammals to COVID-19 lockdowns.
in Science (New York, N.Y.)
Description | Predicting the consequences of climate change through integration of physiological and behavioural responses into animal movement models |
Amount | £67,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NIF\R1\202408 |
Organisation | The Royal Society |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 02/2022 |
End | 02/2024 |
Description | THE EFFECTS OF ANTHROPOGENIC DISTURBANCE ON THE SPATIOTEMPORAL DYNAMICS OF ANIMAL POPULATIONS |
Amount | £70,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | 2608435 |
Organisation | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 10/2021 |
End | 09/2025 |
Title | Solar powered GPS and acclermoter for monitoring movement and behaviour of migratory ungulates |
Description | - Solar powered GPS and acclermoter that uses a LoRa WAN network to communicate the fine scale movement and behaviour of migratory ungulates - unique feature is an on-board data processor that runs an algorithm to classify the behaviour of the animal based on the signature of a 6-axis accelerometer measuring at a rate of 5Hz. |
Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
Year Produced | 2023 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | - significantly increases the battery life of animal-borne telemetry equipment - significant decrease in the cost associated with monitoring individual movement and behaviour - on-board processors reduce the amount of data transmitted but are able to reduce the post-hoc analysis required |
Title | Bayesian integrated step selection function |
Description | We implemented hierarchical versions of integrated step selection functions in Stan. This allows for the inclusion of different types of random effects to be included in the analysis. |
Type Of Material | Data analysis technique |
Year Produced | 2023 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | The approach allows to obtain samples of posterior distributions for hierarchical models of integrated spet selection functions. Thus, proper uncertainty quantification is. obtained. |
URL | https://github.com/jmmorales/iSSF |
Description | Frankfurt Zoological Society (FZS) |
Organisation | Frankfurt Zoological Society |
Country | Germany |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | - providing scientifc advice on conservation strategies - coordinating collaborative meetings between stakeholders, researchers and managers - providing training opportunities for employees - analysis of conservation related data and feeding information to partner organizations |
Collaborator Contribution | - in kind contributions to research in terms of equipment, transportation, and field logistics - financial support for some of the monitoring activities - facilitation and introductions to key in-country partnerships |
Impact | - joint publications - technical reports about threatened species - joint interviews as part of public outreach and engagement - reports regarding threats to the ecosystem, and summaries of animal abundance and distribution |
Description | Tanzania National Parks (TANAPA) |
Organisation | Tanzania National Parks |
Country | Tanzania, United Republic of |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | - Development and trouble shooting of the LoRa WAN network for tracking animals in protected areas - Development and discussion regarding policies about mass-tourism and ways in which to mitigate the ecological impacts - Development of monitoring tools that feed into the the adapative management strategies of protected areas |
Collaborator Contribution | - Facilitation of tourism data - Availing GIS base layers about the ecosystem - facilitation with resource protection data |
Impact | - internal reports and presentations about the ecological effects of mass-tourism - monthly reports on ecological trends from the ecosystem - reports and publications about the effects of different management policies particularly to managing the boundaries of the ecosystem - reports and publications about estimating the abundance of keystone species |
Description | Tanzania Wildlife Research Institute (TAWIRI) |
Organisation | Tanzania Wildlife Research Institute |
Country | Tanzania, United Republic of |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Engaging with researchers at TAWIRI to develop and improve techniques for estimating the distribution and abundance of animals through GPS tracking, automated identification of animals from camera traps, and pipelines for the enumeration and calculation population size from wildlife census data. |
Collaborator Contribution | - joint training workshops on animal movement - training on machine learning and application to image recognition algorithms - assigned staff from TAWIRI to work on collaborative projects - facilitation of national research permts by TAWIRI for our research |
Impact | - collaborations on grant applications and award - national reports on animal abundance and population status - co-authored publications |
Description | Greater Serengeti-Mara Conservation Society |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | - a 3 day meeting to discuss threats to the Serengeti ecosystem and to strategize about joint management interventions from both the Tanzanian and Kenya side of the ecoystem and across multiple investors and stakeholders - we develop agenda for the meeting and focus on scientifically-informed decisions |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Mweka Wildlife College |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | - 4-part presentation from members of our research team about monitoring threats and attributes to ecological processes, understanding animal response to environmental factors, the impacts of anthropogenic activity, and developing tools to monitor animal behaviour |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Netherlands Ecological Research Network |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | - plenary speaker at the annual conference |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |