UQ4FM: Uncertainty Quantification for Flood Modelling

Lead Research Organisation: University of Edinburgh
Department Name: Sch of Engineering

Abstract

Currently 6.4 million people, as well as critical infrastructure such as road, rail and power networks, are exposed to flood risk across the UK, and this is expected to rise to 10.8 million people and encompass further critical assets by 2080. The 2020 National Risk Register places flooding behind only pandemics and large-scale attacks as the most significant risks to the UK. Despite this, routine flood risk assessments for planning, development and adaptation purposes use deterministic methods to assess flood hazard, using hydro-dynamic process-based models which are computationally heavy (~hours to ~weeks run time). This established process fails to acknowledge, quantify and capture the cascading uncertainties inherent in the process, which manifest from a wide range of sources including climate scenarios, flow gauging, extreme value estimates and hydrological models. Under estimation of current and future flood hazard could lead to what the Government's Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) terms 'lock-in' and under-engineered adaptation measures, whilst over-estimation could lead to financially non-viable schemes and inappropriate development.

The flood analytics industry must urgently move towards probabilistic methods which acknowledge and quantify cascading uncertainties; but this requires yet-to-be developed algorithms which capture the critical uncertainties within the process and reduce the computational burden associated with forward Uncertainty Quantification (UQ).

This project will deliver the speed up required to robustly assess flood hazard uncertainty through the development of novel and bespoke uncertainty quantification algorithms for inundation modelling; and by demonstrating their applicability to the prediction of current and future flood hazards at a range of scales, incorporating a wide range of uncertainties in the modelling chain. Success will deliver the step change needed by the flood analytics industry to embrace the necessary transition to UQ assessment, thus placing the UK at the forefront of flooding research, and future proofing climate change adaptation.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Title Software tool 
Description The LISFLOOD simulation outputs, figure data, numerical codes and files f are available at https://github.com/asiripat/Inverurie UQ. 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Year Produced 2025 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact This will become open source once published 
 
Description Collaboration with Arup 
Organisation Arup Group
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution Interest in making the UQ methods fit for purpose for industry - collaboration with Arup through meetings and agreement to second a team member
Collaborator Contribution Active participation through secondment model and through providing case studies
Impact None yet - early stage
Start Year 2024
 
Description Collaboration with HydroNation Chair programme 
Organisation University of Stirling
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Development of new bids furthering the climate extreme research: NERC funded MOT4Rivers and new proposals. The Uncertainty Quantification methods are of significant interest to HNC
Collaborator Contribution Co-creation of proposals
Impact MOT4Rivers (NE/X01620X/1)
Start Year 2022
 
Description Kaya Consulting 
Organisation Kaya Consulting LTD
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution We have collaborated to develop a number of industry relevant research frameworks. This includes the development of uncertainty methods which could be used in industry and the exploration of 'big data' for the use with in flood vulnerability assessments. This work is ongoing. We have developed research in the uncertainty methods fields and in to use household level vulnerability data.
Collaborator Contribution The inkind contributions from industry is in the form of time from the company Director - who is keen to see direct benefit from applied research for furthering understanding in flood risk [exposure and vulnerability] assessments.
Impact A paper in 2018 coauthored on uncertainty and one on vulnerability is pending.
Start Year 2017
 
Description Chair of Panel 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Royal Statistical Society Edinburgh local group - chaired panel on statistics for tackling the climate crisis. 27 November 2024 (UQ for policy)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
 
Description Invited speaker for Peace and Justice Group 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Invited speaker to discuss the implications of recent flood events and climate change influences on our weather,
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
 
Description Mathematical Models for Twenty-First Century Decisions: A Mathematics for Humanity workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Invited talk about emulation for uncertainty quantification at the International Centre for Mathematical Sciences
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
 
Description Presentation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact November 24 - invited talk for Environment Agency - covered SEPA and NRW as well
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
 
Description Stakeholder meeting (February 25) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Group meeting updating progress to a wide group of stakeholders
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2025
 
Description Video 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Short video on the importance of quantifying uncertainty for flood risk planning
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024