Revolution in the Sky? Commercial Airliner Technology and the Greening of Air Travel

Lead Research Organisation: University of Edinburgh
Department Name: Research Centre for Social Sciences

Abstract

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Description Detailed historical accounts of key greener airliner technologies were produced through a combination of archival research, interviews, and thorough scrutiny of the available literature (including specialist journals and reports). More fuel-efficient technologies that could reduce aviation's environmental impacts include lighter structural materials such as carbon fibre, more efficient turboprop engines, and more aerodynamic airframes such as flying wings. However, these have either been introduced very slowly (carbon fibre), only used for certain short-haul routes (turboprop engines), or have not been used at all in civil aircraft (flying wings and laminar flow control).

The key research question is why such technologies have not been used more substantively to produce greener aircraft. Since the introduction of the Boeing 707 in 1958 most subsequent airliners have followed a paradigmatic dominant design - a fuselage with swept-wings powered by 'jet' engines and largely constructed of aluminium. Even though improving fuel efficiency would be a 'win-win' solution - reducing costs and environmental impacts - this has come about mainly through incremental rather than radical technological innovation.

To understand the factors that favour incremental rather than radical innovation, this project used case studies to investigate the theoretical perspectives of 'lock-in' (path dependence through 'increasing returns' and 'network externalities') and 'technological transitions'. These detailed empirical case studies point to particular barriers to more radical greener solutions. The most significant factors stem from the risk-averse nature of the aviation industry. Not only is there an obvious priority on avoiding high-profile disasters that kill hundreds of people, but also designing a new aircraft is a lengthy and expensive process. The commercial risks are thus also very high, and the experience of the British De Havilland Comet - the world's first jet airliner - provided a salutary lesson on how new designs can also introduce unknown dangers. Three fatal crashes in the mid-1950s as a result of metal fatigue showed that radical innovation often brings new risks.

Any new airliner design must be approved by the regulatory authority (e.g. the American Federal Aviation Administration), and this process again favours incremental rather than radical innovation. Regulation of such complex technologies necessarily involves considerable trust as the regulators must rely to a large extent on the industry to carry out most data collection, and much of its analysis. Given the limited ability of tests to mimic operational practice, the FAA's judgements about performance rely heavily on the belief that the proven record of earlier generations of airliners can be extrapolated to each new generation, so long as the technologies used are considered sufficiently similar.

This risk-averse innovation system exacerbates the phenomenon of 'path dependence', whereby once a particular technology is adopted it becomes 'locked in' as it gains further investment at the expense of alternative approaches, and thus gets improved, and as it becomes embedded into society (for example in necessary infrastructure). In addition, social attitudes to aviation can present an obstacle to greener aircraft, when, for example, the public's expectations regarding noise, comfort, and speed are in conflict with technical alternatives that could reduce GHG emissions.
Exploitation Route This research can inform policy-makers and aviation managers. Traditional polices aimed at encouraging greener technologies typically follow two approaches: seeking to produce innovative environmental solutions by supporting R&D; and/or providing financial incentives, usually through taxation or regulatory fines that aim to internalise environmental costs. Typically, the latter types of policy are effective in reducing environmental damage, but only through incremental improvements of existing approaches. However, incremental innovation can lock-in outdated practices, and limit the potential for making a 'step-change' in environmental performance.

Stimulating radical innovation is difficult, and this research shows that supporting R&D, whilst necessary, is clearly not sufficient. Radical new airliner technologies suffer from a 'Catch-22' effect. In-principle benefits, demonstrated in tests, provide insufficient evidence to convince risk-averse managers to sanction adoption of a technology for operational aircraft, but the only evidence that would convince them requires that such technologies are used operationally.

To overcome this type of lock-in thus requires R&D in innovative greener aircraft technologies to be supplemented by support for more realistic testing, and ideally sponsorship of operational use. 'Technology-push' must thus be coupled with 'demand-pull' to provide practical evidence that radical greener aviation technologies are both safe and sufficiently reliable for day-to-day use.
Sectors Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Environment,Transport
URL http://greeningairtravel.wordpress.com
 
Description The main outcomes of this research centre on academic understanding and policy framing of environmental transitions, specifically as regards the factors involved in inhibiting or slowing such transitions in aviation. More fuel-efficient technologies that could reduce aviation's environmental impacts include lighter structural materials such as carbon fibre, more efficient turboprop engines, and more aerodynamic airframes using flying wings and/or laminar flow control. However, these have either been introduced very slowly (carbon fibre), only used for certain short-haul routes (turboprop engines), or have not been used at all in civil aircraft (flying wings and laminar flow control). In addition, more automated air traffic control/management systems could enable existing aircraft (with the limited addition of new avionics) and new aircraft to be more fuel efficient, and perhaps also to reduce the warming effects that result from clouds stimulated by aircraft condensation trails. Again, although predicted over thirty years ago, such automation has been very slow to happen. The aim of this research was to further understanding of why these apparently feasible technical routes to greener aviation have not been adopted more quickly. The results of this research have been mainly disseminated through conference presentations and academic papers. The broadest possible academic impact has been achieved by targeting a diverse range of relevant journals (specifically in the disciplines of innovation studies, organisation studies, science and technology studies, and history of technology). In addition, collaboration and joint authorship on some of these outputs helped to broaden their potential readership and influence. The first paper on US air traffic management (ATM) and greener air travel was published on-line on 11 December 2014 (others are in press for 2015 publication or under review). In an email to Spinardi on 19 December, the leading figure in the development of this technology at NASA Ames Research Center in California described this paper as 'a unique and badly needed analysis of the evolution of ATM history' and said that he 'will distribute the paper to our staff in hopes that they will learn from it as well as gain an appreciation of struggles in the recent past'. In addition, Washington Post journalist Chris Mooney emailed Spinardi on 18 December and subsequently telephoned to discuss whether he would write 'about this idea of automating air traffic control to save energy'. The Energy Research & Social Science paper was referred to, and Spinardi was quoted, in the article 'EPA moves toward limits on emissions from US airlines' by Chris Mooney in the Washington Post on 10 June 2015. As this indicates, although there has to date been little demonstrable impact from this activity, the project has involved on-going interaction with key actors in aviation research, particularly in NASA. In addition to aiming for the widest possible academic impact, the dissemination activities have also sought to engage potential non-academic users who contributed to the research. As part of the writing up process interviewees are sent draft papers, and engaged in further discussion. Previous experience shows that this process not only contributes to the quality and accuracy of the final papers, but also provides a mechanism for stimulating interest in the research outside of the academic community.
First Year Of Impact 2014
Sector Aerospace, Defence and Marine
Impact Types Policy & public services
 
Description Public Lecture, Edinburgh 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Undergraduate students
Results and Impact Around forty students, members of public, and others attended 'Winging it' event organised by University of Edinburgh student group Transition Edinburgh University. Talk on Aviation, Environmental Impacts, and Technological Solutions resulted in questions and discussion.

The main impact was to provide information to a politically engaged audience of young people.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2010