Imagined Futures of Consumption

'Imagined futures' of consumption have played a critical role in economic and political life since the end of the Second World War in the form of the promise of 'prosperity for all', realised through mass consumption in the consumer society. In the wake of the global financial crisis, however, expectations of continuously rising levels of consumption have been substantially undermined in the USA and Western Europe (Ipsos Mori 2017; Pew 2013). The research will address this important but understudied social context. The project will analyse how the future of the consumption of goods and services is imagined by both professional practitioners engaged with 'futures' and the general public, and how such imagined futures shape, and are shaped by, social processes.

Specialist futures consultancies, think tanks, corporations, and civil society organisations (CSOs) produce visions and models of the future of consumption. Such imagined futures may be grand visions of future consumer society, or more mundane scenarios for specific economic sectors (e.g. the future of retail). There is very limited scholarly work on this professional area, despite much market research with similar interests. However, representations and expectations of the future play a critical role in the present. Imagined futures, whether political utopias, models in public policy, or expectations in business planning, pave the roads toward the actual future. Visions of collective futures embody beliefs about the way the world works and about the nature of 'the common good', may inform everyday expectations, and may play critical social and political roles. The project will explore how these imagined futures of consumption are produced and circulated in society, through multiple research methods.

Two case studies of organisations in this professional field will be conducted using participant observation: Forum for the Future, a CSO that works on sustainability and futures has already committed to host one study. A second will be sought with a futures consultancy. Around 30 interviews will be conducted with key informants in the futures field, including a research trip to interview members of think tank the Tellus Institute in Boston, USA, that have engaged with important scenarios and 'visioning' projects in this area. Examples of imagined futures of consumption will be systematically collated and analysed, as well as their coverage in news media tracked, to inform understanding of how such imagined futures circulate. A Stakeholder Advisory Group of senior figures is already committed to the project. The Group will identify research opportunities and collaborate in designing workshops through which futures practitioners will exchange knowledge with social scientists engaged with studying consumption and social change.

The second strand of empirical research will explore individuals' imagined futures of consumption, through a commissioned Mass Observation Archive (MOA) Directive. MOA Directives elicit written responses from its 450 volunteers (average 40% response rate) and have become an important resource for sociological research. They are ideally suited to elicit rich and detailed responses about expectations of everyday life and how people imagine themselves within history (Kramer 2013). The Directive will explore loss of faith in continuously rising living standards and how people imagine consumption may change for themselves and for future generations. The MOA data will be analysed and compared to the professional 'imagined futures' to explore resonances and differences. In collaboration with 'innovation lab' FutureEverything an artist/designer will be commissioned to develop visualisations of the MOA data - this will be used as the centre piece for a public exhibition, as well as in other public activities such as discussion panels held at Manchester Museum, that will explore and debate issues raised by the project.

The project's core impact agenda is to co-produce novel knowledge exchange between the professional futures and foresight field and the sociology of consumption. The project does not rigidly demarcate its academic research from knowledge exchange activities; rather knowledge exchange will inform the academic research, which in turn will open opportunities for knowledge exchange. Imagined futures of consumption are important sites of social and political contestation-whether the post-war vision of 'prosperity for all' or contemporary visions of sustainable consumption. Understanding how such visions shape, and are shaped by, social processes (Mische 2009) is an impactful sociological task. However, the professional field of futures and foresight has been dominated by technology-driven understandings of societal change and, more recently, innovation studies and socio-technical approaches, but has not been informed by the state of the art in the sociology of consumption. Furthermore, the futures field has the potential to amplify impact through its influence on corporations and civil society organisations. For example, key project stakeholder Forum for the Future (FftF) regularly develops strategy for multinational corporations and the project has established links to Unilever through the Stakeholder Group and the SCI-Unilever Strategic Partnership. Significant budget (12%) has been allocated to impact-related activities.

The Stakeholder Advisory Group consisting of senior figures in the futures field (see letters of support) such as James Goodman (Director of Futures, FftT) and Sarah MacDonald (Director, Sustainable Living Plan, Unilever) is central to the project's impact agenda. The Group will be consulted on practitioners' research needs from the start of the project, and will co-develop the stakeholder workshop programme to maximise utility for practitioners. Critically, the Group will amplify the impact of project knowledge exchange through their own professional practice with corporations and NGOs. For example, Goodman has suggested co-development of new practice in FftF's futures work drawing on the PI and RA's social scientific expertise. Knowledge Exchange Workshops will bring together futures practitioners with leading sociologists of sustainable consumption with the goal of developing new practice around consumption futures (Year 2 Q2). Concrete outputs will be a Consumption Futures Toolkit for professional practice and a Stakeholder Report. The PI has extensive knowledge exchange experience (KE), including workshops (awarded in 2016 Exceptional Performance Award by University of Manchester for KE "leadership and delivery").

The PI will collaborate with FutureEverything to commission an artist/designer to co-develop visualisations of project Mass Observation Archive Directive data, which will form the centre piece of public engagement, including, as minimum, a two day public exhibition, as well as being used in KE. In addition, two panel discussion events (Year 2 Q2) will be held at Manchester Museum, as well as public lectures at, e.g., FutureEverything Festival 2019.The skill development programme will include public engagement and curatorial training for the PI. The PI will be mentored on impact by the Director of FutureEverything. The PI has extensive professional experience in communications, as a copywriter, journalist, and magazine editor, has worked as Communications Officer for a large-scale academic project, and will use these skills to promote the project and disseminate findings through media articles, the project website and the Everyday Futures Network. The project will be flexible in exploiting impact opportunities as these arise in the course of research and will establish longer-term collaborative links with futures practitioners to extend the reach of the project to corporations, influential business groups and civil society (e.g. Royal Society of Arts-PI is a RSA Fellow).