Sustainability, inclusiveness and governance of mini-grids in Africa (SIGMA)

With approximately one billion people lacking access to electricity in the world, nothing short of a socio-technical transformation is required to reach the objectives of universal electrification by 2030. Sub-Saharan Africa, with more than 600 million lacking access to electricity, requires a special attention. Although off-grid and decentralised solutions are expected to play a significant role and mini-grids are assumed to be a game changer for a rapid, cost-effective, pro-poor, universal electrification globally, the green mini-grid sector has not grown rapidly. Progress has been patchy between and within countries, across rural areas and informal urban settlements and between high and low-income communities. Among the barriers to scaling up mini-grids in Africa are lack of mini-grid specific regulatory framework, unproven business models, demand uncertainty, limited access to finance and lack of capacity.

The main aim of this proposal is to improve our understanding of sustainability, inclusiveness and governance of mini-grids in general and those in sub-Saharan Africa in particular, by developing an improved evidence base and a multi-dimensional appreciation of issues and challenges that can support better decision-making for universal electrification globally. The project has been conceptualised through a collaborative process involving a team of UK-based researchers and research teams from four sub-Saharan Africa countries (namely Nigeria, Senegal, Kenya and Tanzania).

We have identified four main research questions. 1) Which business models have succeeded to deliver financially and technically viable mini-grids in SSA? 2) Who and what have been the key beneficiaries of mini-grids in the case study countries and in what way? 3) Who drives or hinders the proliferation and the speed of adoption of mini-grids in East and West Africa? 4) What governance, regulatory and policy frameworks for decentralised systems of electricity provision exist in each case study country, how successful have they been and how do they differ?

Our analytical approach sits at the intersection of human geography, development studies, engineering and sustainability transitions. The research is necessarily inter-disciplinary in order to understand complex interactions between financial, technological, political, socio-economic and cultural factors. We plan to develop a political economy framework and a sustainability framework to analyse electricity access in developing countries, with a particular focus on mini-grids. Our case studies (two from West Africa, Nigeria and Senegal and two from East Africa, Kenya and Tanzania) present fascinating grounds for comparison and have been selected on the basis of their diversity of governance models and differing levels of decentralised electricity provisions within their specific national and sub-national contexts.

The work is organised in seven work packages and will be delivered over a period of 36 months. We would undertake an extensive review of literature on mini-grids, sustainability, governance, political economy and inclusiveness covering (WP1). We plan to develop our analytical frameworks at the end of this task. In WP2, we would focus on building the evidence base by collecting relevant information on mini-grids and developing a mini-grids database for four countries of our study. The database will then be used to analyse the status of mini-grids in each case study country. WP 3, 4 and 5 are devoted to analysis of sustainability, inclusiveness and governance of mini-grids. This will be done at the level of each country and also at cross-country comparative level. WP6 is devoted to communication, dissemination and impact generation activities while WP7 is devoted to project management.

The novelty of the proposal lies in its evidence-based approach to uncover challenges of mini-grids and to develop strategies for successful businesses that are sustainable and inclusive.

The beneficiaries of the proposed research would include the following:

a) mini-grid operators and investors who are looking for information on mini-grids - our database and country case studies will be available via open access and will allow developers, financing companies and businesses to use them to better understand the market and the performance of mini-grids in Africa.

b) national and provincial policymakers, regulators and rural electrification agencies of the case study countries who will directly benefit from the country-level studies and the related evidence base. The study will indirectly benefit the counterparts in other countries in the region and the continent through our dissemination activities such as communication via website, annual events and activities, participation in conferences, direct communication via targeted emails and our publications (policy briefs, academic papers, reports, etc.).

c) local mini-grid operators and users at the local level where the case studies are undertaken. We anticipate that the local stakeholders in those rural communities would benefit directly from the research as we share the results from our sustainability, inclusivity and governance related analysis. Our interaction with them at different stages of the project will make them more aware of the vulnerabilities and sustainability challenges facing their mini-grids and our recommendations for changes in the practices, behaviour, policies and governance could directly affect the activities and lives of the local people. Our project team has excellent contacts and relations at the local level, which we believe will help us translate our research outcomes into local impacts. The improvements in the living condition will particularly benefit women and children through improvements in health, reduction in drudgery and opportunities for improving the human capital.

d) International agencies such as DFID, GIZ, World Bank, African Development Bank, and Sustainable Energy for All would also benefit from our research outcomes as the findings will offer evidence for developing better strategies for mini-grid deployment at the national and regional levels through their support. We plan to open specific communication channels with these organisations through our communication strategy. Through our contacts and our interactions with them through targeted engagements, we aim to influence the decision-making processes.

e) Mini-grid businesses globally will find our research findings useful and they can apply them in other countries and contexts internationally.

d) Local utilities, NGOs, private sector entities engaged in providing services to rural communities would benefit from the research outcomes, as it would offer new business opportunities to serve the communities more effectively. Through interactions with them at the local/ national level, we aim to enlist their support at an early stage of the project and engage with them to translate our research outcomes into practical solutions. Income generation opportunities, technology diffusion options and changes in practices and behaviour could bring lasting changes to their business activities and to the host communities.