UNDPOLAR: Threat, identity, and dissent: Understanding and addressing political polarization in European democracies

In many European countries public opinion is polarized on issues such as immigration, inequality,
populism, and trust in institutions. Although for each issue there is an extended literature, there is
a pressing need for integration. Are opinions on these issues related and, if so, what is the glue
that binds them? Do different groups of people polarize on different issues and/or for different
reasons?
Our first objective is to determine how identities and threat combine to generate multiple
polarized attitudes. First, we use the novel technique of correlational class analysis to identify
subpopulations with unique belief systems, consisting of threats, identities, and polarized
attitudes. These analyses are followed by experiments that test causal effects of identities and
threats, and how these may differ between subpopulations with different belief systems.
Our second objective is to compare subpopulations of belief systems across countries and over
time. Therefore, cross-country differences in belief systems will be related to variation in the
political landscape (e.g., political polarisation), and differences in social structural country
characteristics (e.g., inequality and meritocratic beliefs). Longitudinally we will examine the
impact of the financial crisis on belief systems.
Crucially, identifying subpopulations with different belief systems will help not only in
understanding polarisation, but also in identifying solutions, which are expected to differ
depending on the belief system. Democratic innovations such as citizen fora have been developed
to overcome polarisation. We will test whether using our insights on threats and identity can make
such fora more effective.