Prevention IMPACT: developing and evaluating economic models for planning optimal cardiovascular prevention strategies

Preventing future heart disease and stroke is difficult. Challenges include: complex causes, diverse diseases, climbing costs and conflicting risk factor trends (less smoking, more obesity, more diabetes, and persistent poverty).

We will therefore:
# identify different ways to reduce risk factors in high-risk individuals and in whole populations (by searching the evidence literature and consulting NHS decision-makers);
# extend a widely used computer prediction model for heart disease to include stroke and peripheral artery disease;
# develop Web-based forms of the model for NHS users;
# compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different prevention plans;
# discuss our results with planners, policy makers, professionals and patient groups.

The prevention of future cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains problematic. Planning and prediction challenges include: complex causes, diverse manifestations, increasing costs, population ageing and conflicting trends in obesity, diet, smoking and inequalities.

Our multi-disciplinary group will therefore:
# systematically review the scientific evidence;
# elicit the views of NHS decision-makers;
# identify a range of policy options;
# further develop a validated coronary policy model to include stroke and other CVD;
# compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different risk factor reduction strategies in high risk individuals and in entire populations;
# share results with planners, policy-makers, professionals and patient groups.