Alcohol policy modelling and evaluation
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Sheffield
Department Name: Health and Related Research
Abstract
Alcohol policies are government interventions that aim to minimise the health and social harm arising from the use of alcohol, which in England alone costs between #17.7bn and #25.1bn every year. Controlling alcoholic affordability and availability are amongst the most effective policy options available to governments. These policies can be unpopular with consumers and industry, so it is important that decisions are based on sound evidence about the expected costs and benefits. If policies come into force, it is important that we test if expected effects really occur. Our aim is to lead a step-change in capability to predicting and testing the effects of policies. With policy stakeholders and international advisors, we identified priority work areas where work is most urgently needed and bring together alcohol policy researchers, and experts in combining evidence, policy appraisal, industrial economics, health economics and public health information to undertake the research. We plan to
1. Collect and analyse data and perform evidence reviews in areas where new evidence is critical to inform policy effectiveness research: (a) how the alcohol market responds to policies; (b) how changes in binge drinking relate to changes in illness and crime; (c) how people?s drinking varies over time; (d) how long it takes for policy changes to have an effect on drinking and harm; and (e) what role the socio-political situation (eg. current recession) plays in influencing whether a policy works.
2. Building a computer-based tool that can predict the likely effects of current and possible future options for alcohol taxation and retail licensing (key policy areas discussed in the UK) ? e.g. the health and social impact of higher taxes for extra strength alcohol or returning closing time to 11pm.
3. Methodological work so that this tool can place the policy in the real-world context of recent and long-term changes to alcohol prices, income, drinking and harm.
4. Using the evolving tool to analyse real policy options as the work develops: many methodological advances in recent alcohol policy appraisal have come about because ?an answer was needed now?. We will write annual reports and will work closely with policy makers and, where appropriate, the media, to ensure that our research is able to inform policy debates.
1. Collect and analyse data and perform evidence reviews in areas where new evidence is critical to inform policy effectiveness research: (a) how the alcohol market responds to policies; (b) how changes in binge drinking relate to changes in illness and crime; (c) how people?s drinking varies over time; (d) how long it takes for policy changes to have an effect on drinking and harm; and (e) what role the socio-political situation (eg. current recession) plays in influencing whether a policy works.
2. Building a computer-based tool that can predict the likely effects of current and possible future options for alcohol taxation and retail licensing (key policy areas discussed in the UK) ? e.g. the health and social impact of higher taxes for extra strength alcohol or returning closing time to 11pm.
3. Methodological work so that this tool can place the policy in the real-world context of recent and long-term changes to alcohol prices, income, drinking and harm.
4. Using the evolving tool to analyse real policy options as the work develops: many methodological advances in recent alcohol policy appraisal have come about because ?an answer was needed now?. We will write annual reports and will work closely with policy makers and, where appropriate, the media, to ensure that our research is able to inform policy debates.
Technical Summary
The aim for this research programme is to lead a step-change in capabilities for robust scientific appraisal of new and existing alcohol policy interventions. Controlling alcoholic affordability and availability are amongst the most effective policy options available to governments. These policies can be unpopular with consumers and industry, so it is imperative that decisions are based on sound evidence. However, important knowledge gaps remain and with policy stakeholders and international advisors, we identified priority areas for scientific advance.
1. New evidence to inform policy appraisal: We propose data acquisition, data analysis and evidence synthesis in areas where new evidence is critical: (a) Market response to pricing policy; (b) Relationship between heavy episodic drinking and harms in different settings; (c) Variability in individuals? consumption patterns over time; (d) Time lag between policy, consumption and harm changes; and (e) Socio-political context effects that may moderate policy effectiveness.
2. Building of a model that considers taxation and availability policy options: Taxes are the only price-based interventions currently operating in most Western economies. The health and social impact of a range of taxation options (eg. the current ?duty escalator?; differential taxation by alcoholic strength) will be appraised. Similarly, we will appraise availability policies, which remain almost unexamined due to lack of integrated data on outlet opening hours and density.
3. Building a dynamic model: Current models are static, assuming a ?stay steady? baseline level of consumption and harms, rather than dynamic i.e. accounting for trends over time. We propose a major model revision to account for recent and long-term underlying trends in alcohol prices, income, consumption and harm.
4. Policy evaluation/model validation: Many methodological advances in our recent modelling have come about because ?an answer was needed? to real policy options. We propose to incorporate a 3 year programme of policy appraisal that is responsive to emerging stakeholder needs. We will produce annual reports on evidence synthesis, model developments, validations and policy appraisals, to enable researchers and UK and international policy stakeholders to view and use developing work.
A systematic comparison of model predictions with real changes in consumption/harm will also be undertaken. We bring together UK and international alcohol policy researchers, and experts in evidence synthesis, policy modelling, industrial economics, health economics and public health information and expect that our work programme will lead to major advances in evidence-based alcohol policy decision making. Strong links with stakeholders have been established to facilitate exploitation.
1. New evidence to inform policy appraisal: We propose data acquisition, data analysis and evidence synthesis in areas where new evidence is critical: (a) Market response to pricing policy; (b) Relationship between heavy episodic drinking and harms in different settings; (c) Variability in individuals? consumption patterns over time; (d) Time lag between policy, consumption and harm changes; and (e) Socio-political context effects that may moderate policy effectiveness.
2. Building of a model that considers taxation and availability policy options: Taxes are the only price-based interventions currently operating in most Western economies. The health and social impact of a range of taxation options (eg. the current ?duty escalator?; differential taxation by alcoholic strength) will be appraised. Similarly, we will appraise availability policies, which remain almost unexamined due to lack of integrated data on outlet opening hours and density.
3. Building a dynamic model: Current models are static, assuming a ?stay steady? baseline level of consumption and harms, rather than dynamic i.e. accounting for trends over time. We propose a major model revision to account for recent and long-term underlying trends in alcohol prices, income, consumption and harm.
4. Policy evaluation/model validation: Many methodological advances in our recent modelling have come about because ?an answer was needed? to real policy options. We propose to incorporate a 3 year programme of policy appraisal that is responsive to emerging stakeholder needs. We will produce annual reports on evidence synthesis, model developments, validations and policy appraisals, to enable researchers and UK and international policy stakeholders to view and use developing work.
A systematic comparison of model predictions with real changes in consumption/harm will also be undertaken. We bring together UK and international alcohol policy researchers, and experts in evidence synthesis, policy modelling, industrial economics, health economics and public health information and expect that our work programme will lead to major advances in evidence-based alcohol policy decision making. Strong links with stakeholders have been established to facilitate exploitation.
