Stochastic dynamics, inflationary effects & predator-prey metapopulations
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Oxford
Department Name: Zoology
Abstract
Appreciating how the numbers and distribution of a species change is of fundamental importance to our understanding of the biosphere. These changes in populations can occur at a local, very small scale or at larger scales such as regions. It remains unclear how the ecological factors (e.g. predation) alter as this spatial scale changes. One approach in answering this question is to use experimental microcosms: small groups of species that interact in controlled environments to test and explore ideas, and make predictions in community ecology. Combining our microcosm experiments with mathematical modelling allows a broader perspective to be used in tackling these sorts of research questions. The primary aim of this research work is to understanding how predator and prey numbers change as we consider more about the habitat (space) in which they occupy. Using insects and their predators (parasitic wasps), we will make landscapes in which predators and prey are allowed to move and interact. We will monitor the consequences of these interactions in terms of changes in numbers of each species. It is equally important to know what the consequences of different environments or changes in the environment are for ecological interactions. For example, how are predator-prey interactions affected by different environments? What happens to the distribution and numbers of a species if these environments change and are unpredictable? Exploring how these external, environmental processes couple with spatial scale affect species interactions is the second aim of our work. Conducting a study on different species interactions at different scales in unpredictable environmental regimes will provide us with information about how populations response to space and unpredictability. By coupling this work with mathematical modelling, we will gain important insights into a broad class of processes that affect the persistence and abundance of biodiversity. Our curiosity-driven project will provide a proof of concept of a number of testable aims and objectives. This study relates to a number of areas supported by the NERC, particularly those associated with understanding fundamental processes in ecosystems that affect the preservation of biodiversity
Publications
Bull JC
(2008)
Overcompensatory population dynamic responses to environmental stochasticity.
in The Journal of animal ecology
Bull JC
(2010)
Predators reduce extinction risk in noisy metapopulations.
in PloS one
Hunt JJ
(2009)
The effects of colonization, extinction and competition on co-existence in metacommunities.
in The Journal of animal ecology
Strevens C
(2010)
The impact of alternative harvesting strategies in a resource-consumer metapopulation
in Journal of Applied Ecology
Strevens CM
(2011)
Density-dependent population dynamics and dispersal in heterogeneous metapopulations.
in The Journal of animal ecology
Description | In this project we were able to understand how variation in resources affected predator-prey interactions in a set of long-term experiments. This work has led us to a greater understanding of source-sink dynamics and various developments in the population dynamics of insects. |
Exploitation Route | We aim to develop and these ideas forward in future publications and funding applications |
Sectors | Environment |
Description | We have used these findings to develop new studies on stochastic predator - prey interactions - this is opening up new ideas for testing source - sink mechanisms in spatial (insect) populations. Using findings from this research we have also developed new ideas for testing the role of demographic variation on the dynamics of spatial (insect) populations. |
Sector | Environment |
Description | Stochastic dynamics, inflationary effects and metapopulation dynamics |
Organisation | Russian Academy of Sciences |
Country | Russian Federation |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Over the last two years, we have established a new collaboration with colleagues at the Russian Academy of Sciences to extend the ideas originally undertaken in this short (small project) NERC grant. We have submitted one paper based on this work which is currently under review |
Start Year | 2011 |
Description | European Food Safety Authority |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | Yes |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | The working groups are (i) investigating the role of different technologies (GM, invasive pests, pesticides) on biodiversity (and species recovery) and ii) the use of insects as a source of feed and food. These are on-going working groups |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2012,2013,2014 |
URL | http://efsa.europa.eu |