Integrating Macroecology and Modelling to Elucidate Regulation of Services from Ecosystems

Coastal and shelf marine ecosystems are highly productive, bringing great benefits to humans. These benefits, called "ecosystem services" include food supply, recycling and recreation. Coastal and shelf seas are rich, productive and close to large human populations, so they are under great pressure from factors such as fishing and climate change.

Despite years of intensive study, our knowledge of how shelf ecosystems work is still patchy. Therefore we cannot yet predict how they will respond to changes. IMMERSE combines researchers with complementary track records from across 11 UK institutes. We will develop an integrated, whole-ecosystem approach to understand how changes occur in marine ecosystems and how these affect the services they provide. We will a) synthesise and analyse the vast array of existing, but scattered, data, b) target key data gaps and choke-points in our understanding with focussed fieldwork and experimentation and c) combine these into a suite of computer models that explore future consequences of changes and perturbations for ecosystem services. Our geographical focus will be the western seas, from the western English Channel, through the Celtic and Irish Seas, to western Scotland, although relevant data will be included from a wider area.

The novelty of this project is fourfold:

First, we will use novel web-based approaches to combine existing datasets and rate process measurements, from microbes to whales, and at whole shelf scales. By combining these datasets and published data, we can deduce the underlying "ecological rules" that operate at the level of the individual but lead to patterns at the ecosystem scale - for example how an organism's mortality or feeding rate depends on its body size and the ambient temperature.

Second we will target key knowledge gaps by applying the latest method developments in understanding food webs. We will use isotopic methods to trace the relative input of seaweed and planktonic algae into the base of the food web; we will follow these isotopic tracers in the lab and in the wild to understand exactly how these plants are incorporated into the rest of food web; we will use new image analysis technology to quantify the full size range of organisms in the sea; and we will use the latest molecular techniques to trace who eats whom.

The third novelty is that we will use not just one model to understand these ecosystem linkages but six models, all based on different assumptions. This "ensemble" approach is similar to climate forecasting, but is in its infancy in the sea. We will inform these models with the data synthesised and collected above, and then compare the output across the whole ensemble. This approach limits the shortcomings of any single model for a more robust picture of how the ecosystem works. These models will then be challenged with different scenarios of change, for example changing fishing effort or establishing conservation zones, with and without warming.

The fourth novelty of our approach is that we include a small but important socioeconomic part to our proposal. This will enable policy makers to convert the output from models into economic valuations and indicators, so that judgements can be made on management decisions for a suite of marine ecosystem services.

IMMERSE is part of a larger NERC funding scheme, and its outputs spanning the whole of the food web will be tailored to support the next two rounds of funding: first in developing NERC's model of the lower reaches of the food web, and second in testing efficiency of potential management interventions. The legacies of this project will include tools and combined datasets that will place the UK in a leading position to understand whole ecosystems and the consequences of change in terms of ecosystem services.

The IMMERSE programme has been developed as a fully integrated, interdisciplinary research effort that will provide high value knowledge, outputs and impact to the wider academic community, including other research programmes and collaborations. By conducting research across a range of disciplines, IMMERSE will consolidate a plethora of existing data and knowledge and combine with new experiments and fieldwork for a genuine whole marine ecosystem analysis. The tools and integrated datasets represent a new paradigm in macroecology, and will be available to the ecological research community as a legacy of the project.

Based on the latest ecological theories, this integrated data will be used to refine a range of ecosystem models, including a suite of five existing ecosystem models linked to or driven by outputs from ERSEM, aiming to quantify the uncertainty in future marine ecosystem states under scenarios of climate and human activity. These developments represent a step-change in modelling of higher trophic levels, and whole marine ecosystems. Models, and the ensemble, will be of benefit to the marine science community

Improved understanding of how the regulation of key ecosystem services are affected by 'top down' and 'bottom up' driven cascades, scale-dependence in the underlying processes, functional diversity at different trophic levels, and refining existing ecosystem models to explore the impact of environmental change on the structure, function and services associated with marine food webs across scales, represent a completely new way of assessing and considering ecosystem services and their links to biodiversity. This work will benefit those researching at the interface between ecological, environmental and social sciences. The framework delivered by IMMERSE will be available for further research in this area.

There are already strong links with many large national and international research programmes involved with refining Good Environmental Status indicators, identifying Marine Protected Areas, increasing knowledge of ecosystem function and developing tools for an ecosystem approach to marine management. The existing collaborations will facilitate the exchange of knowledge and resources across related programmes, including: Development of innovative tools for understanding marine biodiversity and assessing good environmental status (DEVOTES), VECTORS of change in oceans and seas marine life, impact on economic sectors (VECTORS), Biodiversity & Ecosystem Service Sustainability (BESS), Coastal Biodiversity & Ecosystem Service Sustainability (CBESS), Carbon / nutrient dynamics and fluxes over shelf systems (CANDYFLOSS), Biogeochemistry, macronutrient and carbon cycling in the benthic layer (BMCC), Ecosystem Services for poverty alleviation (ESPA), IndiSeas, LO-RISE, Johann Friedrich Blumenbach Institute of Zoology and Anthropology Systemic Conservation Biology, Operational Ecology (OPEC) and GreenSeas.

A data legacy will be supported by the British Oceanographic Data Centre, providing open access, rationalised data to scientists from a range of disciplines, including ecology, ecosystem modelling and socio-economics. Open annual science meeting and programme seminars / workshops will be used for knowledge exchange amongst the community and activities will be incorporated, such as themed break-out groups, to encourage a cross-fertilization of ideas. Tools and materials will be available from the project website, which will be maintained for reference post-programme, and crossed-linked to other relevant websites. There will also be regular communication from the programme management team, such as a bi-annual newsletter and latest news on the website, with programme researchers and the wider scientific community.