Multi-scale adaptations to climate change and social-ecological sustainability in coastal areas (MAGIC)

Adaptation plans have become increasingly popular across the globe. While some adaptations have beneficial outcomes, many adaptations have unintended consequences for vulnerability, either for the decision makers themselves or for other stakeholders. This is particularly relevant in coastal zones where both marine and land-based adaptations have an impact and where human pressures are greatest.

We believe a better understanding of the underlying social-ecological processes driving adaptation in coastal areas, and particularly the feedbacks between risk from biophysical change, cognitive processes, and adaptation, will reduce the incidence of maladaptations while increasing the frequency of win-win adaptations.

We use a model of "private proactive adaptation to climate change" (Grothmann & Patt 2005) to assess the interactions between: a) the actual risk posed by climate change; b) cognitive factors such as perceived risk and perceived adaptive capacity; c) adaptations; and d) situated learning when decisions makers participate in modeling processes. We assess the relationship between these drivers and adaptation plans in coastal areas at three scales: individual decision makers; local communities of practice; and regional planning authorities. Participatory modelling with decision makers could result in lasting impacts for enhanced coastal resilience.

In each of three coastal regions: the Languedoc-Rousillon in France; Cornwall in the UK; and the Garden Route coast in South Africa, we will identify four examples where users, communities of practice, and regional authorities have developed adaptation plans and strategies resulting in the unintended transfer of vulnerability from one sector, scale or place to another. We will use available empirical data and models, participatory agent-based modeling, interpretative methods; and reflexive learning during the modeling process to catalyze and assess changes in the cognitive perceptions of decision makers who design adaptation plans.

Who might benefit from this research?
MAGIC aims to have immediate and long-lasting impacts for academic, public sector (national regional and local government), third sector (voluntary organisations, charities and NGOs) and community actors. Through our partners (see Pathways to Impact and CfS) and wider collaborators we insure that our collaborative approach to co-design and co-production will maximize impact. Whilst much of our research is place-based- the impacts will be distributed beyond these localities.
Academic beneficiaries are identified in the academic beneficiaries section. Public sector beneficiaries include local governments, such as Cornwall Council, local voluntary organisations, such as conservation groups, and local communities who are resident at sites.

How might they benefit from this research?
These beneficiaries will be impacted in a number of different ways and we use multiple, diverse means of engagement, communication and dissemination to bring about impact, as detailed in Pathways to Impact. The types of academic impacts expected included new transdisciplinary understandings of how coastal adaptation measures might undermine adaptive capacity and longer term resilience, and how the framing and mental models of decision-makers bias certain types of strategies and decisions. MAGIC research findings will add to body of knowledge around resilience and adaptive capacity, especially informing debates about the dynamic cross scale relationships and trade-offs implicit in different decisions, policies and institutions. In turn this informs broader national and international policies and processes, such as the evolving 'Future Earth' agenda.

We expect a number of different social and economic impacts, most notably:

Environment, energy and sustainability impacts: our research will have lasting impacts in the locations through shared learning, questioning and sensitizing to long term sustainability issues particularly but not exclusively around coastal zone management, adaptation planning, rural development, conservation planning. These interventions are further expected to have beneficial impacts on wellbeing of individuals and communities who live by the coast and whose livelihoods are dependent on coastal resources.

Social welfare and social service provision: our research findings will help to target investments in climate change adaptation, and also provide important justification and evidence to support funding these areas, and important tools and frameworks to support decision-making and long term planning incorporating new models and approaches to understanding risk and vulnerability, ultimately building adaptive capacity and enhancing multi-scalar resilience and sustainability.