Developing a drought narrative resource in a multi-stakeholder decision-making tool for drought risk management
Lead Research Organisation:
Harper Adams University
Department Name: Agriculture and Environment
Abstract
1. To develop a robust innovative interdisciplinary methodology for integrating drought science and scenario-modelling with stakeholder engagement/narrative research. Through a systems-based approach, this method will lead to the production of an online resource of multi-stakeholder drought science-narrative data to input into decision-making in drought risk management.
2. To develop hydrological modelling of drought impacts at nested spatial scales (mesocosms, catchments) so evaluate present/future water resource availability, focussing on past, present and future drought periods across N-S and W-E climatic gradients. This will provide gap quantification between present/future water supply/demand for 7 case study catchments.
3. To develop several new mesocosm experiments in urban and rural environments, interwoven creatively in their delivery to progress expert drought science, and promote citizen science/multi-stakeholder awareness of drought impacts.
4. To develop a sequential participatory methodology that interweaves expert drought science with lay knowledge as a means of responding to gap quantification between present/future water supply/demand for case study catchments. This involves developing multi-stakeholder 'science-engaged' narrative enquiry so that it provides feedback on impact thresholds and adaptation/mitigation options in varied domains that can be input as parameters to 'expert' hydrological modelling.
5. To provide a critical interdisciplinary analysis of multi-stakeholder drought narratives explored within a robust systems framework. This will involve using systems thinking in analysing relationships between different stakeholder perceptions of trigger thresholds/tipping points for drought awareness/action, and physical thresholds for water/temperature stress.
6. To provide a detailed critique of potential synergies between story/telling/narrative enquiry and science communication in promoting the exchange of expert/lay science about drought risk and mitigation, and to capitalise on these insights in the development of the project's interdisciplinary methodology and science communication protocols. An 'open science' protocol will be designed to maximise stakeholder engagement/ capacity building through and beyond the research project's lifespan.
7. To develop an accessible engaging web-based utility for bringing narrative data into drought risk decision making. This will include developing a cutting-edge social media web-platform to share project resources/ensure longer-term sustainability of the narrative resource.
8. To provide an evaluation of water-use conflicts, synergies and trade-offs, drawing on historic drought experiences and integrating both expert/lay knowledge to develop drought indices for use in water resource planning. The project resources will be mined to construct a database of species responses/management options to mitigate drought/post-drought recovery at different scales; and to produce management guidelines/advice on coping with drought/water scarcity at different scales based on narratives from different stakeholder domains.
9. To undertake thorough project scoping for wider sharing: (A) structured international literature reviews on use of narrative in risk settings nationally/internationally; (B) scoping reports providing literature /secondary data on different UK drought risk settings from physical, historical, water-use by stakeholders, socio-economic and cultural character, and narrative perspectives, as a precursor to final selection of case-study catchments; (C) 7 catchment reports from literature review/ stakeholder engagement to determine the characteristics/functioning of each case-study catchment. These will draw together data on water use, water resources planning (demand, licensed abstractions, minimum flow data etc.) for observed and future conditions for each catchment.
2. To develop hydrological modelling of drought impacts at nested spatial scales (mesocosms, catchments) so evaluate present/future water resource availability, focussing on past, present and future drought periods across N-S and W-E climatic gradients. This will provide gap quantification between present/future water supply/demand for 7 case study catchments.
3. To develop several new mesocosm experiments in urban and rural environments, interwoven creatively in their delivery to progress expert drought science, and promote citizen science/multi-stakeholder awareness of drought impacts.
4. To develop a sequential participatory methodology that interweaves expert drought science with lay knowledge as a means of responding to gap quantification between present/future water supply/demand for case study catchments. This involves developing multi-stakeholder 'science-engaged' narrative enquiry so that it provides feedback on impact thresholds and adaptation/mitigation options in varied domains that can be input as parameters to 'expert' hydrological modelling.
5. To provide a critical interdisciplinary analysis of multi-stakeholder drought narratives explored within a robust systems framework. This will involve using systems thinking in analysing relationships between different stakeholder perceptions of trigger thresholds/tipping points for drought awareness/action, and physical thresholds for water/temperature stress.
6. To provide a detailed critique of potential synergies between story/telling/narrative enquiry and science communication in promoting the exchange of expert/lay science about drought risk and mitigation, and to capitalise on these insights in the development of the project's interdisciplinary methodology and science communication protocols. An 'open science' protocol will be designed to maximise stakeholder engagement/ capacity building through and beyond the research project's lifespan.
7. To develop an accessible engaging web-based utility for bringing narrative data into drought risk decision making. This will include developing a cutting-edge social media web-platform to share project resources/ensure longer-term sustainability of the narrative resource.
8. To provide an evaluation of water-use conflicts, synergies and trade-offs, drawing on historic drought experiences and integrating both expert/lay knowledge to develop drought indices for use in water resource planning. The project resources will be mined to construct a database of species responses/management options to mitigate drought/post-drought recovery at different scales; and to produce management guidelines/advice on coping with drought/water scarcity at different scales based on narratives from different stakeholder domains.
9. To undertake thorough project scoping for wider sharing: (A) structured international literature reviews on use of narrative in risk settings nationally/internationally; (B) scoping reports providing literature /secondary data on different UK drought risk settings from physical, historical, water-use by stakeholders, socio-economic and cultural character, and narrative perspectives, as a precursor to final selection of case-study catchments; (C) 7 catchment reports from literature review/ stakeholder engagement to determine the characteristics/functioning of each case-study catchment. These will draw together data on water use, water resources planning (demand, licensed abstractions, minimum flow data etc.) for observed and future conditions for each catchment.
Planned Impact
This research will have high impact in theoretical, policy and practical terms in local/national/international contexts. In policy terms, drought is now one of the major risks facing the UK. The project aims to mitigate drought impacts, and through a new innovative multi-stakeholder decision-making utility, to make different stakeholders more resilient to drought risk and drought events.
The project's impact strategy is driven and strengthened by the engaged nature of the research process. Key target groups/beneficiaries within, and beyond, those immediately engaged within the project have been identified. These include: stakeholders working at local and regional levels in different domains (health and wellbeing, urban design/built environment, agriculture/horticulture, utilities, government, business, tourism and ecosystem services) to manage the impacts of drought and water scarcity in the 7 case-study catchments; educational organisations (formal/informal); wider inter-professional groups in the UK with interests/concerns in drought risk management/mitigation of impacts, including communities and the general public.
Developing organisational stakeholders and communities that are resilient to living with drought risk and water scarcity, and resilient to future drought is of the highest priority. A multi-stakeholder shared recognition of drought risk, and a developing attitude of coping/living with flood events, are vital components of drought risk planning/resilience. This research will make a significant contribution to drought policy discourses and practices in the way it brings different stakeholder drought narratives into thinking about and developing drought resilience.
The interdisciplinary and narrative based research methods are designed to enhance and dovetail with the impact strategy giving opportunities for new and innovative approaches to achieving impact. This integrates: how mesocosms and social media tools can engage new/different audiences, and how the inclusion of lay voices and narrative data might incentivise the policy process. Policy makers have to balance all these competing interests - so, rather than handing policymakers the science, the project supplies 'the whole data package'. For further detail on beneficiaries, benefits and methods, see the Pathways to impact document. These include:
- Project partners and stakeholders working at local and regional levels in different domains (water supply, health and wellbeing, urban design/built environment, agriculture/forestry, government, business, tourism and ecosystem services) and the policy/governance communities (Environment Agency, SEPA, National Resources Wales and local/regional/national levels)
- General public and communities (e.g. Local Resilience Forums with responsibilities for community lead adaptation planning)
- Scientists and artists working as part of different professional organisations (e.g. environmental regulators/wildlife conservation)
- Individuals and collectives of creative practitioners and cultural activists whose work focuses on related environmental and sustainability issues
- Educational organisations (schools, further/higher education but also less formal learning).
The case-study based research design will identify 7 catchments with a wide range of physical/socio-economic-cultural characteristics that will form a platform for wider stakeholder engagement across the UK. The project will have an integrated dissemination/impact strategy that targets different stakeholders for awareness, information and action for behaviour change. Impact will be delivered by on-going dialogue/exchange; a culture of co-production of knowledge, and working with key organisational gatekeepers/ communities in catchments and beyond. Impact strategies will include website/social media; open access research outputs for end users; participatory activities (seminars, workshops, conference) and a science-storytelling e-workbook for schools
The project's impact strategy is driven and strengthened by the engaged nature of the research process. Key target groups/beneficiaries within, and beyond, those immediately engaged within the project have been identified. These include: stakeholders working at local and regional levels in different domains (health and wellbeing, urban design/built environment, agriculture/horticulture, utilities, government, business, tourism and ecosystem services) to manage the impacts of drought and water scarcity in the 7 case-study catchments; educational organisations (formal/informal); wider inter-professional groups in the UK with interests/concerns in drought risk management/mitigation of impacts, including communities and the general public.
Developing organisational stakeholders and communities that are resilient to living with drought risk and water scarcity, and resilient to future drought is of the highest priority. A multi-stakeholder shared recognition of drought risk, and a developing attitude of coping/living with flood events, are vital components of drought risk planning/resilience. This research will make a significant contribution to drought policy discourses and practices in the way it brings different stakeholder drought narratives into thinking about and developing drought resilience.
The interdisciplinary and narrative based research methods are designed to enhance and dovetail with the impact strategy giving opportunities for new and innovative approaches to achieving impact. This integrates: how mesocosms and social media tools can engage new/different audiences, and how the inclusion of lay voices and narrative data might incentivise the policy process. Policy makers have to balance all these competing interests - so, rather than handing policymakers the science, the project supplies 'the whole data package'. For further detail on beneficiaries, benefits and methods, see the Pathways to impact document. These include:
- Project partners and stakeholders working at local and regional levels in different domains (water supply, health and wellbeing, urban design/built environment, agriculture/forestry, government, business, tourism and ecosystem services) and the policy/governance communities (Environment Agency, SEPA, National Resources Wales and local/regional/national levels)
- General public and communities (e.g. Local Resilience Forums with responsibilities for community lead adaptation planning)
- Scientists and artists working as part of different professional organisations (e.g. environmental regulators/wildlife conservation)
- Individuals and collectives of creative practitioners and cultural activists whose work focuses on related environmental and sustainability issues
- Educational organisations (schools, further/higher education but also less formal learning).
The case-study based research design will identify 7 catchments with a wide range of physical/socio-economic-cultural characteristics that will form a platform for wider stakeholder engagement across the UK. The project will have an integrated dissemination/impact strategy that targets different stakeholders for awareness, information and action for behaviour change. Impact will be delivered by on-going dialogue/exchange; a culture of co-production of knowledge, and working with key organisational gatekeepers/ communities in catchments and beyond. Impact strategies will include website/social media; open access research outputs for end users; participatory activities (seminars, workshops, conference) and a science-storytelling e-workbook for schools
Organisations
| Description | This section of the project investigated the response to a range of UK crops, wheat, barley, triticale, quinoa, durum wheat, perennial ryegrass and Lucerne to a severe 2050 climate change scenario whereby summer (April - September) rainfall was reduced by 34%, in comparison to the central England average rainfall. The crops were grown in mesocosms, large outdoor containers, which were protected from rainfall by polytunnels. The early part of the investigation used all spring planted crops whereas the second and third year planted crops were mainly winter planted except for Durum wheat and quinoa which are only spring planted, and perennial ryegrass and Lucerne which are perennial crops and were therefore planted at the start of the investigation. The most important findings were that the spring planted crops were more sensitive to the simulated rainfall reduction than the winter planted crops as winter planted crops were established during the wetter winter period and before the onset of the 'drought', reduced rainfall. The perennial ryegrass was also significantly less productive than the Lucerne especially in the drier scenario. The work also demonstrated how the winter rainfall was fundamental to combinable crop production in the UK to return the soil back to 'field capacity' which provided a buffer from which the plants could grow before the onset of the drier seasons. Although the work did not investigate the fresh-produce sector it is possible to extrapolate that the effect of the reduction of the summer rainfall would have significant negative effects on any crop that is planted from April onwards where irrigation would be imperative to maintain the yield and quality of the crop. Also included within the work was the use of anti-transpirants, special products which can reduce plant water use, to protect the crops during drought stress periods. This work supported previous reports that when used at times when the crop is not significantly stressed , e.g. when sufficient water is available, yield can be reduced and although they have potential they are best used during key growth stages when the crop is becoming stressed. |
| Exploitation Route | The finding will provide some valuable information for the mid-scale investigation response of mainstay arable and forage crops in the UK. The work also demonstrated how spring planted combinable crops are more sensitive to spring and summer droughts than winter planted crops and therefore crop choice may be of significant important in a drier cliomate scenario. The results for the effects of the longer term forage production should also be of significant value as it demonstrated that in the short term the use of the traditional cropping for forage may not be adequate and production may need to consider the deeper rooted and more productive Lucerne to maintain forage production on drier climates. This work should also identify how other investigations could adapt the methodology to investigate a further range of rainfall scenarios in a range of UK crops. In addition, it is always useful for researcher to have information of limitations to be aware of when using mid-scale long term mesocosm experiments. |
| Sectors | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Education,Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice |
| Description | Endows Showcase event (14th March 2018) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Study participants or study members |
| Results and Impact | This was the first ENDOWS showcase event where all of the outputs from the Water scarcity program was showcased to a wide audience with a range of interests. The media was reporting about presentations from key speakers. Members of the DRY project presented their findings, I Grove reported results from the agricultural mesocosms, and debate/discussions were held with the audience. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | http://aboutdrought.info/drought-and-water-scarcity-programme-showcase-event/ |
| Description | Local Advisory Group meeting held at Harper Adams University |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The DRY project (Drought Risk and You) is exploring how science and narrative can interact in drought-risk decision-making.. On the 24th May 2016, the DRY team has invited farmers and others with interests in drought impacts on crops (including the NFU and United Kingdom irrigation Association) to visit crop experiments being undertaken at Harper Adams University. During the day, we are keen that farmers have the opportunity to share their memories, experiences and knowledge about the impacts of drought and water scarcity on their farming so that their experiential knowledge can come into play with the evidence from the scientists. In scene setting, Dr Ragab Ragab (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford) will discuss our drought risk modelliing with its implications for agriculture. The farmers and the DRY team will then visit the crop experiments and discuss the wider impacts of drought and water scarcity on Wheat, Barley, Triticale, Durum Wheat, Quinoa, Perennial Rye Grass and Lucerne. Dr Ivan Grove (Harper Adams University) will share the results of his first year of mesocosm experiments, within controlled water regimes comparing including a 50% reduction in rainfall from the Central England 50 year average rainfall and rainfall based on the rainfall for the CO2 high emissions scenario for 2050. The experiments are planned to continue for three years - with crops being rotated as per field use the rainfall patterns continuing throughout that time. The crops will experience water deficit from year to year to mirror both winter/spring and summer/autumn predicted changes. This field visit will be followed by group discussion about the implications of this research for the UK agriculture sector, business and the public . Key questions include: Is agricultural drought risk management about changing the water regime of existing crops or changing to new crops or indeed both? The use of new crops not only has implications for UK agriculture but also involves changes in diet of the UK population. The event will be filmed by JackPerksPhotography and shared online as a prompt for further discussion after the visit. The DRY project is working with a range of stakeholders on the impacts of drought and water scarcity in seven case-study catchments - the Cornwall Fowey, Bristol Frome, Welsh Ebbw, Wiltshire Pang, Bevills Leam in the Fenlands, Sheffield Don and the Fife Eden. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
| URL | http://dryproject.co.uk/ |
| Description | Local Advisory Group meeting in the Bevills Leam catchment and visit to Pumping Station |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | A member of the project team recapped the activity done in the third and final year of crop mesocosm experiments at Harper Adams and participants actively participated to discussions asking more information and final results as soon as the experiments will be completed. Additional discussions where facilitated during a screening of digital stories produced in the area. The project team, in collaboration with national and local stakeholders, has completed a SWOT analysis of the online narrative resources listed below. This discussion will influence the way in which the decision-making utility tool will be designed/developed as one of the main outputs of the DRY Project: Resources produced by USGS Californian drought visualised with open data http://cida.usgs.gov/ca_drought; Biology of Story: http://biologyofstory.com/#/; Storymaps: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/en/gallery/#s=0; Historypin: http://www/historypin/org/en/; After the storm: http://www.pbs.org/independentlens/interactive/after-the-storm/#/dear-future-disaster-survivor; Guardian interactive: http://www.theguardian.com/world/interactive/2013/may/26/firestorm-bushfire-dunalley-holmes-family; Storycorps: http://storycorps.org//. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| Description | Local Advisory Group, LAG regular meetings every 6 months at the 7 study catchments |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | In the Dry project we hold 6 monthly regular meeting at each study catchment: Bevils Lean, Fowey, Don, Eden, Frome, Ebbw and Pang. These meeting include the stakeholders, general public, the local Environment Agency officer, the local water company officer, the local farmers, the local Environment enthusiasts, small businesses, local school representative and local ex professional hydrologists. We present the modelling results, identifying problems and gap in our information and understanding. These often lead to a debate and most of the times, we receive feedback and extra support from the LAG. In 2016, a member of the Pang catchment LAG organized a guided tour to the gauging stations and showed where the stream flow of the Pang can be affected by the River Thames during the high flow periods. This also was followed by receiving reports on the historical flows at several gauging stations from a new member of the LAG. Example of last year meeting March 2016-February 2017: Stakeholders meetings i. Presentation to the national Stakeholders meeting at UWE on June 9, 2016. ii. Presentations every 6 months to local Stakeholders. Local Advisory Group "LAG" meetings: ? Eden catchment: May 19, 2016 and February 6, 2017, SCG meeting , February 7, 2017 ? Pang catchment: July 6, 2016 and February 17, 2017 ? Fowey catchment: February 18, 2016 and November 1, 2016 ? Bevills Leam catchment: July 5, 2016 and January 17, 2017 ? Frome catchment: June 7, 2016 and January 24, 2017 ? Don catchment: March 7, 2016 and October 11, 2016 ? Ebbw catchment: July 4, 2016, January 19, 2017 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014,2015,2016,2017 |
| URL | http://dryproject.co.uk/ |
| Description | Meeting with NFU Newmarket |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Third sector organisations |
| Results and Impact | Meeting with the NFU and UKIA to discuss the development of a 'water strategy' for England, UK. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | National irrigation and Flloding event (February 27th 2019) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The Agriculture team of the 'About Drought' development of the DRY project presented posters, talks and other drought outputs from the projects to a range of interested parties as detailed above. The overall event (Show) is the national Irrigation and flooding event which includes a wide range of companies and professionals who are involved in or affected by water availability in droughts or flooding events. Members of the About Drought team gave presentations on various aspects of the development and included investigators from Harper Adams University, Cranfield University and the University of the West of England. The presentations and posters promoted discussion from interested parties relating to the uncertainty of climate projections, the likely effects and tools being developed such as the D-Risk tool. A questionnaire was also used to collect information about the impacts of the 2018 drought on crop production by farmers from across the UK. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://www.irrigex.com/ukia-conference |
| Description | Participation in a Local Advisory Group meeting and presentation of Agricultural mesocosm results (Bevills Leam, Cambridgeshire) 28th February 2019 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Study participants or study members |
| Results and Impact | The meeting is a local advisory group meeting for people and interested parties. The meeting has several purposes: Collect information and narratives, discuss the progress of the DRY project and the Utility which is being built, present information from agricultural mesocosm experiments on crop response to reduced rainfall based on climate change scenario, discuss future plans and interactions. This was a small meeting which included several members of the DRY team from UWE, CEH, Loughboro University and Harper Adams University, plus local growers, NFU, Wildlife trust, local archivists. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Stakeholder Workshop (Eden Local Advisory Group meeting 3) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | This was a periodic workshop to share news of the ongoing project research and seek views from local stakeholders. The stakeholders represent public sector bodies, charities, and businesses in the Eden catchment. As previously, we began with the latest results of our hydrological modelling, leading to a discussion about the range of modelling techniques used - their strengths and limitations. We presented the results of some investigation into using water attenuation techniques to benefit drought as well as flood management - a number of problems were identified, and considered as the possible focus for future research. A presentation on drought resistant crops was well received. Group members were asked to consider ideas for the type of utility which could best assist water users moving forward. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| Description | Stakeholder meeting (Eden Local Advisory Group 2) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | This was a periodic workshop to share news of the ongoing project research and seek views from the local stakeholders. The stakeholders represent public sector bodies, charities, and businesses within the Eden catchment. We presented the latest results of our hydrological modelling, leading to a discussion focusing on the data inputs - water transfers between catchments for supply, borehole abstractions and irrigation demands in particular. An engaging discussion focused on how to engage people locally with the idea of drought risk in a climate change context - a major issue is that flood is much more of a risk here than drought. We also discussed changes in irrigation demand and timing as a function of shifts in the market for crops. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016,2017 |