Weather-induced single point of failure assessment methodology for railways
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Birmingham
Department Name: Civil Engineering
Abstract
The rail sector is of great and growing importance to the economic and social functioning of the UK. Passenger usage has increase by over 50% compared to 2002-2003, with the amount of freight carried growing at a similar rate (Office of Rail Regulation, 2015). In maintaining a reliable service, Network Rail (NR) faces the twin challenges of responding to the impacts of weather events on a day-to-day basis whilst planning and implementing long-term adaptation work. Of critical importance to informing targeted cost-effective actions at both timescales is a better understanding of what the DfT Brown Review (2014) termed 'single-points of failure': critical sections of the rail network which have large scale impacts for society and economy, as exemplified by the collapse of the Dawlish Sea Wall in February 2014.
This project aims to produce a transformative data-driven approach to map the criticality to weather-induced natural hazards as a fundamental step in both improved extreme event management and climate change adaptation prioritisation. Key to this is an expert-led metric for network criticality which can be used to identify the most critical locations on the network. This will allow NR to determine where adaptation work will have optimal benefit, whilst also aiding the allocation of resources and operational decisions during extreme events, reducing disruption-related costs and improving service to customers. The project has the following objectives:
1. Define the key determinants of criticality from Network Rail's perspective.
2. Formulate a criticality metric based on the determinants identified in objective 1.
3. Demonstrate the metric on a Network Rail route and identify network-critical sections of track.
4. Elicit views on implications for adaptation actions and extreme event management.
The results are designed to be applicable to the entirety of NR's network and would inform decisions made on the 20,000 miles of track and 2,500 stations that NR owns and operates. To be cost-effective, the utilisation of the metric will need to enable a reduction in network disruption of around 0.1-0.2%, achieved through smarter allocation of resources/adaptation actions to those areas where the consequences of weather-related incidents in terms of network disruption is greatest. We believe that by integrating the results of this project into the existing NR systems described above, the company will be able to target conservatively a reduction of 3-5% of weather-related disruption, which would yield annual savings of £1.5-£2.5 million. These direct savings to NR would be multiplied further by the full economic savings to UK PLC, contributing to improved national productivity, and would also have impact on non-monetised benefits to society through more resilient mobility.
Keywords: extreme weather; climate change; rail transport; disruption; resilience; business continuity
This project aims to produce a transformative data-driven approach to map the criticality to weather-induced natural hazards as a fundamental step in both improved extreme event management and climate change adaptation prioritisation. Key to this is an expert-led metric for network criticality which can be used to identify the most critical locations on the network. This will allow NR to determine where adaptation work will have optimal benefit, whilst also aiding the allocation of resources and operational decisions during extreme events, reducing disruption-related costs and improving service to customers. The project has the following objectives:
1. Define the key determinants of criticality from Network Rail's perspective.
2. Formulate a criticality metric based on the determinants identified in objective 1.
3. Demonstrate the metric on a Network Rail route and identify network-critical sections of track.
4. Elicit views on implications for adaptation actions and extreme event management.
The results are designed to be applicable to the entirety of NR's network and would inform decisions made on the 20,000 miles of track and 2,500 stations that NR owns and operates. To be cost-effective, the utilisation of the metric will need to enable a reduction in network disruption of around 0.1-0.2%, achieved through smarter allocation of resources/adaptation actions to those areas where the consequences of weather-related incidents in terms of network disruption is greatest. We believe that by integrating the results of this project into the existing NR systems described above, the company will be able to target conservatively a reduction of 3-5% of weather-related disruption, which would yield annual savings of £1.5-£2.5 million. These direct savings to NR would be multiplied further by the full economic savings to UK PLC, contributing to improved national productivity, and would also have impact on non-monetised benefits to society through more resilient mobility.
Keywords: extreme weather; climate change; rail transport; disruption; resilience; business continuity
Planned Impact
The project results have two distinct but related levels of application and impact within Network Rail. Firstly, the results will feed directly into the decision making-process involved with the response to forecasted hazardous weather. This will be enacted primarily through integration with the EWAT (Extreme Weather Action Team) system, enacted when extreme weather warnings are issued. The additional resource of mapped network criticality will allow the likely impact of weather-related incidents in the area at risk to be ascertained in a quantified format, allowing NR to allocate resources to those locations from which delays propagate widely through the network.
Secondly, the metric would feed into the wider adaptation prioritisation process e.g. the identification of areas where high natural hazard risk, high network criticality, asset condition and additional stress from climate change necessitates proactive adaptation outside of the existing maintenance/renewal cycle. This information will incorporated into the adaptation process through future iterations of the recently launched Route Weather Resilience and Climate Change Adaptation Plans: industry-leading 'live' documents synthesising current knowledge on risk and inform practical adaptation actions. Importantly, the information will be camped in national importance rather than solely route importance, allowing NR to coordinate work which will have the greatest impact on overall delays.
The results are designed to be applicable to the entirety of NR's network and would inform decisions made on the 20,000 miles of track and 2,500 stations that NR owns and operates. To be cost-effective, the utilisation of the metric will need to enable a reduction in network disruption of around 0.1-0.2%, achieved through smarter allocation of resources/adaptation actions to those areas where the consequences of weather-related incidents in terms of network disruption is greatest. We believe that by integrating the results of this project into the existing NR systems described above, the company will be able to target conservatively a reduction of 3-5% of weather-related disruption, which would yield annual savings of £1.5-£2.5 million. These direct savings to NR would be multiplied further by the full economic savings to UK PLC, contributing to improved national productivity, and would also have impact on non-monetised benefits to society through more resilient mobility. Moreover, the project has the following expected impacts:
1. Elicitation and formalisation of critical and previously untapped tacit industrial knowledge that will feed directly into better decision-making
2. Provide an approach for assessing network criticality allowing NR to understand vulnerabilities to their network in a rigorous manner grounded in their needs.
3. Identify critical locations the where short and long-term resilience-building measures should be applied.
4. Reduce Schedule 8 fines (paid by NR due to poor performance on their part) through improved decisions on extreme event management and long-term adaptation
5. Contribute to bridging the gap between route considerations and national-scale impacts
6. Develop a vision for cost-effective adaptation by formulating a blueprint for the incorporation of further layers in the risk mapping process
Secondly, the metric would feed into the wider adaptation prioritisation process e.g. the identification of areas where high natural hazard risk, high network criticality, asset condition and additional stress from climate change necessitates proactive adaptation outside of the existing maintenance/renewal cycle. This information will incorporated into the adaptation process through future iterations of the recently launched Route Weather Resilience and Climate Change Adaptation Plans: industry-leading 'live' documents synthesising current knowledge on risk and inform practical adaptation actions. Importantly, the information will be camped in national importance rather than solely route importance, allowing NR to coordinate work which will have the greatest impact on overall delays.
The results are designed to be applicable to the entirety of NR's network and would inform decisions made on the 20,000 miles of track and 2,500 stations that NR owns and operates. To be cost-effective, the utilisation of the metric will need to enable a reduction in network disruption of around 0.1-0.2%, achieved through smarter allocation of resources/adaptation actions to those areas where the consequences of weather-related incidents in terms of network disruption is greatest. We believe that by integrating the results of this project into the existing NR systems described above, the company will be able to target conservatively a reduction of 3-5% of weather-related disruption, which would yield annual savings of £1.5-£2.5 million. These direct savings to NR would be multiplied further by the full economic savings to UK PLC, contributing to improved national productivity, and would also have impact on non-monetised benefits to society through more resilient mobility. Moreover, the project has the following expected impacts:
1. Elicitation and formalisation of critical and previously untapped tacit industrial knowledge that will feed directly into better decision-making
2. Provide an approach for assessing network criticality allowing NR to understand vulnerabilities to their network in a rigorous manner grounded in their needs.
3. Identify critical locations the where short and long-term resilience-building measures should be applied.
4. Reduce Schedule 8 fines (paid by NR due to poor performance on their part) through improved decisions on extreme event management and long-term adaptation
5. Contribute to bridging the gap between route considerations and national-scale impacts
6. Develop a vision for cost-effective adaptation by formulating a blueprint for the incorporation of further layers in the risk mapping process
| Description | This project has formulated and applied a new approach for weather-related network criticality assessment which allows the rail industry (as well as other actors in the transport sphere) to identify those locations on the network which tend to cause widespread disruption when affected by severe weather. The project followed an iterative process of extensive knowledge and requirements gathering through interviews and workshops with key Network Rail staff, followed by metric development, data analysis and mapping, with evaluation and further modifications following feedback from stakeholders. Output included an internal compendium of determinants of criticality and a GIS-based application of the metric for a Network Rail route (Wessex). The outputs have been designed to form a layer of Network Rail's extreme weather event response and climate change adaptation decision-making process. The project achieved significant novel output by defining network criticality and identifying the key variables which influence this. Interviews were held with key Network Rail staff with responsibilities including performance, route control, adaptation and maintenance. A workshop was held at Network Rail in Milton Keynes to review this knowledge and to reach consensus on the prioritisation of determinants. A visit and meetings were arranged at the Wessex Route's Integrated Control Centre at Waterloo to understand its network and operational characteristics. The information gathered was used to inform a multi-variable metric to quantify and map the criticality of links in terms of network performance under adverse weather conditions. The project used the above information and resulting metric to expand the analysis of weather-related disruption from single case studies (such as those developed during the EPSRC-funded FUTURENET project - see Jaroszweski et al, 2015) to ensembles of events over many years to identify the 'typical' disruption characteristics of incidents at all network locations within an Network Rail Route (Wessex). Train delay data from Network Rail's TRUST database were extracted from Network Rail in Milton Keynes for the period 2011 to mid-2016. Several variable layers including potential for inter-route propagation and overall delay magnitude were included in several different combinations to map criticality different Network Rail actors' viewpoints. A meeting was held at the Waterloo to discuss initial criticality plots and identify potential data issues and adjustments based on route knowledge. A workshop was held at Network Rail in Milton Keynes to in order to determine i) implications for allocation of resources during extreme events and long-term adaptation ii) implementation in Network Rail systems iii) further modifications. The project also laid the foundations for the consideration of transport network criticality from a multimodal/mobility systems perspective that will look at how decisions can be made which best serve users' needs. A final workshop 'Towards a Systems Approach to Transport Resilience and Adaptation' chaired by John Dora of John Dora Consulting was held at the Transport Systems Catapult in November 2016, discussing how the output and techniques can be applied to a multimodal transport system. This included participants from several different transport modes, as well as academics and policymakers. |
| Exploitation Route | The ultimate aim will be the inclusion of the data layer into Network Rail's extreme weather response and climate change adaptation processes. The additional layer of criticality will serve as an initial quantified guide as to where to prioritise during extreme events. Further work will be needed to integrate the metric into NR's decision-making system, including additional analysis of delay data, the roll-out of the metric to all network links and the creation of a decision-support tool to link several important layers in the decision making process (including weather forecasts and asset condition). The ultimate aim is to move from 'link' criticality to asset criticality, where actions can be targeted on specific individual assets. The idea is to link existing quantified knowledge on the relationships between weather and asset failure. NR's MetEx project determined quantitative relationships between weather and asset failure. In the future we will investigate the possibility of collaborating with meteorological services providers to create a system capable of identifying specific asset types (and ultimately individual assets in situ) at risk under certain forecasted conditions. The researchers will also seek to utilise the metric to inform the placement of autonomous condition monitoring activities, i.e. the placement of sensors where the benefits of reducing network disruption are greatest. |
| Sectors | Transport |
| Description | This feasibility project has led to a successful fellowship bid under NERC's National Productivity Investment Fund Scheme to further develop the concept of targeted weather-related transport decision making in a multimodal context. The project 'Keeping the Midlands Engine running: a blueprint for next generation weather and climate services for transport' received the support of a wide range of industry stakeholders including the Met Office, Network Rail, the Rail Delivery Group and Highways England and commenced in December 2017. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2017 |
| Sector | Environment,Transport |
| Impact Types | Societal,Economic,Policy & public services |
| Description | Additional funds to extend existing grant (Environmental Risk to Infrastructure Innovation Programme - additional work relating to Global Challenges scheme) |
| Amount | £12,467 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | NE/N012941/1 |
| Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 03/2017 |
| End | 03/2017 |
| Description | NERC National Productivity Investment Fund Fellowships |
| Amount | £408,016 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | NE/R013691/1 |
| Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
| Department | NERC Postdoctoral Fellowship |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 12/2017 |
| End | 05/2021 |
| Title | Single point of failure analysis methodology for railways |
| Description | A multi-variable metric was formulated to quantify and map the criticality of links to network performance under adverse weather conditions. Several variable layers including potential for inter-route propagation and overall delay magnitude were included in several different combinations to map criticality from different Network Rail actors' viewpoints. The approach can give an indication of the relative importance of specific links in the rail network to different stakeholders. The ultimate aim is to aid the prioritisation of actions during extreme events as well as longer-term adaptation measures. Train delay data from NR's TRUST database were extracted from NR over the period of 2011 to mid 2016. The output of the link criticality analysis was represented in GIS (Geographical Information Systems) form. |
| Type Of Material | Data analysis technique |
| Year Produced | 2016 |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | Development of impact is ongoing, and includes discussions around integration of approach and output for weather event response and climate change adaptation. The methodology has been applied to different geographic areas in ongoing PhD research. |
| Description | Partnership with Network Rail |
| Organisation | Network Rail Ltd |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Private |
| PI Contribution | Our research team initiated the partnership with Network Rail during the proposal-writing stage of the Environmental Risks to Infrastructure Innovation Proframme call. As well as fulfilling the research objectives and reporting to Network Rail, we also achieved an additional output of engaging disparate stakeholder groups within Network Rail (through workshops), resulting in shared knowledge-building aimed at mitigating the impact of weather on train services, which may not have occurred during the normal course of operations |
| Collaborator Contribution | Network Rail provided access to data and expertise during the course of this project. Network Rail were involved in this project during the proposal writing stage and helped the research team understand the industry problem to be addressed (impact of weather-related hazards and disruption on network operations). Access to important datasets such as the TRUST delay data, Fault Management System data and Geographical Information Systems files was provided. Network Rail also provided access to personnel with responsibilities and expertise in the handling of extreme weather events and climate change adaptation. This included staff from Operations, Performance and the Routes. Space was provided for internal workshops to discuss the development of the criticality metric. 8 face-to-face interviews were conducted during the course of the project. A visit was made to the Route Control Centre at Waterloo to discuss the metric with staff responsible for responding to weather events. |
| Impact | Increased links between research team and Network Rail stakeholders Elicitation of tacit knowledge from Network Rail which has been formalised in the criticality metric Shared knowledge between different Network Rail stakeholders Inclusion of Network Rail as stakeholder in the fellowship award NE/R013691/1 - 'Keeping the Midlands Engine running: a blueprint for next generation weather and climate services for transport' |
| Start Year | 2016 |