Building Bhutanese Resilience Against Cataclysmic Events (BRACE)

BRACE is a transdisciplinary project that will forge new relationships among geoscientists, engineers, social scientists, historians, and policy makers to address seismic risk and develop resilience-building strategies. This will be achieved through collaborative research and outreach between UK and US researchers and academics and government officials in the Himalayan Kingdom of Bhutan, an ODA recipient country. This novel attempt to develop a multi-pronged approach will reduce earthquake disaster risk, and bring geological, geomorphological and seismological work into conversation with both historical records held in Bhutanese archives and with research into contemporary Bhutanese governance, disaster preparedness, and effective communication strategies for risk reduction. By merging new research in these fields with close consultation with in-country policymakers and engineers, our long-term aim is to develop a sustainable framework for improving Bhutanese resilience to earthquakes and their secondary effects.
We will combine expertise in tectonics, seismology, geomorphology, engineering, cultural history, environmental decision making (governance), development, and education to investigate the links between historical records of seismicity, seismic hazards, and the impact of earthquakes on environmental issues, infrastructure and populations. The aim will be to develop resilience and research capacity within Bhutan to cope with earthquakes and their cascading effects on environment, infrastructure, and society.
The underlying drivers of disaster risk are currently poorly understood. The Himalaya are highly seismically active (highlighted by the 2015 magnitude 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal), but Bhutan appears to represent a region of relative seismic quiescence. There is currently little understanding of seismic hazard in Bhutan, and therefore of the potential disruption to landscape and infrastructure, and the consequent impacts on access to food, water, energy, and impact for the health and wellbeing of society. In addition, the regional tectonics and poorly known fault network appear structurally complex and present challenges to assessing future earthquake potential. Bhutan is a rapidly developing country in which traditional modes of life and architecture are being challenged by moves to urban areas where population density has increased. Urban areas are rapidly expanding but building standards are not sufficient to withstand future seismic events, thus presenting a clear call to action.
Strengthening resilience to earthquakes and their secondary effects presents transdisciplinary and multi-stakeholder challenges. The interaction between social systems and physical processes results in layers of complexity, which challenge businesses, governments and policy makers, particularly at times of rapid change or shock after a natural disaster. This project will bring a transdisciplinary perspective in which the knowledge of geoscientists, engineers, historians, social scientists, policy makers and practitioners, as well as local knowledge and lay views, are considered. Scientific research identifies pathways and opportunities available to society in times of shock, and combined with a social science perspective can identify the pathways to resilience and rebuilding.
Historical archives provide rich data on past seismic events that can help to build an understanding of seismic hazard. However, little work has been done to investigate the potential of Bhutanese historical records to collect and constrain information about past earthquakes. Such data are critical to our understanding of today's seismic hazard as well as the structural makeup of the tectonic plate boundary in the eastern Himalaya. We will assess the availability of documentary data on past earthquakes using selected archives to develop a catalogue of historical seismic activity and vulnerability, as well as indigenous response and coping mechanisms.

The central objective of BRACE is to develop methodologies that combine academic research with practitioners working in engineering or disaster response, and policy makers in order to have an impact on resilience strategies. This foundation stage will provide direct impacts for Bhutan and set up the potential for longer-term impacts such as working to improve construction practices.

The project will provide a new dataset for Bhutan and BRACE will help integrate these new findings with existing data to create improved hazard assessments and policies for long-term development and short-term emergency management.
- We will work with our partners in Bhutan to increase capacity and awareness for the assessment of seismic risk and secondary hazards.
- We will work with our partners to ensure our research is formulated in ways that meet the needs of all sectors.
- We will deliver research outputs and methods to provide effective and swift decision-making and communication directly after seismic events and secondary hazards. Output and decision-making protocols will be provided to local stakeholders through advice and broad mass communication tools.

BRACE has already developed and engaged a strong network of collaborators in Bhutan who will benefit directly from the proposed research:

The Department of Geology and Mines (DGM) is the branch of the Bhutanese Government that oversees the assessment of seismic hazards. Our work will help to increase the accuracy of their assessments.

The Royal University of Bhutan's Research Centre for Disaster Risk Reduction and Community Development Studies seeks to identify how to raise awareness of seismic risk amongst policy makers, construction companies and other businesses, and the general public. This work will feed into the development of building codes in accordance with this seismic risk, and to make contingency plans for secondary hazards in vulnerable locations.

The Centre for Archaeology and Historical Studies at the Royal University of Bhutan will work closely with us to establish how historical records can be important for managing hazards. BRACE will also demonstrate the importance of archival material to public policy and development more generally.

The Shejun Agency for Bhutan's Cultural Documentation and Research is a premier non-governmental organisation with over a decade of experience in documentation and study of Bhutan's ancient archives and oral historical memories, some of which contain records of earthquakes. The BRACE project will tie in closely with the Shejun Agency's current study of traditional social managements, community responses, and religious rituals during times of disasters such as an earthquake.

We will also engage with wider educational programmes and raise awareness for all citizens through partnership with the Royal Tutorial Project to provide filmed material for a minimum of four of 30-minute films to be broadcast on Bhutanese national television.

In addition to links with Bhutan organisations, BRACE will partner with the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), which developed the great ShakeOut Earthquake Drill in partnership with numerous organisations and governments to practice what to do during an earthquake and how to improve preparedness. SCEC will provide support for facilitating Bhutanese participation in the annual earthquake drill.

Finally, we will engage with the National Environment Commission (NEC), a branch of the Bhutan Government responsible for actions involving environmental policies.

Letters of support from all of our Project Partners plus the University of Bristol's Cabot Institute are included in this submission.