REMAID: REframing climate change impact Modelling and Adaptation in the Global South through integration of InDigenous knowledge with climate models
Lead Research Organisation:
NORTHUMBRIA UNIVERSITY
Abstract
REMAID will develop a transferable methodology for integrating climate information from Indigenous oral traditions into frameworks for improving contemporary climate models. Our goal is to improve projections of future climate change in data scarce Global South regions and support adaptation of vulnerable populations to the impacts of global warming. Many Global Southern regions lack the historic weather station records needed to evaluate climate model simulations and provide detailed understanding of local-scale climate processes. This hinders generation of high-resolution outputs for impact studies and early warning systems. Meteorological data scarcity is extreme in Saharan Africa, undermining climate risk reduction through adaptation, as acknowledged by the UN. However, several Saharan regions have rich oral traditions that encapsulate historical weather back to the late nineteenth century. REMAID will harness these oral traditions to improve reconstructions of historic climate variability and extremes, and climate projections in data-scarce regions. This will have groundbreaking impact on physical climate science, in demonstrating the value of Indigenous poetry as a climatic information source, on policy development in affected communities, and on scholars of Hassaniya poetry, who will benefit from physical explanations of historical climate conditions that can transform poetry interpretations.
In the absence of instrumental and documentary records, or climate proxies (such as tree rings), we innovate in using historic climate information drawn from a nomadic oral tradition. Saharan nomads use poetry to pass knowledge between generations, including histories of climatic patterns dateable using the Saharawi calendar back to the 19th century, before human-caused climate change effects became noticeable. By interpreting poetic accounts of the seasonality of historic rains, temperatures, and climatic indicators recorded in descriptions of phenology and grazing patterns, we will illuminate past climate trends and shifts in the timing, duration and character of seasons. This information can be used to test climate model performance, by evaluating simulations of past climatic conditions in terms of their cycles of variability and trends over time. Additionally, to support robust monitoring and recording of regional climate, we will establish a new climate monitoring network in western Sahara using state-of-the-art weather sensors. This will provide unprecedented insight into the contemporary Saharan climate as well as immediate and valuable benefits for climate risk reduction (e.g., through improved early warning).
The project addresses three linked interdisciplinary Research Objectives (ROs): RO1. Co-developing a transferable methodology for using Indigenous meteorological knowledge to evaluate reanalyses and climate models (lead: JA). RO2. Establishing an interdisciplinary climate monitoring and modelling network “Climate Network” in western Sahara (lead: BB). RO3. Exchanging project findings and methodological developments with key stakeholders and co-developing adaptation strategies using improved projections (leads: JA and BB).
These objectives will be achieved through the following activities: 1. Recording and analysing poetry from the Hassaniya oral tradition (a poetic tradition spanning all Western Sahara and Mauritania) and translating relevant climatic information into a matrix usable for climate scientists. 2. Designing the Climate Network with Saharawi nomads and partners and training local communities to monitor and maintain it 3 Targeting key stakeholders (climate modelling communities, other Indigenous communities with rich oral traditions, the African Union and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) with dissemination materials and methods that go beyond academic outputs and events. 4. Developing a group ethnography charting our development of anti-colonial, interdisciplinary working methods to highlight and challenge team and disciplinary hierarchies.
In the absence of instrumental and documentary records, or climate proxies (such as tree rings), we innovate in using historic climate information drawn from a nomadic oral tradition. Saharan nomads use poetry to pass knowledge between generations, including histories of climatic patterns dateable using the Saharawi calendar back to the 19th century, before human-caused climate change effects became noticeable. By interpreting poetic accounts of the seasonality of historic rains, temperatures, and climatic indicators recorded in descriptions of phenology and grazing patterns, we will illuminate past climate trends and shifts in the timing, duration and character of seasons. This information can be used to test climate model performance, by evaluating simulations of past climatic conditions in terms of their cycles of variability and trends over time. Additionally, to support robust monitoring and recording of regional climate, we will establish a new climate monitoring network in western Sahara using state-of-the-art weather sensors. This will provide unprecedented insight into the contemporary Saharan climate as well as immediate and valuable benefits for climate risk reduction (e.g., through improved early warning).
The project addresses three linked interdisciplinary Research Objectives (ROs): RO1. Co-developing a transferable methodology for using Indigenous meteorological knowledge to evaluate reanalyses and climate models (lead: JA). RO2. Establishing an interdisciplinary climate monitoring and modelling network “Climate Network” in western Sahara (lead: BB). RO3. Exchanging project findings and methodological developments with key stakeholders and co-developing adaptation strategies using improved projections (leads: JA and BB).
These objectives will be achieved through the following activities: 1. Recording and analysing poetry from the Hassaniya oral tradition (a poetic tradition spanning all Western Sahara and Mauritania) and translating relevant climatic information into a matrix usable for climate scientists. 2. Designing the Climate Network with Saharawi nomads and partners and training local communities to monitor and maintain it 3 Targeting key stakeholders (climate modelling communities, other Indigenous communities with rich oral traditions, the African Union and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) with dissemination materials and methods that go beyond academic outputs and events. 4. Developing a group ethnography charting our development of anti-colonial, interdisciplinary working methods to highlight and challenge team and disciplinary hierarchies.