CONNECTing past, present and future: hindcast and forecast of ice-sheet loss between 2000 and 2300

The current trajectory of climate change indicates that global temperatures are likely to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within the next decade. This increases the likelihood of crossing critical climate tipping points, including irreversible loss of ice from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Such changes would accelerate sea-level rise and potentially disrupt global ocean circulation, with profound consequences for global climate, coastal communities, infrastructure and ecosystems. Accurate projections of ice-sheet dynamics are therefore a societal imperative for informed adaptation, risk planning, and policy development.
The Fellowship, led by Dr. Jan De Rydt, addresses these challenges by integrating satellite observations with advanced numerical modelling to improve long-term sea-level rise forecasts from Antarctica and Greenland. Early achievements include a widely cited paper on West Antarctic ice loss, and the development of international benchmarking standards for ice-ocean models. The team has organised a major international symposium on cryospheric modelling, established new high-impact collaborations (OCEAN ICE and PRECISE), and published ten influential papers.
Both phases of the Fellowship are structured around three work packages (WPs) aimed at improving model fidelity: WP1 enhances model initialisation using satellite data and machine learning; WP2 explores physical model uncertainties; and WP3 projects long-term changes under evolving climate scenarios. A core focus across all WPs is the interaction between ice sheets and the ocean, which drives the majority of observed ice loss.
The team, now five strong, brings complementary expertise in ice-sheet modelling and ocean–ice interactions, forming the foundation for the proposed second phase of the Fellowship. Two new research strands will be introduced: (1) modelling the impact of ice-shelf collapse in North Greenland, and (2) incorporating dynamic ice-shelf margins into coupled ice–ocean models of West Antarctica. Both aim to refine near-term and post-2100 sea-level rise projections. Four new objectives (O7–O10) will guide the renewal phase, harnessing novel data assimilation, improved coupling techniques, and emerging capabilities in simulating ice-shelf dynamics. These outcomes will feed directly into international efforts such as ISMIP7, future IPCC reports, and broader climate policy discussions.
During the renewal phase, I will focus on strengthening and expanding my research team by extending two PDRA contracts and supporting team members in securing independent funding. Building on international collaborations through EU Horizon, NSF/NERC, and other projects, I aim to grow our global network, particularly through leadership of MISOMIP2. I will prioritise stakeholder and policy engagement by participating in FLF Development Network sessions and applying to the Royal Society Pairing Scheme to deepen science–policy links. Applying for a professorship and preparing an ERC Advanced Grant application will mark the next milestones in my longer-term academic leadership journey.