Science for Adaptation: Learning and Innovation in EvideNce about future climaTe

Climate change is intensifying, with devastating impacts. Adaptation is urgent to reduce climate risk. Climate science has potential to inform adaptation, by providing evidence about how climate is likely to change at a regional or local scale. Climate service providers are already using climate models run in future experiments to inform decision-makers about future climate change impacts. Whilst climate models are remarkable tools, their future projections can be very challenging to use for decision-making. The models are being run into the future, so we cannot verify their projections using observations. Also, even when run with the same future scenario, different models can show different projections of regional climate change. For example, in many southern African countries, some models suggest the rainy season will get wetter, whilst others suggest it will get drier. Communicating this uncertainty is very challenging. Therefore, when providing information about future climate, scientists and consultants have to make tricky choices about which models to use, how to analyse their data, and how to communicate the results. It is not surprising therefore that sources of information about future climate sometimes contradict one other. With this confusing information landscape, it is difficult for city planners or disaster risk managers to be able to interpret and use this information to reduce future risk.
The SALIENT project is designed to address this challenge. Often, generating information is viewed as translation or application of science. However, there is no common scientific understanding of future climate that can be applied or translated. Novel research is needed to improve understanding of what is expected to happen in future – research which uses climate model simulations, but also builds in other important sources of evidence including observations,  process understanding, and expert judgement. New research is also needed into the communication of future climate uncertainties, learning from other applications (such as public health) and disciplines (such as psychology) to design and test the effectiveness of different approaches to communicating about future climate.
SALIENT focuses on building this novel, transdisciplinary, research. We combine cutting-edge climate science (using hundreds of climate model runs, convective-permitting simulations, and analysis of future climate processes), with formal approaches to expert judgement, and risk communication research methods (including  surveys and workshops). We also conduct research to investigate the context for future climate information, and how it is currently being used, through document analysis and interviews. We are using insights from our research to generate future climate information which is both scientifically rigorous and meaningful, and guidance for climate service providers. Ultimately, our vision is to enable decision-makers access to the best possible evidence about future climate change.
SALIENT has been running for almost 3 years, so far focusing on southern Africa. We have improved understanding of the use of future climate information in national adaptation planning, and identified promising approaches to better characterise and communicate future climate change, which we are now integrating into tools and guidance. In the second phase of SALIENT, we will deepen and extend our research, including greater emphasis on connecting understanding of climate variability and change, and the use of narratives to communicate multiple possible futures. We will also step up global engagement, exchanging knowledge with other regions and integrating learning into global initiatives to develop guidance and standards for climate information.