Breaking Point? Understanding how changing wind patterns will shape the future of our forests

Trees grow tall to compete for sunlight, but this growth inevitably increases their exposure to wind. There is therefore a fundamental trade-off between competition for light and mechanical stability. This trade-off shapes the global variation in forest structure: from the short, compact canopies of the cyclone belt to the towering trees of the calm tropics. Within forests, different tree species have evolved different growth strategies to balance this trade-off, with implications for forest ecology and management approaches. However, we know surprisingly little about the role of wind in an ecological context, especially relative to other drivers of disturbance such as drought or fire. This severely limits our ability to forecast how shifts in global wind patterns and increasing storm intensities associated with climate change will impacts the world’s forests.
The overarching aim of my fellowship is to predict how changing wind patterns will impact the future of our forests. This will be achieved in three steps. First, I will develop a mechanistic understanding of wind-induced tree mortality. Building on my previous work, I will use novel sensors to measure the vulnerability of canopy dominant trees to wind across 11 sites that span the global variation in wind exposure. Second, I will increase both the scale and temporal resolution of our observational data to estimate the rates and drivers of mortality for large canopy trees. I will use regular drone surveys across my study sites to detect tree mortality events using state-of-the-art artificial intelligence, and combine these data with hourly climate measurements to pinpoint the cause of death. Third, I will leverage my mechanistic understanding and improved observational data to implement wind-induced tree mortality in a global vegetation model for the first time. This groundbreaking approach will enable me to predict how increasing wind speeds will impact forest structure, species composition and carbon storage in the future.
In addition to scientific advances, my fellowship will provide several practical benefits. The sensor technology and computational tools I develop will drastically improve and reduce the cost of forest monitoring in the context of restoration and management. In Sabah, Malaysia, I will build research capacity by providing training in forest monitoring with remote sensing and artificial intelligence, ensuring Sabah remains an important region for forest research. In the UK context, I will compare the wind-vulnerability of forests under different management regimes. This will inform the ongoing shift from clear-cut plantations towards continuous cover forestry and help us grow more climate resilient forests.
In summary, my fellowship will fundamentally transform our understanding of wind as a driver of tree mortality. This will have practical implications for forest management as well as for modelling the forest carbon cycle. My research will therefore address an urgent need to predict how forests will respond to changing wind patterns, and how this will impact their ability to sequester carbon and mitigate climate change.