CO2 and Climate Change: Deciphering the Role of the High Latitude Oceans
Lead Research Organisation:
UNIVERSITY OF ST ANDREWS
Abstract
Today’s ocean helps mitigate climate change by passively absorbing heat and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Conversely, the geological record shows that during the past, the ocean was a dynamic driver of global climate shifts. The causal mechanisms of that switchover remain unresolved. At the start of my FLF, my research was directed at the development of a model hierarchy suitable to discern the role that high latitude ocean dynamics plays in carbon cycling and global climate feedbacks. For my three-year renewal, I have clarified that research vision to capitalise on this model hierarchy, an expanded research network, and recent findings, to focus on addressing the central question: when, and under what conditions, will the ocean carbon cycle change from passive mitigator to dynamic driver? My research group and I will leverage information and inspiration contained in the geological record, place it in context of contemporary knowledge of ocean physical and biogeochemical dynamics and use that to identify causal mechanisms of ocean change. Through this approach, I aim to better constrain projections of the future evolution of the ocean and its climatic impact.
My research will interrogate three core target areas about the past and future evolution of the high latitude oceans and the coupled ocean-atmosphere system.
Target area 1: Atlantic Ocean circulation, ventilation, and carbon cycle: transient change and stability. The circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, particularly the northern subpolar gyre, has broad climatic and carbon cycle impacts. There is extensive evidence of regional change during the paleo record at different time horizons, making it an ideal target for constraining the future evolution of ocean circulation.
Target area 2: Shifting states of carbon and heat cycling in the Southern Ocean. The Southern Ocean, central in the climate system, is undergoing significant changes in the present day, the drivers and consequences of which are highly uncertain and challenging to simulate. The paleo record provides a window into different states for physical and biogeochemical processes in this region and the abrupt transitions between them.
Target area 3: Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics under different climate states. The geological past includes periods of vastly different climate states, far outside the configuration of our modern ocean and atmosphere. They allow for deep scrutinizing of our contemporary theory and understanding in new and untested conditions.
My research will interrogate three core target areas about the past and future evolution of the high latitude oceans and the coupled ocean-atmosphere system.
Target area 1: Atlantic Ocean circulation, ventilation, and carbon cycle: transient change and stability. The circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, particularly the northern subpolar gyre, has broad climatic and carbon cycle impacts. There is extensive evidence of regional change during the paleo record at different time horizons, making it an ideal target for constraining the future evolution of ocean circulation.
Target area 2: Shifting states of carbon and heat cycling in the Southern Ocean. The Southern Ocean, central in the climate system, is undergoing significant changes in the present day, the drivers and consequences of which are highly uncertain and challenging to simulate. The paleo record provides a window into different states for physical and biogeochemical processes in this region and the abrupt transitions between them.
Target area 3: Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics under different climate states. The geological past includes periods of vastly different climate states, far outside the configuration of our modern ocean and atmosphere. They allow for deep scrutinizing of our contemporary theory and understanding in new and untested conditions.