Projecting extreme droughts in rapidly changing human-water systems

Droughts are complex events driven by water fluxes between the atmosphere, land surface, and subsurface. These water fluxes are being modified by humans at unprecedented rates due to climate change and water use by agriculture, industry, energy and public supply. Human activities can intensify or mitigate hydrological droughts, significantly affecting their severity, duration and frequency. However, current hydrological models often neglect these human influences, limiting our ability to predict and manage future drought risk effectively.
The Future Leaders Fellowship (FLF), Projecting extreme droughts in rapidly changing human-water systems, aims to address this challenge through five core objectives:
O1. Develop an integrated modelling framework for coupled human-water systems
O2. Quantify the impact of human-water interactions and feedbacks on hydrological droughts
O3. Assess the trade-offs and importance of human-water use and climate change for droughts
O4. Establish the resilience of Great Britain’s water systems to future extreme drought events
O5. Work with project partners to enact operational change in water resources decision making
Urgency and Importance:
The UK faces projected water shortages by 2050 due to climate change and growing water demand, which could cost the UK economy billions in emergency water supply measures. New research is needed to support regulatory planning requirements (e.g. Environmental Destinations), the assessment of new water infrastructure and fill knowledge gaps on water system resilience to extreme droughts. My FLF accelerates knowledge exchange across the water sector, and delivers the evidence and tools for improved water resources management.
Progress to Date:
In the first phase of the FLF, I have produced innovative science, established and grown my group, consolidated my position as a national leader in hydrology and delivered evidence for improved UK water management. A key outcome is the development of a national-scale hydrological model for Great Britain that integrates surface water, groundwater, and water supply systems. Our research has led to new insights into how human activities, such as water abstraction and wastewater discharges, influence low flows nationally. Collaborations with the Environment Agency, Met Office and Wessex Water have enabled us to assess the reliability of national public water supplies, benchmark operational models for drought management and set out key priorities and future directions of drought research.
Renewal Plans:
For the FLF renewal, I will maintain this upward trajectory by generating innovative science, ensuring the sustainability and development of my group, building capacity across the UK hydrological community, consolidating my position as an international leader in hydrology and enacting change in UK water resources management.
Key planned advances include:
WP1: New modelling capability to model multi-sectoral water demand
WP2: Generating new understanding of human impacts on drought propagation both in the UK and internationally.
WP3: Assessing the resilience of water systems and our capacity to adapt to future extreme droughts
Impact and Leadership:

Our outputs will provide new understanding of the change and variability in hydrological droughts and inform the processes and infrastructure required to balance deficits in water supply. We will enable the development and application of hydrological models that will improve integrated catchment modelling for regulators, consultancies and water companies. We will support water companies and regulators in achieving sustainable abstraction and mitigating climate change impacts by evaluating co-developed management scenarios in project workshops. We will convene workshops that bring together the drought community to accelerate knowledge exchange across the water sector.