The global biodiversity implications of a UK transition to a low carbon economy

Conserving global biodiversity in the face of climate change is widely recognized to be a major global challenge (e.g. Thomas et al. 2004; Pearson et al. 2014) that is likely to be considerably exacerbated by the potential synergistic and additive effects of other drivers of species declines such as land use change (Jetz et al. 2007; Eigenbrod et al. 2014). Furthermore, analyses of global trade patterns have shown that it is Northern demand for goods and services that is largely driving greenhouse gas emissions and land use change in the developing world (e.g. Weinzettel et al. 2013). While decarbonisation of global energy supplies is likely to reduce the impacts of climate change on biodiversity, the impacts of such shifts in energy production away from fossil fuels may have other negative impacts on biodiversity (Agarwala et al. 2014), with the global-scale impacts of decarbonisation on biodiversity remaining largely unknown.
The aim of this PhD is examine the potential global biodiversity implications of a UK transition to a low carbon economy. This work will consist of spatially modelling the degree to which current and future UK (and global) energy demand will spatially coincide with areas of known high biodiversity (e.g., biodiversity hotspots, ecoregions) and ranges of species classified as endangered on the IUCN's Red List. It will also look at potential synergistic impacts of climate change and energy demand on species distributions. This work will build on existing spatial models (e.g. Eigenbrod et al. 2014) as well as coupled global trade hydrological model (in review) developed in Southampton by the lead supervisor Dr Felix Eigenbrod and co-supervisor Prof Gail Taylor, as well as extensive bioclimatic niche modelling expertise of Dr Richard Pearson at UCL (e.g. Pearson et al 2014), who will be a co-advisor on this studentship. This studentship is part of a major (£1.5 million) research consortium - (ADVENT), which is quantifying linkages between energy and environment, and which includes researchers at UEA, UCL, Southampton, Aberdeen and Plymouth Marine Laboratory. As such, the successful applicant will engage with a large community of researchers from across Britain throughout their PhD. The successful applicant will have a good (at least high 2.1) first degree in biology, physical geography or a related discipline, and proven expertise and interest in GIS modelling and statistical analyses. A MSc or MRes in a relevant field would be an asset, but is not a requirement.
The student will based at the Centre for Biological Sciences in Southampton, and will join the community of 60 PhD students in Biology, as well as wider community of ecologists within Biology, Oceanography, Geography and Environment at the University of Southampton. The student will take part in the weekly Ecosystem Conservation Club discussion group in Biology, as well as the weekly Environmental Biosciences seminar series. They will also be expected to give poster and oral presentations in the annual Biological Sciences Student conference, and be given the opportunity to present their findings at international conferences throughout their PhD.
The student will also undergo both generic and specialist research training as part of their PhD in Biological Sciences, including advanced techniques in statistical analysis in R and in GIS, as well as training in CV writing, job interviews, time-management, diversity, and workshops on presentation, teaching and public engagement. The student will also be trained in supervision, and have the opportunity to demonstrate to undergraduates. In combination, this training will equip the student with key transferable skills as outlined by the NERC-led "Review of Skills Needs in the Environment Sector". These include: Multidisciplinarity, Data Management (working with large data sets on field and experimental, and historical data), Translating Research (science to policy), Statistical Analysis; Modelling (part

In addition to the academic community, we envisage three groups of key beneficiaries from the research: (i) government departments and public policy makers; (ii) private sector companies in the energy, water and agriculture sectors; and (iii) the public and society more generally. Our communication, engagement and dissemination plans are described in the Pathways to Impact document. Here we outline the expected impacts of these combined activities.

National Decision-Makers:

A fundamental objective of this project is to quantify and value the natural capital and ecosystem services impacts of different energy pathways. Moreover, based on that knowledge, the project will develop decision-support tools that provide a whole-system assessment of different energy futures. Accordingly, the project's outputs will have direct importance to numerous decision-making agencies including the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), the Department of Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and the Committee on Climate Change (CCC). Each of those agencies has immediate needs for tools that will allow them to assess and compare different possible energy pathways across both the energy and environment spheres. The project will also provide inputs for agencies involved in national policy making regarding natural capital, particularly the on-going development of natural capital accounts being pursued by the National Capital Committee (NCC), Office of National Statistics (ONS) and HM Treasury (HMT). The research team have long track-records of collaboration with each of these organisations ensuring the project's findings will have a pathway for direct dissemination to the relevant decision-making bodies.

Regional Decision-Makers:

In addition, the project will undertake a number of case studies whose regional focus will provide valuable input to local decision-makers. For instance, research on public attitudes to potential marine energy developments in the Bristol Channel-Severn Estuary (WP5.6) will be of interest to Local Enterprise Partnerships given the economic importance of tourism in the region. Similarly, the work on implications of changes in energy consumption in north-eastern Scotland will be of relevance to unitary authorities within the region with respect to strategic planning and decisions regarding future infrastructure investments.

Private Sector:

Outputs of the project will also be of direct relevance to a number of businesses and organisations in the private sector. The strategic planning of energy companies will be particularly enhanced by better understanding of potential environmental impacts from their operations and how natural capital considerations might constrain these in the future. Similarly, the water supply industry has an obvious interest in the implications of future energy pathways for water resources and how these could influence future investments in abstraction, treatment and distribution infrastructure. The agricultural sector also stand to benefit from project's outputs. In particular, the project will provide insights into possible future demands for bioenergy and spatial variations in the availability of water for irrigation purposes. In addition, the project will provide information directly relevant to businesses in the energy, water and food sectors with interests in developing corporate natural capital accounts.

Public and Wider Society:

The final group to be impacted by the project will be society more generally. The project's outputs will help ensure that the public's valuation of important natural assets such as green spaces used for recreation and landscapes enjoyed for their visual amenity are meaningfully represented in decisions concerning future energy pathways. These insights will also be relevant to the work of many environmental NGOs such as the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds and county wildlife trusts.