Understanding the development of conspiracy theories in online communities at scale

Groups of individuals have long come together to question complex social and political events, developing alternative and often simplified narratives involving secret plots by powerful actors (Barkun, 2013; Butter & Knight, 2020; Douglas et al., 2019) - a process recognised as an instance of collective sensemaking (van Prooijen, 2012). These narratives are often described as conspiracy theories. Given the scale and connectivity of the Internet, work from within cultural studies (Butter & Knight, 2015; Uscinski, 2019), social psychology (Douglas et al., 2017; Pennycook & Rand, 2021), computer and data science (Bessi et al., 2016; Shahsavari et al., 2020; Vicario et al., 2016) have begun to question the role online networks play in the development and circulation of conspiratorial ideas.

The research aims to contribute to our understanding of such phenomena by combining these disciplinary perspectives in an exploration of the (1) content, (2) development, and (3) intervention of conspiracy theories online.

The project will first employ constructs from narrative theory to explore the content of conspiracy theories found online; are there universal characteristics, components, and/or structures related to those that become widely popular, and do "failed" conspiratorial narratives violate this?

This higher-level question will lead into some more in-depth questions related to their development; how are these stories collectively created - or pieced together - in online communities? Here, the concept of collective sensemaking will become relevant. The degree to which online platforms support and/or amplify processes of collective sensemaking will be explored, as well as whether schisms in narrative uptake occur during such processes.

Finally, the project's findings will be used to bolster our understanding of intervention initiatives, and the implications of countering the development of online conspiracy theories considered. For instance, in better understanding what it is that makes certain conspiracy theories gain more traction that others, as well as the processes of their collective development, not only could this project aid the creation of counter-narratives, but also elucidate opportunities for their injection. Intervention is important in some cases, as certain conspiracy theories can have harmful and tangible consequences (e.g., vaccine resistance especially during the pandemic (Pummerer et al., 2021; Shahsavari et al., 2020)).

We will employ a mixed methodological approach to address these research questions, drawing from computational social science (e.g., computational linguistics, part-of-speech tagging and/or social network theory) and more traditional ethnographic techniques on- and offline.

This project is funded by EPSRC via the Centre for Doctoral Training in Cyber Security (Trust, Identity, Privacy and Security at Scale). Not only will I be considering interactions between people, but also interactions between people and technology, as well as how the former is supported by the technological systems in use. This undoubtedly brings into question aspects related to online trust, identity, and Internet security.

Who will benefit?

The inter-disciplinary doctoral graduates trained within the CDT will play a key role in addressing the acute shortage of highly skilled workers in this area, hence meeting industry and government needs. The research they will conduct in the CDT and their future work will strongly impact industry, government, academia and society. Industrial applications cover those involving large-scale, socio-technical infrastructures where resilience-at-scale is a fundamental need, such as, intelligent transportation, finance, digital healthcare, energy generation & distribution and advanced manufacturing. The globally unique capacity focusing on TIPS-at-Scale will position the UK as a world-leader, offering major economic benefits by ensuring that the UK is a safe place in which to do business, and social benefits in terms of security and privacy of the individual.

More specifically, the CDT's research and training programme will provide graduates with capabilities to address socio-technical challenges of TIPS-at-Scale, including understanding of user and adversarial behaviours. This is of major importance to digital infrastructure providers, government agencies and law enforcement agencies. This is in addition to the wider business and health sectors where the protection of data and the physical processes controlled by large-scale infrastructure is vital. Research on resilience in partially-trusted environments will lead to new architectures and new technologies to significantly enhance integrity and resilience, including new authentication methods and trust models. Research on empirically-grounded assurances for TIPS will break new ground by providing new interdisciplinary techniques and design principles to underpin infrastructures of the future. Last, but by no means least, by embedding Responsible Innovation into the programme throughout, the CDT ensures that TIPS-at-Scale approaches take a values-based view that considers TIPS across the full lifecycle of digital infrastructures: from conception to design, implementation and deployment through to maintenance, evolution and decommissioning. Such a Responsible Innovation approach will benefit society-at-large.

How will they benefit?

There is a critical need within the UK for a new breed of researchers and future leaders, equipped with a breadth of interdisciplinary skills to tackle TIPS issues at play in future infrastructures and a depth of knowledge, drawing upon interdisciplinary skills, to develop novel and innovative solutions to address TIPS-at-Scale. The CDT will produce a pipeline of such researchers and leaders trained to PhD level. It will build on very strong existing links with organisations such as Vodafone, Google, HP, Airbus , Thales, Symantec, IBM, Babcock, NCC Group, Altran, Wessex Water, Cybernetica and Embecosm, all of which have contributed to co-creation of the CDT and are committed to close engagement with it. Both universities will use their business development teams to further engage with these and other relevant organisations. Major opportunities for generating economic and societal benefits exist with the planned Temple Quarter Enterprise Campus of University of Bristol (due to open in 2021) - with a focus on co-creation of a suite of PG training programmes with industry - and the Bath Innovation Centre. The CDT will also leverage the various impact channels of the three EPSRC-NCSC Research Institutes, the PETRAS Hub and the CREST Centre in which the two Universities play a major role. Both universities already have research and PhD studentships directly funded by industry and agencies such as DSTL, NCSC and GCHQ as well as iCASE awards hence close relationships already exist to maximise impact. The CDT will also organise public debates and social media campaigns to encourage public participation and shaping of TIPS-at-scale discussions and solutions.