The Greatest Weight? Paramilitaries, Deterrent Violence and Feud in Ulster's Borderlands since 1920

This project examines the evolution of the use of violence by paramilitaries in the border region of Ulster since 1920. It will offer an in-depth analysis on continuities, legacies and divergences between generations and on the prospect of renewed conflict.

The project addresses two broad themes:

(i) Deterrent Violence and Inter-generational learning: Did deterrent violence work? How did one generation of paramilitaries influence subsequent generations in terms of the selection of representative victims? Did discrimination in the use of violence significantly differ across generations and/or geographical areas?

(ii) Opportunistic score-settling or feud in the selection of victims: Is there significant evidence that social or economic malice influenced / influences paramilitary violence?

This project will investigate whether templates of 'successful' deterrent violence were handed down to (be re-employed by) successive generations. Within the scholarship of Northern Ireland's 'Troubles', urban violence, such as the conflict in Belfast or L/Derry, has attracted disproportionate scholarly attention. Whereas populations in urban areas often move, patterns of land ownership and residency in rural areas of Ulster are more constant. There is significant potential to improve our understanding of the role of memory, the impact of institutional, social networks and family ties during successive bouts of conflict.

By drawing upon archival records and interview material this project will analyse 'network-based escalation', how social dynamics - patterns of land ownership or economic activity, institutional memberships and informal networks (conflicts therein), urbanisation - affected mobilisation and demobilisation, escalation and de-escalation of paramilitary violence in Ulster's borderlands.

This project will also gauge whether there is significant evidence that petty grudges were grafted onto a wider campaign of political violence, essentially an opportunistic recruitment of a cause and paramilitary organisations to score points in long-standing local feuds with neighbours.

Particular attention will be paid to examining whether individual family history, class or profession were important factors in the selection of victims. This study will also determine whether membership of religious/social institutions - the Gaelic Athletic Association, masonic lodges - were critical to the selection of 'representative victims'. This close analysis will challenge scholarly assertions that paramilitary violence was generally 'indiscriminate'.

Finally, this project will offer a contemporary analysis of whether the memories and justifications of violent inter-communal attacks in the past leaves open the prospect of another period of significant violence in the future. This research is particularly timely, coinciding with the anniversary of the centenary of the partition of Ireland, rising concerns over paramilitary activity in Northern Ireland and the importance of the UK-Irish border for Brexit.

The project will draw on written / oral archives and interviews with individuals with a connection to violent paramilitary groups (members, relatives of members of paramilitary organisations, serving and former police officers/military personnel, victims of paramilitary violence and their families or friends). Extensive fieldwork will be undertaken, particularly in Ulster (on both sides of the border).

Outputs will include two journal articles, including one article co-authored with the Research Assistant, a published manuscript with a university press, an academic-policymaker conference, public lectures (including in ministries/agencies, regional museums and libraries), a dedicated project blog media articles. Senior British and Irish officials who are working to break the cycle of inter-generational violence in Ulster have also indicated that they believe this project has considerable potential public policy impact.

This research will benefit three groups of external stakeholders:

1. Policy makers and Practitioners in London, Belfast and Dublin

Policymakers and senior civil servants in London, Belfast and Dublin have already expressed a desire to engage with this project so as to learn from its findings, improve policy-making. They are particularly pleased that this project places current counter-radicalisation and counter-terrorism policies within a wider historical framework. Successive British governments in the 20th century often appeared resigned to future outbreaks of violence. These were seen as almost inevitable due to the passing on of inter-generational grievances, norms and tactics of violence. If a significant escalation of violence in the future is to be avoided then that cycle must be broken. A close historical understanding of consistencies and developments in paramilitary norms and tactics in the 20th and 21st century - and the level support for acts of violence within their wider communities - has contemporary relevance for policymakers. Senior government officials are concerned about a potential increase in paramilitary violence along the border because of the centenary of the partition of Ireland and the political uncertainty surrounding the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union (Brexit). Hence, senior officials and police officers, including in the Irish/Northern Irish Departments of Justice, the Police Service of Northern Ireland and the Irish police service, An Garda Siochana, have offered to engage with the project, including by making themselves available for interview and participating in the final conference.

2. Think Tanks and Civil Society Organisations
The historical and contemporary subject matter of this research is already of interest to think tanks; evident through engagement with my work to date. Deepening this engagement - with think tanks, such as the Westminster-based Centre for European Reform, and campaign groups such as Justice for the Forgotten/the Pat Finucane Centre - increases their knowledge of violence in rural areas, and better informs their future campaigns. I have previously lectured on, published articles on dissident Irish Republican violence at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) - the UK's oldest and most prestigious security think tank. The historical and contemporary aspects of paramilitary violence in Northern Ireland continue to be relevant to the work of RUSI.

3. The Public
Countering terrorism and extremism is the number one security priority for the UK, according to the government's National Security Strategy. The significant majority of acts of terrorism in the UK take place in Northern Ireland. Preventing the escalation of terrorism requires an in-depth knowledge of the evolution of norms of paramilitary violence and crime, particularly in rural, borders areas. Brexit has attenuated the urgency of understanding drivers of conflict in the border region and errors in state response in the past. By engaging in public lectures, writing opinion pieces and partaking in media programmes I will draw upon my research to improve public awareness of ways to avoid a future increase in violence in Northern Ireland.

The public would benefit from the project through a better knowledge of:

a. The impact of historical grievance in rural Ulster - including the relative importance of macro versus micro, national or local factors - on past and present violence.
b. The historical and current importance of British-Irish counter-terrorist, counter-radicalisation cooperation and public diplomacy along the border.
c. The impact of current narratives and justifications for violence being advanced by paramilitary groups on border communities; the British and Irish governments' efforts to counter such narratives.