Soviet climate science and its intellectual legacies

Lead Research Organisation: University of Birmingham
Department Name: Sch of Geography, Earth & Env Sciences

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change is arguably the most significant threat confronting humankind in the early 21st Century. The intellectual history underpinning our growing insight into the nature and scale of the problem has received marked attention in recent years and yet the specifics of the Soviet Union's contribution in this respect have been marginalised in the English-language literature. This lacuna is significant not only in view of the Soviet Union's (and latterly the Soviet successor states') size and importance for global environmental systems, but also because of the contribution made by Soviet scientists to the international understanding and associated debate in this area post-1945. The Russian Federation remains a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, it has adopted a relatively negative stance with respect to recent and ongoing international efforts to curtail such emissions.

In view of this, the overarching aim of this research project is to explore the development of Soviet climate science post-1945, with a particular focus on the debates concerning humankind's influence on climate systems and on Soviet contributions to related international initiatives. The research will also examine the intellectual legacies of these debates for Russia's positioning in post-1991 climate discussions. As part of this, the research will provide a first detailed account of Soviet engagement with international debate concerning climate change and key organisations such as the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The project will make extensive use of both Russian- and English language archival materials located in Russia, Europe and the USA. In addition, it will generate a series of oral history interviews with scientists involved in Soviet climate science. The contemporary element of the research will be underpinned by interviews with relevant policy and state actors and supported by secondary data analysis.

The project's output will consist of a series of published works and reports in addition to workshops and a project conference to be held in St. Petersburg. In addition, it will produce a block of work for use in Schools concerning Russia and climate change in collaboration with the Royal Geographical Society (RGS). This would take advantage of the introduction of Russia as a required element of study within the Key Stage 3 (11-14) National Curriculum and help to strengthen the coverage of key themes including climate change, biomes, and carbon cycle within KS3 and the new GCSE and A level specifications effective from September 2016. Further outputs will include Master classes for teachers, public lectures outlining the main findings of the research, policy briefings, and materials for the project and RGS websites.

Planned Impact

The project is designed to be of benefit to teachers, educators, school children, the interested general public, and those working on contemporary climate change debates (e.g. policy makers and government officials).

Teachers/Educators:
The project involves the development of materials for the UK's school curriculum at Key Stage 3, GCSE & AS/A Levels. Russia has recently been included within these parts of the curriculum and there is a notable knowledge-gap within the teaching community. Working with the Education and Outdoor Learning division of the Royal Geographical Society (RGS), the project will develop a range of case study materials for use in schools drawing on the findings of the research project as well as the broader expertise of the project team. More specifically, it will advance case study material concerning socio-cultural and political trends linked to climate change as well as broader curriculum themes: biomes (KS3), climate change (KS3), and the carbon cycle (A Level). The latter would include work on Russia's permafrost regions. The materials will be hosted on the RGS website opening it up to a large national audience.

The project team (with the RGS) will put on three Master classes for interested teachers (each catering for approx. 15 people). They will be focussed primarily on KS3. To enhance regional coverage, these will take place at the RGS (London), University of Birmingham and University of Manchester. These classes will be tailored to provide teachers with a framework for delivering material on Russia at KS3.

Two 'Ask the expert' videos will be produced by the team for hosting on the RGS website. And, wall-charts drawing attention to Russia and for use in schools will also be produced in collaboration with the RGS.

School children:
In addition to the aforementioned development of teaching materials, the project will deliver 3 'A' Level Update Master classes utilising the outreach networks of Birmingham, Manchester and the RGS.

Policy makers and government departments:
The project's assessment of the influence of historical debates concerning climate change on Russia's contemporary climate agenda will be of significant interest to policy makers & government departments in the UK, EU & Russia. In order to disseminate this element of the impact agenda, the project team will produce Policy Briefings (to be made available via the project website) and hold a dedicated Workshop at the Royal Society, London. The location of the Workshop is intended to ensure a high visibility for this aspect of the impact agenda. The existing academic-policy networks of the team will also be utilised for this element of the impact agenda.

General Public:
Website - the project Website will provide the interested general public with information concerning the research and its main sources and findings.

Popular Science Article - this article will highlight key elements of the research findings and it will be targeted at a high profile media outlet such as the Geographical Magazine. Shorter pieces will be aimed at online sources such The Conversation (http://theconversation.com/uk).

Public Lectures - the research team will also put on a series of Public Lectures. These will take place in the UK, Norway and Russia and recordings of the lectures will be placed on the project website. In the UK, this element will take advantage of existing public science initiatives such as the ESRC's Festival of Social Science, the outreach initiatives of the Birmingham and Manchester universities, and the networks of the RGS.

Radio - scope for outlining the main findings of the project via regional or national radio will be explored as the project progresses.

Students:
Findings of the research will be utilised by the research team to develop new teaching resources at University level
 
Description The overarching aim of this research project is to explore the development of Soviet climate science post-1945, with a particular focus on the debates concerning humankind's influence on climate systems and on Soviet contributions to related international initiatives. The research will also examine the intellectual legacies of these debates for Russia's positioning in post-1991 climate discussions.

The pandemic impacted elements of core fieldwork and conference /workshop activities in addition to progress of the project linked to delayed analysis of data. This data analysis is ongoing (as of March 2022). Overall, sound progress has been made with respect to the core aim and associated research questions. Fieldwork included work in libraries, archives and interviews with scientists. Current findings include:

1. What were the main debates concerning climate change (including both climatic variability over long time periods as well as discussion around anthropogenic climate change) evident in the Soviet Union post-1945?;
2. To what extent was there agreement within the Soviet academic community over the character and cause of recent shifts in the global climate regime post-1945? Related to this, how influential were anthropogenic understandings of climate change? And how were such understandings advanced during the mid- to late-Soviet period?

The Soviet scientific debate linked to climate change was varied and involved a range of disciplines and research institutes. At a general level, academics such as M.I. Budyko advanced a progressive agenda exploring the consequences for the global climate of both natural and human factors. Budyko and colleagues played a leading role (within and beyond the Soviet Union) in advancing an argument that human economic activity had the capability of causing a global warming trend during the course of the 21st Century. His team made extensive use of palaeoclimatic data in order to establish the potential scale of this warming trend. In contrast, other scientific factions within the Soviet Union placed considerable emphasis on natural factors in determining global climatic trends, and downplayed human causal factors. Outside these broad debates, there was extensive scientific discussion and activity linked to understanding climate at a range of scales, associated trends and factors driving key processes. Some of this activity included ambitious efforts to determine key 'action points' within the global climatic system. Associated debates were advanced via a plethora of disciplinary and inter-disciplinary conferences and workshops in addition to international collaboration, of which more below. Domestic debate encompassed a range of complex debates and voices, whereas the Soviet Union's international voice became increasingly associated with the ideas of Budyo and colleagues noted above.

3. How was climate science organised in the Soviet Union? What was the nature of the Soviet state's influence on these debates and the direction of climate research? How did this influence change during the period 1945-1991?
Climate science was advanced via a range of academic institutions. This included specialised institutes, disciplinary institutes of relevance (e.g. oceanography, geography, mathematical modelling etc), and inter-disciplinary institutes associated with particular regions (e.g. Arctic /Antarctic) and global environmental issues. The state played a powerful shaping role with respect to the activities of these institutions. At the same time, there were areas of intellectual independence and the pursuit of scientific understanding which stood aside of significant state influence. State objectives and areas of interest loomed large at different times. For example, climate science and associated modelling activities became embroiled in broader state strategy linked to the possible consequences of nuclear war during the 1980s.

4. In what ways, and to what extent, did Soviet climatologists engage with the emerging international debate concerning climate change, and specifically anthropogenic climate change? How was Soviet understanding received in the West and vice versa? In what ways did the Soviet debates differ from analogous debates in the West at that time?
5. Following on from this, what was the Soviet Union's relationship with key international organisations such as the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and other United Nations bodies and initiatives (e.g. IPCC etc.)?
As noted above, the Soviet Union was at the forefront of international work linked to global climate change, and individuals such as Budyko were deeply entrenched in the emerging debate during the 1960s and 1970s. USSR-US collaboration in the area of climate science was considered one of the most successful areas of scientific interaction, with regular symposiums and workshops taking place from the 1970s-1990s.There were differences in approach and emphasis. For example, Soviet science tended to emphasise the value of palaeo-climatic understanding over computer modelling when discussing future tends in climate. In contrast, computer modelling was pushed more strongly by the US climate science community. The Soviet Union was thus a key participant in the international scientific response to climate change as evidenced by its central role in the early activities of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) during the late 1980s. More broadly, Soviet scientists played key roles in the World Meteorological Organisation and contributed their energies to linked international scientific activities.

6. In what ways have the scientific debates surrounding climate change that emerged during the mid- to late-Soviet period influenced discussions in the Russian Federation post-1991 and the country's engagement with the Kyoto and post-Kyoto processes?
Russia's political engagement with the Kyoto process has been relatively weak. Economic and political priorities remain paramount in Russia's engagement with the international mechanism. At the same time, reports published by Russia's Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring identify the significant negative impacts of climate change for the country during the course of the 21st Century. This scientific consensus collides with entrenched positions that downplay human influence in favour of natural causal factors.
Exploitation Route -book and related publications
-ongoing dissemination work linked to schools (GCSE and A Level)
-masterclasses for teachers and schools
-policy briefings
Sectors Education,Energy,Environment

 
Description 1.Impact primarily aimed at A Level students, GCSE students and teachers. This has involved: series of Masterclasses for A level students (Birmingham and UK-wide audience); Masterclass for teachers as part of the Royal Geographical Society's formal programme; development of GCSE and A level resources linked to Russia/Arctic/Climate Change - hosted on the website of the Royal Geographical Society. This has a very wide UK (and international) reach. 2.Policy related work There has been growing interest in the policy-related aspects of the work and particularly in view of the COP 26 in 2021. This has included discussion with UK government representatives.
First Year Of Impact 2019
Sector Education
Impact Types Societal,Policy & public services

 
Description Birmingham AHRC IAA User Engagement Fund
Amount £8,000 (GBP)
Organisation University of Birmingham 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 02/2023 
End 12/2023
 
Description Educational resources and training 
Organisation Royal Geographical Society
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution Educational initiative for GCSE /A level curricula. This has consisted of: (i)development of a series of masterclasses and lectures aimed at both school children and teachers; (ii)development of educational resources for teachers.
Collaborator Contribution Development of educational resources and hosting on RGS website for public dissemination. This work also involved WWF. Resources are hosted on the RGS website as part of their Resources for Schools section, and include: (i)Development of podcasts for Schools: https://www.rgs.org/schools/teaching-resources/how-is-climate-and-its-science-governed-in-russia/ (ii)Posters for dissemination to UK Schools - (i)Climate Change and the Russian Arctic; (ii)Thawing Permafrost and Russian Arctic Infrastructure. (iii)Key Stage 3 worksheets, and Key Stage 5 worksheets for A level. All activities are focused on Climate change and the Russian Arctic. The tasks are linked to key areas of the national curriculum.
Impact (i)Public lecture, University of Birmingham, Russia/climate change/geoengineering (Autumn 2018) (ii)Masterclass (Russia/climate change) to secondary school teachers (Spring 2019) (iii)Masterclass for A Level students at the University of Birmingham (attracting students from across the UK) concerning the theme of Russia/climate change/geoengineering (Autumn 2019) (iv)Seminar for A level students at a local Birmingham school around the same theme (Autumn 2019). (v)The research team delivered a masterclass for teachers (Russia/politics/climate change) as part of the Royal Geographical Society programme (February 2020).
Start Year 2017
 
Description 'Explore Geography' event at the University of Birmingham 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk delivered on Russia/climate change as part of the 'Explore Geography' event at the University of Birmingham. The audience consisted primarily of teachers desiring additional insight into areas of thematic interest. The talk was followed by a question and answer session.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Contribution to British Council-funded Workshop 'Sustainable Energy and Climate Change in Russia: policies, discourses and narratives' 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Contribution (talk) to a British Council-funded workshop 'Sustainable Energy and Climate Change in Russia: policies, discourses and narratives', 28th-30th November 2018 at Nottingham Trent University. Co-Organised by NTU and Altai State University, Russia.
It was primarily aimed at early career researchers from both Russia and the UK and also involved representatives from business/industry. The workshop consisted of 30 individuals with a more or less even split between Russia and the UK.
The workshop provided scope to interact with Russian participants from regions beyond Moscow/St Petersburg and facilitated open discussion of politically sensitive issues (climate change) as well as creating a basis for future related activity.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Masterclass for A level students 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Schools
Results and Impact Masterclass delivered as part of the University of Birmingham programme. It consisted of 31 students drawn from across the UK. We explored the theme of: Geoengineering the climate: Russian perspectives. The session was interactive and moved between a series of group tasks.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Masterclass for teachers at the Royal Geographical Society 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Masterclass for teachers - forming part of the Royal Geographical Society's Spring programme: Subject Knowledge Update - Russia, climate and governance.
The masterclass consisted of discussion and formal delivery and was aimed primarily at Key Stage 3. The delivery was comprised of 4 parts: General introduction to Russia (late Soviet/contemporary period), Russia and international climate governance, Russia and climate change consequences, Russia and geoengineering.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Participation in a Masterclass for A Level students 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Schools
Results and Impact Masterclass delivered via Zoom platform for A Level students. The theme was related to Soviet and Russian science linked to climate change.
It also provide contextual information concerning Russia.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/events/masterclasses/geoengineering-the-climate-russian-perspectives.as...
 
Description Public lecture (Birmingham) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Undergraduate students
Results and Impact Delivered a talk as part of the College of Life and Environmental Sciences Lecture Series entitled 'Geo-engineering the climate: lessons from the Soviet Union'. The lecture series is open to the University as well as the general public. It involved a talk followed by a question and answer session.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Russia & Climate Change 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Schools
Results and Impact Presentation for Schools - part of the School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Science's School Lecture Series 2022.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Russia, Climate Change, and Governance 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Schools
Results and Impact Masterclass entitled: Russia, Climate Change, and Governance.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Russia, Climate Change, and Governance 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Schools
Results and Impact Masterclass exploring Russia's approach to the climate change issue. Aimed at Year 12 students. Part of the University of Birmingham's Masterclass series.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Talk to the Geographical Society at King Edward's School, Edgbaston 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Schools
Results and Impact Talk on Russia /politics/ climate issues as part of the King Edward's School Geographical Society. The talk was delivered to a mixed group of A level students and was followed by a question and answer session.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019