Modelling systems for managing bee disease: the epidemiology of European Foul Brood

This project will provide a step-change in our understanding of managed pollinator disease. We will use a combined modelling and molecular approach to investigate the dynamics of European Foul Brood (EFB) as an exemplar of endemic brood disease of honey bee colonies using historic data derived from long-term monitoring of apiaries in England and Wales. We will utilise a program of statistical, analytical and spatially explicit modelling to address the problem. Statistical modelling approaches will be used to identify putative covariates involved in the epidemiology of disease (e.g. land use, weather, management practices) (Newcastle); analytical modelling approaches will be used to investigate the role of transmission processes in determining the epidemiology of disease (Warwick & Bath); and spatially explicit models to investigate spatial spread of disease in the context of investigating the efficacy of different practical control measures (Warwick & Newcastle). The modelling will be parameterised using historic datasets which include the timing and reported incidence of EFB distribution in honey bee apiaries across England and Wales (Fera). Molecular approaches based on microsatellite markers and comparative genomics will be employed to characterise host and parasite diversity (Fera & Bath) for use as additional covariates in the statistical, analytical and spatially explicit models exploring the epidemiology of EFB in relation to host resistance. These data will be used for the testing and validation of the theoretical and spatially explicit models. We (Fera & Bath) have, in collaboration with the Sanger centre in Cambridge, already generated a draft genome sequence for M. plutonius. These data will greatly facilitate the identification of suitable markers for the characterisation of large and representative population samples and will also shed light on the genes responsible for virulence, and how pathogenesis proceeds in the bee host. EFB will provide a paradigm which we can test against other pollinator diseases. For example, developed models will be used to investigate the epidemiology of 14 honey bee diseases collected across 5000 apiaries as part of an ongoing Defra funded monitoring programme (Fera). Dissemination of project results is explicit within the project framework and includes, the production of a list of key end-users, stakeholder workshops, bi-annual project newsletters, reporting in industry literature, a disease management summary document and conference attendance. The modelling analytical and spatially explicit models developed within this project will act as tools to guide strategy in the face of a plethora of disease threats for managed and wild pollinators.

We will use a combined modelling and molecular approach to investigate the dynamics of the honey bee brood disease, European Foulbrood (EFB), as an exemplar of pollinator disease using historic data derived from long-term monitoring of apiaries in England and Wales. We will utilise a statistical, analytical and spatially explicit modelling program to investigate the epidemiology of EFB and to provide practical management solutions for this disease. Statistical modelling approaches will be used to identify putative covariates involved in the epidemiology of disease (e.g. land use, weather, management practices) analytical modelling approaches will be used to investigate the role of transmission processes in determining the epidemiology of disease; and spatially explicit models to investigate spatial spread of disease in the context of investigating the efficacy of different practical control measures. The modelling will be parameterised using historic datasets which include the timing and reported incidence of EFB distribution in honey bee apiaries across England and Wales. Molecular approaches based on microsatellite markers and comparative genomics will be employed to characterise host and parasite diversity for use as additional covariates in the statistical, analytical and spatially explicit models exploring the epidemiology of EFB in relation to host resistance. Molecular data from newly collected samples will be complemented by historical data generated from stored EFB test kits. These data will be used for the testing and validation of the theoretical and spatially explicit models. The models will be further tested on data on incidence of other pathogens present in 5000 apiaries across England and Wales (current Defra study) and a generic framework developed for investigating disease spread from these and exotic pathogens.

This project will have tactical and strategic impacts at three levels. First, models will help to develop sustainable disease management practices that beekeepers can apply with guaranteed distribution to end-users via an existing framework of training and extension at the NBU. Second, this project will improve the regulatory risk based inspection programme for the control of bee pest and diseases across England and Wales by targeting approaches and procedures for disease control and driving future research. Third, this project will inform policy makers, including the Scottish Government, on the necessary strategies required to minimise the impact of endemic diseases and also ensure preparedness for emerging threats to bee health. Overall this project supports the aspirations of the Defra and Welsh Assembly Government's 10 year 'Healthy Bees' plan and will contribute significantly to our understanding of bee disease. Keeling has considerable experience in communicating science to policy makers, having been involved in the past two foot-and-mouth outbreaks (in 2001 and 2007) and planning against potential avian influenza in the poultry industry; both in connection with DEFRA. More recently he has been acting chair of the modelling panel for the governments Scientific Pandemic Influenza groups, and has therefore had to consider how to relate model and model uncertainty to policy makers and health-care planners.