Risks and Opportunities for Sustainable Aquaculture (ROSA)

The aquaculture of suspension-feeding bivalve shellfish (i.e. mussels, oysters, cockles, clams, scallops) is among the fastest-growing of all food-producing sectors, making a direct contribution of more than £500 million to the UK economy , with much greater multiplier effects, all projected to grow significantly in the coming decade. Despite these contributions, we lack a clear national roadmap that describes how to optimise the growth and integration of this sector with diverse activities now taking place in the coastal zone.

Aquaculture may have both positive and negative impacts on the marine environment. In particular any overexploitation of an area may have severe effects on commercial productivity and ecosystem health. Consequently UK aquaculture operations are required to conform to strict controls including an environmental impact assessment. The goal of ROSA is to develop management strategies which will allow sustainable development, balancing the potential benefits (e.g. improved water quality, mitigation of biodiversity loss, economic activity) with the risks (e.g. loss of habitat due to both siting of farms and seed collection). Such knowledge is vital for successful promotion, societal acceptance and development of the industry.

A key factor for successful aquaculture is the suitability of farmed species. This depends upon a number of factors including growth rate, cost of production, market price, site location and resistance to disease. Assessing these issues is complicated, because shellfish are highly responsive to fluctuations in temperature, salinity, food availability and food composition, as frequently occur in near-shore environments where most aquaculture takes place. These responses not only affect shellfish population growth, but also the capacity of each host ecosystem within which aquaculture is situated.

As environmental dynamics alter, for example due to climate change, the risks and opportunities for aquaculture are almost certain to change. As a result, the species farmed and associated culture practice may also have to change. Consequently, we must consider the potential risks and benefits of environmental change; addressing direct impacts such as increasing temperature, storminess, exposure to wind and waves, plus frequency of harmful algal bloom events. It is also important to identify locations and culture practices that minimise impacts at local and regional scales. Only by modelling how suspension-feeding shellfish interact with ecosystem processes, can environmental impacts of and capacities for culture be realistically assessed. We propose to enable such modelling within a bespoke and portable desktop-based model tool on behalf of the UK aquaculture sector. This will draw upon the best available science and tools, realising the potential of this integrated approach to resolve temporal and spatial variations within a GIS decision support platform tailored according to user requirements. For the first time, at scales ranging from individual farms to regional waters, this will enable the projection of likely risks resulting from interrelations between habitat suitability and culture practise. To ensure immediate applied relevance, the tool will be developed in direct consultation with the aquaculture industry and its regulators.

The goal of ROSA is to realise, in a single stakeholder-friendly tool, the capability for dynamic analyses, in space and time, of the risks and opportunities for sustainable aquaculture, at varying scales from farm to regional. Proven, mature and well-tested numerical models: the Finite-Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM), the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM) and ShellSIM will be coupled into an Integrated Marine System & Aquaculture Model. Simulations of the present day conditions will be made to demonstrate the ability of the model system to reproduce the observed mean state and variability (on seasonal timescales) of key environmental variables, including the ability to simulate observed production for present day UK shellfish aquaculture. Case study simulations will be undertaken to explore the impacts of climate change and hydrodynamic connectivity on both the aquaculture industry and the environment within which it operates. The existing ShellGIS system will be adapted for the UK industry, tailoring user interfaces to address relevant UK questions and scenarios to be agreed collaboratively with stakeholders. The resulting desktop tool will undergo testing by expert and non-expert users, and their recommendations implemented as appropriate and feasible. We will produce maps of present and future states. These will include maps of shellfish carrying capacities, with time to market and profitability, according to chosen culture practise scenarios. We will synthesise the results for peer review publication and stakeholder reports. Finally, in collaboration with stakeholders, we will develop a roadmap for the further development of decision support tools for sustainable aquaculture in the UK.

Aquaculture is a growing sector which has the potential to match the shortfall between supply and demand for marine protein whilst reducing pressure on wild fisheries. This project has the potential to provide significant and extensive impacts and benefits targeting a wide range of stakeholders including farmers, decision makers, industry regulators and the wider public.

Aquaculture industry, licencing and management: Knowledge gained will allow a more holistic view of UK shellfish aquaculture at both local and regional scales, both in the present and in future, assessing best practise, profitability and ecological carrying capacity for shellfish culture, together with implications for water quality and Good Environmental Status (GES). This will include insight into the regional scale connectivity between aquaculture systems, with implications for pathogen transfer. Combining this information in a tailored desktop GIS system will allow growers, policymakers, environmental regulators, environmental managers and wider society to better assess the risks and opportunities for a sustainable industry.

Developing and implementing policy: ROSA will deliver a model based whole ecosystem synthesis, towards improving marine management through the refinement of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive's (MSFD) Good Environmental Status (GES) descriptors and targets. ROSA will also provide relevant information for fisheries, aquaculture, energy provision, marine planning, licensing and conservation aspects under initiatives such as the Marine and Coastal Access Act, Marine (Scotland) Act, Common Fisheries Policy and the OSPAR Joint Assessment and Monitoring Programme.

Wider society: ShellGIS and its associated approach will facilitate the development of sustainable aquaculture; with positive effects on social, financial, human and physical capitals, generating the food, industrial products and employment that help to maintain community structure in wider society.

.