Resilience of the UK food system to Global Shocks (RUGS)

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The ability of the global food systems to rebound from shocks and in particular the resilience of the UK food system is the focus of this project. The global food system is changing driven by increasing demand for agricultural commodities due to rising population and dietary changes, e.g. greater meat consumption, and demand for bioenergy feedstock. A progressively interconnected global food system, coupled with increasingly binding environmental constraints and growing demands, creates systemic risks to global shocks, i.e. reduces resilience. Events that shock supply or demand in one or more regions can affect the global market, and impact consumers and producers around the world.

The project will, in collaboration with stakeholders, define a diverse set of shocks scenarios, and then simulate the impact of these using a novel model of the global food system. Compared to previous studies of the agricultural system this project will loosen the equilibrium market assumptions to better capture observed behaviours (e.g. non-equilibrium markets and governmental response behaviour), and will include a more accurate representation of spatial factors based on biophysical properties of yield, including the response to production intensification (i.e. fertilisation and irrigation). The impact of uncertainty will be assessed using a probabilistic approach (i.e. Monte Carlo). These advances will provide new insights into the dynamics of agricultural land use change, and the resilience of the UK food system.

The potential responses and actions applicable to industry, supply chain stakeholder, and policymakers, to increase the resilience of the UK food system will be considered, based on the model results. The project will also examine the effect of market power (i.e. the lack of supply chain competition), and the policy and regulatory environment in mitigating or increasing the UK food system's resilience.

The project deliverables will provide impact and societal benefits by understanding UK food system vulnerability to global shocks, and identifying actions and polices that can be implemented to increase resilience. Lack of resilience in the food system is likely to increase food costs and compromise the activities of food producers in the UK supply chain, and ultimately lead to increasing food insecurity. Volatility in food prices or supply caused by global shocks can have negative outcomes for the UK food supply chain, e.g. changes in global market prices can impact the viability of sectors and force rapid changes in food production and processing. This is currently occurring in the UK dairy sector, triggered by lower commodity prices. The changes have knock-on effects from producers and processors, through to the economies of local communities. High food prices can also damage society, as seen in the 2007/08 price spike, by increasing the share of incomes required to purchase food, or influencing consumption patterns towards less healthy diets, i.e. away from fresh produce, particularly in lower income households. The project therefore aims to deliver societal impact by facilitating the increase in the UK food systems resilience, and by collaborating with stakeholders to identify interventions that can achieve this outcome. Policies and private sector actions will be identified to increase resilience either by reducing the volatility experienced by the UK food system to global shocks (i.e. mitigation actions), or alternatively by limiting the negative consequences from the implied volatility (i.e. adaptation). Work package deliverables will initially define shock storylines that have the potential to impact the UK food system, and will then use a model simulation to quantify the outcomes, and therefore the severity of the impacts from these shocks, to better understand the vulnerabilities.

To achieve the desired outcomes stakeholder engagement is embedded into the design of the overall project. A stakeholder group will take an integral role of in co-evolving knowledge over the life of the project, as well as helping to define and adjust the research. The stakeholders will be selected to guarantee a balanced composition of members between different groups with an interest and relevance for UK food system. This ensures that stakeholders across public sector, private supply chain, and non-governmental organisations will be involved. The stakeholders will therefore be ideally placed to benefit from and apply the lessons from the research, and provide a strong and clear pathway to impact, in policy and commercial spheres, as well as the third sector. Stakeholders that would be relevant to the aims and outcomes of the project include policymakers (e.g. DEFRA, FSA, Scottish Government, DECC, DTI, BIS), agricultural producers (e.g. NFU, NFUS), environmental organisations (e.g. CCC, WWF), consumer groups (e.g. UK Food Group), food banks (e.g. Trussell Trust), retailers (e.g. Tesco, M&S), food processors (e.g. Arla, Müller Wiseman), energy companies (e.g. E.ON), insurers (e.g. Lloyds), banking and finance (e.g. Black Rock, RBS), and international bodies (e.g. FAO, IPCC).