PIGSustain: Predicting the Impacts of Intensification and Future Changes on UK Pig Industry Resilience

The global human population is expected to rise from 7.2 billion in 2015 to 9.6 billion by the middle of this century. At the same time, the average amount of meat each person consumes per year is steadily increasing, with global meat consumption predicted to double within the same time frame. In order to be able to feed this growing population, intensification of our agricultural systems will be necessary. However, while further intensification in agriculture might enable the industry to fulfill future meat demand, the sustainability of the industry as it currently stands is threatened by numerous external factors, such as competition for depleting natural resources, climate change, disease, and environmental concerns for which recent intensification of livestock production is, at least, partially responsible.At present, the situation is such that we do not have a continuous, objective and quantified understanding of the health and welfare of our national pig herd, and equally, we have no objective and quantified predictions of how this will be impacted by future changes to the industry through intensification, climate change, changes in global production and trade, and in consumer demand. Equally, we are unable to predict how resilient the UK pig industry is as a whole, and whether and how it will be able to remain stable in the face of such changes.

This project will use a systems approach in order to understand how sustainable intensification and predicted climate changes are expected to impact on the pig industry as a whole - we will produce models to predict the impacts of intensification on the health, disease and welfare of the animals: how consumption patterns and retail prices are likely to be affected, how these changes will impact farmers, and how these in turn will impact on the health and welfare of the animals.

We will collect data from a wide range of sources in order to assess how health and welfare are linked with climate, geography and other factors. Detailed, real-time measures of health and welfare on-farm are seriously lacking and a system for quickly, efficiently and accurately collecting and recording health and welfare measures on a continuous basis on-farm is urgently needed. We will develop a cutting-edge, automated computer vision system capable of collecting real-time information on health, welfare and productivity on-farm, which will provide us with a detailed understanding of how on-farm health and welfare measures match up against measures collected at the slaughterhouse. This system will be developed with a view to making it commercially available for continuous monitoring of pigs 24/7, with outputs for vets and farmers to understand the changes that have taken place within pens over a period of time. This system has been identified by representatives of the pig industry and pig vets as something which is sorely needed to supplement vet consults, in order to improve welfare management and auditing.

We will collect retail data and consumer pattern and attitudes data to understand the socio- and geographical demographics underlying consumer behaviour. We will investigate how agricultural economics are affected by health and welfare issues, and develop predictive models of how these components of the pig industry system interact. We will investigate the links between disease prevalence and agricultural economics, market stability, and consumer choices. Using this information, we will develop a systems model to explain how each component is related to, and has the potential to influence each other. Using alternative future scenarios and predicted future trends for the different components of the pig industry within the system model, we will determine how resilient the UK pig industry is, and what factors are critical for the maintenance of future stability.

This project will use a systems approach to understand how intensification and predicted changes in climate, global production and trade, and consumer demand are expected to impact on the UK pig industry. We will produce models to predict the impacts of intensification on the health, welfare and productivity of the animals; how consumption patterns and retail prices are likely to be affected; how these changes will impact farmers; and how these in turn will impact on the health and welfare of the animals. We will collect data from a wide range of sources to analyse the relationship between disease and welfare problems with climate, geography and other factors. We will develop a cutting-edge, automated machine vision system to collect continuous, real-time information about health, welfare and productivity on-farm and we will assess its predictive capacity for measures collected at the slaughterhouse. By collecting accounting data on-farm, we will be able to directly assess the impacts of health and welfare problems on-farm.

We will collect retail, consumer pattern and attitudes data to understand the socio- and geographical demographics underlying consumer behaviour. We will look into how agricultural economics are affected by health and welfare issues, and develop predictive models of how these components of the pig industry system interact. We will investigate the links between disease prevalence and agricultural economics, market stability, and consumer choices.

Using all this information, we will take develop a systems model to understand the pig industry, with a view to predicting the impacts of intensification, changes in climate, trade, feed prices and consumer demand, on health, welfare and production, and ultimately, to assess the resilience and sustainability of the UK pig industry as a whole.

The largest meat industry internationally is the pork industry; approximately 37% (110 million metric tonnes, mmt) of all meat consumed is pork worldwide. There are 847.8 million pigs produced globally per annum, and this number is increasing each year. The EU is a significant contributer to the global pork industry, with almost 18% of the world's pork produced here. As the human population continues to grow and there is simultaneous trend for increasing meat consumption per person - predicted per capita consumption of pork alone is predicted to double by 2050 - the future for the pig industry will inevitably require sustainable intensification. However, at present, the situation is such that we do not have a continuous, objective and quantified understanding of the health and welfare of our national pig herd, and equally, we have no objective and quantified predictions of how this will be impacted by future changes to the industry through intensification and climate change. We cannot currently safe-guard the future of the UK pig industry against the impacts of change. This programme of research will use a multi-disciplinary, integrated systems approach to understanding the resilience of the UK pig industry as it has been, is currently, and to project how it will be affected by changes relating to intensification, climate, global production and trade, and consumer demand in the future. This work will be conducted in collaboration with representatives across the UK pig industry, including the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, which has both producer and public engagement expertise, and large-scale producers (Elsham Lincs Ltd and Yorkwold Pigpro, both of which are highly active in the producer community), national food standards assurance schemes (Red Tractor) which are closely linked in to every major retailer and a vast majority of producers nationwide, pig veterinarians including key members of the Pig Vet Society board, Evidence Based Veterinary Consultancy (EBVC - specialist veterinary consultancy, helping to develop profitable and sustainable agricultural supply chains), and government executive agencies for animal health (APHA) in order to maximise the utility and relevance, and ultimately the impact of this research within the pig industry and with national and international policy-makers. We will link up with EU-FP7 project PROHEALTH (on which, co-PI Bennett is a partner; Deputy project director Prof Sandra Edwards, U. Newcastle, has agreed to sit on the Project Steering Committee for the PIGSustain project) and we will benefit from their EU-level expertise, outputs and network.

The research will also be of benefit to NGOs working in animal welfare, food security and climate change, as our data will provide a useful resource for the formulation of their policies and campaigns. For the wider public, a sustainable pig industry is important for consumers to continue to benefit from high quality food that is readily available at an affordable price. Understanding the potential blocks to this through our research will help to highlight potential mitigation strategies to ensure a the industry is stable in the face of change. We will produce a short, high quality film to explain the research project to industry, policy makers, NGOs, and the wider public. This will be an opportunity to educate as well as inform viewers about the issues around intensification of agriculture, climate change, and animal health and welfare, and how it could potentially impact on them in future. This film will be produced early in the project and will be placed on the project website and YouTube, promoted on social media and sent to key stakeholders to increase awareness and participation in the study from the outset.

Post-doctoral training is a key component of this project, as it represents our commitment to train a new generation of cross-disciplinary researchers. Please see Academic Beneficiaries for details.