COincident Probabilistic climate change weather data for a Sustainable built Environment (COPSE)

Lead Research Organisation: Northumbria University
Department Name: Fac of Engineering and Environment


This project will develop sound methods for future climate change data for building designers to use for new buildings and refurbishments, most of which will last to the end of this century. The outputs will primarily be: academic papers and a draft for a Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers, CIBSE, Technical Memorandum, suitable for practising designers; case studies to validate the new weather data design methodology and assess the potential adaptation of new and refurbished buildings to reduce carbon emissions. This TM will also be useful for CIBSE to use to determine a consistent future weather design methodology and future data for its new Design Guide, which is the fundamental document used by Building Services Engineers for designing buildings and their services. It is a supporting document for the Government's Building Regulations. The basis for this CIBSE data will be the new UK Climate Impacts Programme, UKCIP, future scenarios due in 2008, UKCIP08, with probabilities of various future weather outcomes for this century.To ensure that the new, probabilistic outputs will be useful to professionals, and to reflect best practice in design, there will be strong stakeholder involvement through the formation of a Stakeholders Group, via CIBSE, (Weather Task Force and collaborating consultancies), the Manchester-led EPSRC SCORCHIO project, (looking at urban heat island and climate change vulnerability, with contacts to UKCIP and the Tyndall Centre), architects and software houses. Policy makers will be reached via the Stakeholder Group Corresponding Members linked to the Department for Communities and Local Government and their contractors, including BRE. Risk levels will be assessed and data provided to enable designers to use the data with confidence. This bottom-up approach will serve to inform policy makers of what can be achieved practically. In addition there will be numerous case studies for validating the new methodology andTo provide this consistency, a novel method will be developed which will allow UKCIP08 scenarios and probabilistic weather data to be the basis of design which takes into account coincident weather parameters, e.g. solar radiation, air temperature, wind speed and direction. It is known that solar and air temperature have profound and sometimes differing influences on the comfort and carbon emissions of the building and that design values in the Guide are not necessarily coincident. Thus the hottest summer (or summer day) may well not be the sunniest summer (or day). New building design indices will be developed, with the aid of the current building designs contributed by members of the Stakeholder Group and collaborators. Solar radiation data, not covered in detail in the HadRM3 and UKCIP02 models, will be developed to satisfy designers' requirements. Likewise wind data, although the confidence level will be lower. It will be crucial to include wind data since wind drives natural ventilation. Rainfall duration and quantity are also important in the building design process because of drainage and rain penetration damage and designers' requirements will again be reviewed.Urban heat island effects, (where the urban areas are often hotter than the nearby rural areas), briefly mentioned in the present Guide, will be developed from the EPSRC SCORCHIO work to provide more realistic urban weather data. Local modification or downscaling will also be applied to generate data for other sites in the UK. This will enable the new Guide to cover more than the current 14 sites for which data were developed by Manchester for CIBSE


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Description A new set of tools for deriving statistically significant weather data files for use in building energy design and simulation has been developed. The tools draw from raw weather data files generated using the UKCP09 Projections and result in either a Test Reference Year (for energy simulation) or a Design Reference Year (for energy system design). The tools have been developed using Matlab coding and are freely available to other users.
Exploitation Route Other users are able to use our output to generate TRY or DRY weather files for building design and simulation at timelines through to 2080 and for a variety of carbon emission scenarios.
Sectors Construction,Energy

Description As a result of the findings of this work together with other research reported in the new CIBSE (*) Applications Manual 11 'Building Performance Modelling' (published in 2016), the PI has been asked by the CIBSE (*) to help them develop methods for the extraction of high resolution weather data. The new high resolution weather data will be used for temporal modelling of embedded urban renewable energy systems such as solar PV, solar-thermal, urban wind energy. The new weather data tool will draw from results of the COPSE project reported here. CIBSE (*) has contracted with Northumbria University to sponsor a PhD studentship to investigate the development of a new tool for this purpose. Research will commence on this at the beginning of April 2017 and is expected to be concluded in March 2020. *Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers
Sector Construction,Energy
Impact Types Policy & public services