Multi-scale Energy Systems Modelling Encompassing Renewable, Intermittent, Stored Energy and Carbon Capture and Storage (MESMERISE-CCS)

The UK needs carbon capture and storage (CCS) as part of its energy mix to minimise the cost of decarbonising our economy. CCS will have to fit into an electricity market that is increasingly dominated by inflexible nuclear and uncontrollable wind. It will therefore be vital that the CCS plants we develop are sufficiently flexible to interact with this new system, and balance the rapid start and cycling abilities with the lowest possible capital and operating costs. Flexible CCS will be characterised by the ability to simultaneously interact with the complex electricity system of the future and also the downstream CO2 transport and storage system. Rather than burning fuel purely in response to electricity price, CCS operators will also have to factor in waste storage costs, which will suffer similar complexity due to constraints on CO2 transport and injection rates and gas composition.

This project will identify the flexibility bottlenecks in the CCS chain and also promising options for the development of resilient CCS systems. These models will internally calculate CCS plant load factors and electricity wholesale prices, thereby enabling a rigorous, technologically- and temporally-explicit, whole systems analysis. Feedback from CO2 storage operations will exert an as-yet unknown impact on the feasible operating space of the decarbonised power plant. We will explicitly quantify the interactions between the above- and below-ground links in the CCS chain. Sample CCS chains developed will be assessed in more detail concerning their broader role in the UK energy system. The implications of technological improvements in critical technologies such as advanced sorbents, improved air separation technologies and the availability of waste heat will also be considered.

On a larger scale, the inter-operation of sample UK-specific CCS networks with intermittent renewable energy generation will be examined from an internally consistent whole-systems perspective. The internalisation of exogenous boundary conditions (e.g., the role of renewable energy and CCS plant load factors) and the development of multi-source-to-sink CCS system models will enable the most accurate assessment to date of how CCS will fit into the UK energy system and would interact with other energy vectors. The linking of CCS and renewable energy generation system models will allow us to examine the opportunities and impacts associated with the co-deployment of renewable energy and CCS in the UK. This will feed into a wider policy analysis that will examine the dynamics of changing system infrastructure at intermediate time periods between now and 2050.

Dissemination of research output will be continuous over the duration of the project. We will engage with the academic community via publication in the international peer reviewed scientific literature and presenting at selected conferences. Owing to the topical nature of this research, public engagement is a priority for us. We plan on creating and managing a project webpage will provide real time insight into project progress and intermediate conclusions and results. All research papers and presentations will be available from this site. Similarly, we will conduct a continuous horizon scanning activity as part of this project. Our website will be continuously updated with a view to providing an understanding of where our research fits in the broader UK and international research arena.

This work will be carried out via the development and integration of detailed mathematical models of each link in the CCS chain. We have engaged with a leading UK-based software development company with whom we will work to make these models available to the academic and broader stakeholder community. Further, a version of the modelling tools suitable for use by the general public will also be prepared. It is expected that this tool will be analogous in form and functionality to the DECC 2050 Calculator.

It is well accepted that CCS will be a key part to achieving our climate targets whilst simultaneously ensuring security of electricity supply. Therefore, research work aimed at reducing the cost-increase associated with low carbon electricity will directly benefit a wide range of beneficiaries.

The following groups will benefit from this research:

1. The UK economy (including UK households) which will benefit from a quantitative analysis of the least-cost pathways to providing a low carbon energy future from a variety of power generation sources. Ultimately, this has the potential to reduce electricity bills by advancing understanding.
2. The CO2 capture and systems industry (mainly power, gas processing and oil and gas producers) will benefit from understanding real world constraints on CCS systems operation and optimization.
3. Government and regulators who require objective information about technology pathways and their impact on energy supply, CO2 emissions and the economy.
4. The UK CCS Research Centre funded by the EPSRC who will use the data, tools and training for further input into the strategic directions for academic CCS research.
5. The public who require an understanding of where CCS fits in the context of the whole energy system, including a clear picture of its costs and benefits compared with alternative energy technology pathways.

Further CCS is a major green growth opportunity for the UK; by the late 2020s, CCS-related UK-based economic activity is expected to be in the region of £3-6.5 billion/year and is expected to create up to 100,000 highly skilled UK based jobs. This work will directly feed into this activity. Through the CCS Commercialisation Competition, the UK Government has recognised the importance of expediting the deployment of CCS. There is a relatively small window of opportunity for the science and translation community to build on the UK's head start in this area.

Both the APGTF and DECC CCS roadmaps identified whole-systems research and development as one of the key short term (5-10 years) needs with an emphasis on obtaining an understanding of system flexibility to cope with changes in demand and the ability of decarbonised power plants to interact with both the energy market and the CO2 transport and storage system. Additionally, the LCIG CCS TINA identified whole-systems optimisation as the enabler of all value identified with UK CCS. This project lies at the forefront of cross-cutting research into the whole-systems flexibility of CCS. Thus it is of key strategic importance to the future development of the emerging UK CCS industry.

This research team leads the academic research block for the White Rose CCS project and this proposal will compliment that activity. This work builds on previous RCUK investments in low carbon energy systems in general and CCS in particular and is complementary to several other on-going research efforts in the area of low carbon energy systems across in addition to leveraging the outcomes of other research work. This serves to highlight the cross-cutting and trans-disciplinary nature of this work; in addition to Carbon Capture and Storage, we complement research in the Energy Storage and Whole Energy Systems research areas. In this way we will boost the health of UK energy systems research areas by linking several research areas. To our knowledge, this is the first time that an interdisciplinary project of this kind has been proposed; thus ensuring the UK's lead in this key emerging industry.