GCRF_NF359: Modelling the exposure risk tradeoff between public transit and private paratransit for transport decision making in the era of Covid19
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Leeds
Department Name: Institute for Transport Studies
Abstract
A safe and functioning transport system is vital to maintain economic activities in countries, developing or not. In most developing countries, the transport system is characterised by a crowded bus transit and micro-transit systems, supplemented by paratransits such as motorcycle taxis and autorickshaws. The paratransit sector is also a large source of employment (e.g. 3 Million motorcycle taxis in Nigeria, 300,000 in Kampala, Uganda, 104,000 in Dhaka, Bangladesh). The COVID19 pandemic has massively disrupted the transport sector and economic activities. In the project countries, motorcycle-based paratransits are banned from operating in order to maintain safe distances. In addition to disrupting travel and affecting the primarily poor users (prices in other modes have gone up), this has also resulted in massive unemployment and poverty among the drivers. However, there are also serious concerns about the safety of passengers in crowded buses or micro-transit vehicles, where maintaining appropriate distances are nearly impossible, and paratransits can be a viable alternative. The risks of virus exposure is also high in high occupancy vehicles due to the closed nature of the vehicles compared to the open nature of motorcycles and semi-open nature of autorickshaws. It may also be possible to mitigate risks in paratransits through barriers or shields. However, there are no studies investigating the relative risks of these modes, with or without the mitigation measures.
The project aims to model the exposure risk in different types of transport modes in order to allow policymakers to make an evidence-based optimum decision. The physics-based computer modelling will be accompanied by user surveys to understand their travel pattern, preferences and acceptance of various mitigation measures (such as shields designed using the models). Given the prevalence of micro-and paratransits in many other DAC countries, the results will be useful for other similar DAC countries too.
The project aims to model the exposure risk in different types of transport modes in order to allow policymakers to make an evidence-based optimum decision. The physics-based computer modelling will be accompanied by user surveys to understand their travel pattern, preferences and acceptance of various mitigation measures (such as shields designed using the models). Given the prevalence of micro-and paratransits in many other DAC countries, the results will be useful for other similar DAC countries too.
Publications
Batool Z
(2024)
The effects of COVID19 on public and paratransit drivers in developing countries: A case study of Bangladesh and Nigeria
in Journal of Transport & Health
Hetherington R
(2021)
Exposure risk analysis of COVID-19 for a ride-sharing motorbike taxi.
in Physics of fluids (Woodbury, N.Y. : 1994)
Bwambale A
(2023)
Willingness to pay for COVID-19 mitigation measures in public transport and paratransit in low-income countries.
in Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice
Description | Please see this: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357636347_Modelling_the_exposure_risk_trade-off_between_public_transit_and_private_paratransit_for_transport_decision_making_in_the_era_of_COVID-19_Summary_Findings |
Exploitation Route | Opportunities to compare risks in other transport modes using CFD, building on our approach. |
Sectors | Healthcare Transport |
URL | https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357636347_Modelling_the_exposure_risk_trade-off_between_public_transit_and_private_paratransit_for_transport_decision_making_in_the_era_of_COVID-19_Summary_Findings |
Description | Several news media picked up the findings from the first journal paper. Their use in policymaking will likely take a bit longer. |
First Year Of Impact | 2022 |
Sector | Other |
Impact Types | Policy & public services |
Description | COVID19-transport risk tradeoff |
Organisation | Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology |
Country | Bangladesh |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Providing intellectual support to understanding travel behaviour during covid19 and identifying low-risk transport modes during covid19. Bringing in CFD modelling expertise. |
Collaborator Contribution | Conduct stakeholder workshops in and providing perspectives from their own country, conduct travel surveys in own country. Conduct CFD modelling of local transport modes. |
Impact | Ongoing. Partner conducted stakeholder workshop. An international symposium of transport and covid19 was organised in one partner university (Makerere) and online. |
Start Year | 2020 |
Description | COVID19-transport risk tradeoff |
Organisation | Federal University of Technology Owerri |
Country | Nigeria |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Providing intellectual support to understanding travel behaviour during covid19 and identifying low-risk transport modes during covid19. Bringing in CFD modelling expertise. |
Collaborator Contribution | Conduct stakeholder workshops in and providing perspectives from their own country, conduct travel surveys in own country. Conduct CFD modelling of local transport modes. |
Impact | Ongoing. Partner conducted stakeholder workshop. An international symposium of transport and covid19 was organised in one partner university (Makerere) and online. |
Start Year | 2020 |
Description | COVID19-transport risk tradeoff |
Organisation | Makerere University |
Country | Uganda |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Providing intellectual support to understanding travel behaviour during covid19 and identifying low-risk transport modes during covid19. Bringing in CFD modelling expertise. |
Collaborator Contribution | Conduct stakeholder workshops in and providing perspectives from their own country, conduct travel surveys in own country. Conduct CFD modelling of local transport modes. |
Impact | Ongoing. Partner conducted stakeholder workshop. An international symposium of transport and covid19 was organised in one partner university (Makerere) and online. |
Start Year | 2020 |
Description | COVID19-transport risk tradeoff |
Organisation | University of Asia Pacific |
Country | Bangladesh |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Providing intellectual support to understanding travel behaviour during covid19 and identifying low-risk transport modes during covid19. Bringing in CFD modelling expertise. |
Collaborator Contribution | Conduct stakeholder workshops in and providing perspectives from their own country, conduct travel surveys in own country. Conduct CFD modelling of local transport modes. |
Impact | Ongoing. Partner conducted stakeholder workshop. An international symposium of transport and covid19 was organised in one partner university (Makerere) and online. |
Start Year | 2020 |
Description | A blog article based on the journal paper |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | A blog article presenting the findings of the journal paper for general audience |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://medium.com/@maik3141/can-plastic-shields-between-riders-reduce-covid-19-exposure-in-motorcyc... |
Description | A video on youtube |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | A video disseminating some of our findings for general members of public. Video was viewed 185 times so far. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QK6UrKaGqQs |
Description | International symposium on transport and COVID19 in low and middle income countries |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | We have converted our dissemination workshop to an international event with academics and stakeholders from different LMICs. The symposium had the morning session focused on dissemination from our project, and two afternoon sessions with talks from international academics speaking about transport and covid19 in LMICs. Around 140 online registrations. 30 in person attendees. The symposium was done in a hybrid format with both online and face to face participants (in Kampala). Event detail here: https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/symposium-on-transport-and-covid19-in-low-and-middle-income-countries-tickets-257883575717# |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/symposium-on-transport-and-covid19-in-low-and-middle-income-countries... |
Description | Press release of journal paper |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | We issued a press release following the publication of the Physics of Fluids paper. It was covered in several media outlets. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/935303 |
Description | Stakeholder workshops |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | The stakeholder workshops were held in all three partner countries - Bangladesh, Uganda and Nigeria. Around 80 participants attended in total. The objective was to introduce our project, get feedback from the stakeholders about any need for modifying project aims and methods, get their views about what is important for the transport related covid19 research in developing countries, discuss potential further collaboration. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020,2021 |