Water System Resilience (ARCC-Water)
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Leeds
Department Name: School of Earth and Environment
Abstract
Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.
People |
ORCID iD |
| Suraje Dessai (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
Dessai S
(2013)
Introduction to the Special Issue on "Adaptation and Resilience of Water Systems to an Uncertain Changing Climate"
in Water Resources Management
Ekström M
(2013)
Examination of climate risk using a modified uncertainty matrix framework-Applications in the water sector
in Global Environmental Change
Hoang L
(2017)
Water resource vulnerability: simulation and optimisation models
in Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Engineering Sustainability
Hoang, L
(2012)
Uncertainty analysis of an integrated water system in southern England: exploring physical and socio-economic uncertainties
in Proceeding of the 6th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, Leipzig, Germany
Hoang,L
(2012)
Robust adaptation for water resource systems: a case study of drought planning under deep uncertainty
in Proceeding of the 10th International Conference on Hydroinformatics, Hamburg, Germany
Korteling B
(2012)
Using Information-Gap Decision Theory for Water Resources Planning Under Severe Uncertainty
in Water Resources Management
Korteling B
(2013)
Erratum to: Using Information-Gap Decision Theory for Water Resources Planning Under Severe Uncertainty
in Water Resources Management
Matrosov E
(2012)
Selecting Portfolios of Water Supply and Demand Management Strategies Under Uncertainty-Contrasting Economic Optimisation and 'Robust Decision Making' Approaches
in Water Resources Management
Pearce R
(2012)
Re-Framing Environmental Social Science Research for Sustainable Water Management in a Changing Climate
in Water Resources Management
| Description | We have developed new and improved research methods to enable long-term water resources planning under deep uncertainty. The future is inherently uncertain because of climate, socio-economic and regulatory changes. Our research involved the integration of a cascade of uncertainty on water resource planning including: climate uncertainty, climate post-processing uncertainty, hydrological uncertainty, water resource model uncertainty and demand uncertainty. The research was applied to a water resource zone in Sussex in collaboration with Southern Water and Atkins. We found that post-processing uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty until the 2030s, but by the 2050s demand and socio-economic uncertainty becomes the dominant uncertainty. Despite the large climate post-processing uncertainty, the main hotspots of water deficits remains similar across the climate products and are driven by network bottlenecks and the continually high dependence of the system on water sources around the Hardham area. The research also indicates that inter-regional transfers might not be as reliable as assumed. |
| Exploitation Route | The findings and research methods need to be digested, embraced and adjusted by water regulators (e.g., the Environment Agency and Ofwat) and other stakeholders (water companies, consultancies, etc.). These types of methods need to be applied more widely (e.g., in other sectors) to assess their wider utility for long-term planning under deep uncertainty. |
| Sectors | Environment,Other |
| URL | http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5567/1/PhDThesis_LanNHoang2013.pdf |
| Description | Southern Water and Atkins have used our findings to inform the company's Water Resources Management Plan 2015-40. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2013 |
| Sector | Environment,Other |
| Impact Types | Societal,Economic |
| Description | Lead Author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Firth Assessment Report (AR5) |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| URL | http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/ |
| Description | Member of the IPCC's Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| URL | http://www.ipcc.ch/activities/activities.shtml#tabs-4 |
| Description | Member of the UKCP09 (formerly known as UKCIP08) User Panel |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| URL | http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/ |
| Description | How do UK streamflow projections compare with recent observations? |
| Amount | £3,000 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | EPSRC 03/10 |
| Organisation | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 08/2010 |
| End | 03/2011 |
| Description | Public perceptions of drought and climate change in Southern England |
| Amount | £48,120 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | ES/G041040/1 |
| Organisation | Economic and Social Research Council |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 10/2009 |
| End | 09/2012 |
| Description | University of Exeter Climate Change and Sustainable Futures studentship |
| Amount | £50,000 (GBP) |
| Organisation | University of Exeter |
| Department | Climate Change and Sustainable Futures |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 01/2010 |
| End | 12/2013 |
| Title | Robust decision analysis |
| Description | The tool/framework provides an integrated approach to assess the impacts of climate change uncertainty on adaptation decisions via the use of robust simulation and optimisation combining with adaptation pathway assessment. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | The tool has been applied to the research project to demonstrate the dominant role of climate change products on the final adaptation decisions. |
| Title | Robust decision analysis |
| Description | The model was an integrated model utilising GAMS and VB.NET to analyse complex climate and hydrological data for adaptation decisions |
| Type Of Material | Data analysis technique |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | The model contributes towards understanding of how uncertainty cascades from model to model and their implications for adaptation decision |
| Description | HR Wallingford |
| Organisation | HR Wallingford Ltd |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Private |
| PI Contribution | We contributed to the research project and tools developed at HR Wallingford |
| Collaborator Contribution | They provided data and advice to develop an analysis methodology |
| Impact | produced a water resources model based on a tool of HR Wallingford |
| Start Year | 2009 |
| Description | Southern Water |
| Organisation | Southern Water |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Private |
| PI Contribution | Collaborated with Southern Water and Atkins Ltd. to work on one of Southern Water's water resource zone and helped explore the uncertainty associating with climate change impacts |
| Collaborator Contribution | provided data and advice for the research |
| Impact | produced an analysis methodology specific to the study area but also applicable to other sites. |
| Start Year | 2009 |
| Description | Southern Water |
| Organisation | WS Atkins |
| Department | Atkins Asset Management |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Private |
| PI Contribution | Collaborated with Southern Water and Atkins Ltd. to work on one of Southern Water's water resource zone and helped explore the uncertainty associating with climate change impacts |
| Collaborator Contribution | provided data and advice for the research |
| Impact | produced an analysis methodology specific to the study area but also applicable to other sites. |
| Start Year | 2009 |
| Title | Robust Decision Analysis tool |
| Description | The software can take climate and hydrological data to produce analysis on failures and robustness of water resources systems, based on a combination of simulation and opimisation techniques. |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2013 |
| Impact | The software led to a more comprehensive analysis of uncertainty impacts on adaptation decisions |
| Description | World Bank workshop on Decision Making under Uncertainty |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.) |
| Results and Impact | Presented a talk on Robust Decision Analysis, which sparked questions and discussion afterwards Some delegates shown interest in the methodology |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |