Resource implications of adaptation of infrastructure to global change
Lead Research Organisation:
Newcastle University
Department Name: Civil Engineering and Geosciences
Abstract
This fellowship will develop a new generation of analysis and decision making tools required for engineers to respond to the challenges of intensifying global change. Consumption of energy and other resources is widely acknowledged to be unsustainable at today's rates. The world is therefore faced with the challenge of designing and implementing the transition to a more sustainable situation, a state in which greenhouse gas emissions and resource consumption (e.g. energy, water, materials) are drastically reduced and our society is well adapted to the impacts of climate change. Infrastructure systems such as water, energy, transportation and waste are the array of physical assets (and associated processes) responsible for moving the goods and services that ensure the safety, health and wealth of cities and their inhabitants. Thus, design and management of infrastructure has implications in terms of vulnerability and resource consumption (e.g. denser cities use less energy per capita on private transport, but can aggravate flooding and heat stress). However, effective management of infrastructure systems is challenging because they (a) vary in space, (b) are highly interconnected, (c) interact strongly with an ever-changing environment and population, and, (d) deteriorate with age. Nowhere is this more evident than cities, where over half the global population live and more than three quarters of global resources are consumed. As cities adapt in response to global pressures such as climate change, it is crucial to understand the implications of these adaptations in terms of resource requirements to avoid confounding parallel sustainability initiatives. Whilst the vulnerability of the built environment to climate impacts is to some extent understood, resource flows, such as energy, waste and water within cities are currently poorly-understood and are generally considered in terms of gross inputs and outputs to the urban area. The relationship between urban form, function and these resource flows has only been established from observational evidence e.g. relating population density directly to total transport energy demand. This provides insufficient evidence to appraise, plan and design specific adaptations as it does not account for crucial properties of the urban system such as land use, human activity, or the topology and attributes of the infrastructure systems that mediate this, and other, relationships (for example, land use and flood risk). To plan and design adaptations in urban areas requires a capacity to analyse the behaviour of whole cities over timescales of decades, to simulate and test the effectiveness of alternative management options and to monitor and modify the system performance. The capacity to adequately understand and model processes of change within the coupled technological, human and natural systems that comprise cities does not yet exist. This fellowship will address this priority area, through the development of a novel coupled systems simulation model of urban dynamics, climate impacts and resource flows within cities. This systems integrated assessment model will be used to analyse the relationship between the spatial configuration of cities and their infrastructure systems, resource consumption and vulnerability to climate change impacts. Working closely with key stakeholders in industry and local government I shall develop, demonstrate and apply decision analysis methods to show how long term planning strategies can be developed for re-engineering cities from their 'traditional' form into more sustainable configurations.In doing this, I shall provide the evidence to underpin more sustainable engineering and policy decisions and reduce the harmful impacts of unmitigated global change in urban areas.
Organisations
- Newcastle University (Lead Research Organisation)
- Design Council (Project Partner)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Project Partner)
- University College London (Project Partner)
- EThekwini Municipality (Project Partner)
- Cundall Johnston & Partners LLP (UK) (Project Partner)
- Greater London Authority (Project Partner)
- Arizona State University (Project Partner)
- Arup Group (United Kingdom) (Project Partner)
People |
ORCID iD |
| Richard Dawson (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
Blanc J
(2012)
Enhanced efficiency of pluvial flood risk estimation in urban areas using spatial-temporal rainfall simulations
in Journal of Flood Risk Management
Bramald T
(2015)
Teaching sustainability to first year civil engineering students
in Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Engineering Sustainability
Brown Shaun Anthony
(2016)
Resilient infrastructure networks : managing the impacts of disruptive events on resource movements
Caparros-Midwood D
(2017)
Spatial Optimization of Future Urban Development with Regards to Climate Risk and Sustainability Objectives.
in Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
Caparros-Midwood D
(2015)
Optimised spatial planning to meet long term urban sustainability objectives
in Computers, Environment and Urban Systems
Caparros-Midwood D
(2019)
Low Carbon, Low Risk, Low Density: Resolving choices about sustainable development in cities
in Cities
Caparros-Midwood Daniel
(2016)
Spatially optimised sustainable urban development
Charlton T
(2018)
Control Variate Approach for Efficient Stochastic Finite-Element Analysis of Geotechnical Problems
in ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Creutzig F
(2019)
Upscaling urban data science for global climate solutions
in Global Sustainability
Dawson R
(2011)
Assessing the effectiveness of non-structural flood management measures in the Thames Estuary under conditions of socio-economic and environmental change
in Global Environmental Change
Dawson R
(2011)
An agent-based model for risk-based flood incident management
in Natural Hazards
Dawson R
(2015)
Editorial
in Infrastructure Asset Management
Dawson R
(2014)
Potential pitfalls on the transition to more sustainable cities and how they might be avoided
in Carbon Management
Dawson R
(2013)
Editorial
in Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Engineering Sustainability
Dawson R
(2015)
Editorial
in Infrastructure Asset Management
Dawson R
(2015)
Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment
in Climate
Dawson RJ
(2014)
Approaches for national, regional and sectoral assessments
Dawson RJ
(2014)
Integrated modelling of cities and infrastructure
Dawson RJ
(2018)
An Agent-Based Model for Flood Resilience Engineering
Dunn S
(2013)
Network theory for infrastructure systems modelling
in Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Engineering Sustainability
Ford A
(2015)
Transport Accessibility Analysis Using GIS: Assessing Sustainable Transport in London
in ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information
Ford A
(2019)
A multi-scale urban integrated assessment framework for climate change studies: A flooding application
in Computers, Environment and Urban Systems
Fu G
(2016)
A Spatial Network Model for Civil Infrastructure System Development
in Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering
Fu G
(2014)
Interdependent networks: vulnerability analysis and strategies to limit cascading failure
in The European Physical Journal B
Guerreiro S
(2018)
Future heat-waves, droughts and floods in 571 European cities
in Environmental Research Letters
Guerreiro S
(2017)
Pluvial Flooding in European Cities-A Continental Approach to Urban Flood Modelling
in Water
Guerreiro Selma
(2017)
Future changes in heat-waves, droughts and floods in 571 European cities
in EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts
Heidrich O
(2022)
LAYERS: A Decision-Support Tool to Illustrate and Assess the Supply and Value Chain for the Energy Transition
in Sustainability
Heidrich O
(2013)
Assessment of the climate preparedness of 30 urban areas in the UK
in Climatic Change
Holderness T
(2012)
An evaluation of thermal Earth observation for characterizing urban heatwave event dynamics using the urban heat island intensity metric
in International Journal of Remote Sensing
Jonkman S
(2012)
Issues and Challenges in Flood Risk Management-Editorial for the Special Issue on Flood Risk Management
in Water
Mokrech M
(2012)
Scenarios of Future Built Environment for Coastal Risk Assessment of Climate Change Using a GIS-Based Multicriteria Analysis
in Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design
Nimmo A
(2011)
Introduction
in Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Civil Engineering
Pregnolato M
(2016)
Assessing urban strategies for reducing the impacts of extreme weather on infrastructure networks.
in Royal Society open science
Pregnolato M
(2016)
Disruption and adaptation of urban transport networks from flooding
Reckien D
(2018)
How are cities planning to respond to climate change? Assessment of local climate plans from 885 cities in the EU-28
in Journal of Cleaner Production
Reckien D
(2013)
Climate change response in Europe: what's the reality? Analysis of adaptation and mitigation plans from 200 urban areas in 11 countries
in Climatic Change
Rogers CDRF
(2014)
Resource scarcity and security: an I&R challenge
Villarroel Walker R
(2014)
The energy-water-food nexus: strategic analysis of technologies for transforming the urban metabolism.
in Journal of environmental management
Walsh C
(2013)
Experiences of integrated assessment of climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation modelling in London and Durban
in Environment and Urbanization
Walsh C
(2011)
Assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation in cities
in Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Urban Design and Planning
Walsh C
(2013)
Collaborative platform to facilitate engineering decision-making
in Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Engineering Sustainability
Walsh C
(2016)
Adaptation of water resource systems to an uncertain future
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
| Description | Work has covered a broad range of themes related to the long term sustainability and resilience of cities and their infrastructure. I have developed or discovered: 1. An urban integrated assessment modelling framework for looking at, and managing, long term change and risks in cities. This has been applied to show that London can adapt practically to higher end climate projections - at least over the next 100 years. 2. Developed a network-theory approach to analysing cascading failure in urban infrastructure systems and used it to demonstrate that certain types of interdependencies can introduce instabilities into infrastructure sytems. 3. Developed an innovative approach to modelling coupled human-engineering systems and applied it to North Wales to evaluate alternative evacuation strategies. 4. Developed an approach to assessing the resource requirements of certain infrastructures to understand their wider environmental impact and therefore possible conflicts with other sustainability objectives. This has been validated against Hurricane Sandy in New York City. 5. Developed a spatial optimisation algorithm to explore and identify best options from the tradeoffs between climate risks, energy consumption and other sustainability objectives for new development in cities. |
| Exploitation Route | This grant preceded the need for a pathways to impact statement so I can not refer specifically to objectives there. Some of this work is already being taken forward by policy makers interested in city/infrastructure planning. Work is underway to make the modelling tools more 'user friendly' so that other academics, several have already expressed an interest, can apply and further advance the approaches. There is an interest from the civil engineering industry, but further 'translational' work is required to facilitate uptake of the methods in day to day practice. An impact acceleration award is developing an urban modelling 'educational game' (or serious game) called Simecopolis that will help communicate some of the research concepts to a wider audience. |
| Sectors | Construction,Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice,Transport,Other |
| URL | http://www.ncl.ac.uk/ceser |
| Description | The impact on my career of the fellowship has been enormous. The freedom afforded by a fellowship has enabled me to develop my own team, and extend my research activity and its reach internationally - far beyond my original expectations. My research has been used to inform the London Spatial Development Plan to be more 'climate sensitive' to enhance resilience to extreme events and consider climate risks in long term planning. My work on integrated assessment of cities has been picked up and are starting to be applied internationally in Durban, Shanghai and several European cities. Work on coastal infrastructure management won an insurance industry award, but has also been used by the UK's Committee on Climate Change. A new type of socio-technical modelling approach has been applied in North Wales to help inform the local evacuation strategy in the case of a coastal flood. The work has been heavily cited in the IPCC's 4th and 5th assessment reports which inform international climate policy. My research has been recognised internationally through appointment to the Future Earth Cities Theme Leadership Group and the Steering Group of the international Urban Climate Change Research Network |
| First Year Of Impact | 2010 |
| Sector | Construction,Environment,Transport,Other |
| Impact Types | Societal,Economic |
| Description | Richard Dawson appointed to UK Government's independent Committee on Climate Change |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Membership of a guideline committee |
| Impact | The committee provides independent advice to government. They oversee the 5 yearly climate change risk assessment, mandated by the 2008 Climate Change Act and assess the UK's progress in terms of adaptation to climate change impacts. |
| URL | https://www.theccc.org.uk/about/asc-members/ |
| Description | ARCC Energy programme |
| Amount | £445,000 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | EP/I035781/1 |
| Organisation | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 09/2011 |
| End | 01/2016 |
| Description | Arup Global Research Challenge: Delivering green infrastructure in cities through a new business model |
| Amount | £35,000 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | NE/N019180/1 |
| Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 02/2016 |
| End | 09/2017 |
| Description | CCRA Section Lead |
| Amount | £10,000 (GBP) |
| Organisation | Committee on Climate Change (CCC) |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | |
| Description | ESF COST |
| Amount | € 500,000 (EUR) |
| Funding ID | TU0902 |
| Organisation | European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | Belgium |
| Start | 10/2009 |
| End | 03/2014 |
| Description | FP7 ENV.2012.6.1-3 |
| Amount | € 520,000 (EUR) |
| Organisation | European Commission |
| Department | Seventh Framework Programme (FP7) |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | European Union (EU) |
| Start | 10/2012 |
| End | 10/2016 |
| Description | LWEC Infrastructure Report Card |
| Amount | £8,000 (GBP) |
| Organisation | European Commission |
| Department | Seventh Framework Programme (FP7) |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | European Union (EU) |
| Start | |
| Description | Microsoft Azure |
| Amount | £30,000 (GBP) |
| Organisation | Microsoft Research |
| Sector | Private |
| Country | Global |
| Start | |
| Description | Microsoft Azure |
| Amount | $40,000 (USD) |
| Organisation | Microsoft Research |
| Sector | Private |
| Country | Global |
| Start | 01/2014 |
| End | 12/2014 |
| Description | NERC Public Policy Secondment to GLA |
| Amount | £2,000 (GBP) |
| Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 06/2009 |
| End | 10/2009 |
| Description | Next Generation Resilience |
| Amount | £230,000 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | EP/I005943/1 |
| Organisation | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 10/2010 |
| End | 03/2014 |
| Description | Royal Academy of Engineering Ingenious Award |
| Amount | £30,000 (GBP) |
| Organisation | Royal Academy of Engineering |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | |
| Description | Storm risk assessment of interdependent infrastructure networks |
| Amount | £161,390 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | NE/N012852/1 |
| Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 01/2016 |
| End | 12/2016 |
| Description | TWENTY 65: Tailored Water Solutions for Positive Impact |
| Amount | £3,962,860 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | EP/N010124/1 |
| Organisation | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 12/2015 |
| End | 11/2020 |
| Description | UKCRIC - CORONA: City Observatory Research platfOrm for iNnovation and Analytics |
| Amount | £1,011,544 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | EP/R013411/1 |
| Organisation | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 02/2018 |
| End | 01/2020 |
| Description | Birmingham City Council workshop on 16th March 2016 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Attendance at the Birmingham City Council workshop on 16th March 2016 about the work currently underway to develop a new approach to solid waste management in Birmingham. To be briefed on progress to date regarding development of a new approach to waste management for Birmingham; and to contribute to its further development in a workshop. A varied group of people including consultants, council officers, council members, waste practitioners and community groups. An understanding of the state-of-play regarding the development of a new approach to waste management in Birmingham; contribution to the further development of the process. Email to Birmingham City Council with comments on the process, based on findings from iBUILD . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
| Description | Plenary speaker, IPCC Cities and Climate Change Conference, Edmonton, March 2018 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Plenary speaker, IPCC Cities and Climate Change Conference, Edmonton, March 2018 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://citiesipcc.org/ |