ENFOLD-ing - Explaining, Modelling, and Forecasting Global Dynamics

Most of our science which is used to inform policy makers about future social and economic events has been built for systems that are local rather than global and are assumed to behave in ways that are relatively tractable and thus responsive to policy initiatives. Any examination of the degree to which such policy-making has been successful or even informative yields a very mixed picture with such interventions being only partly effective at best, and positively disruptive at worst. Human policy-making shows all the characteristics of a complex system. Many of our interventions make problems worse rather than better leading to the oft-quoted accusation that the solution is part of the problem .Complexity theory recognizes this dilemma. In this research programme, we will develop new forms of science which address the most difficult of human problems: those that involve global change where there is no organised constituency and whose agencies are largely regarded as being ineffective. We will argue that global systems tend to be treated in isolation from one another and that the unexpected dynamics that characterises their behaviour is due to their coupling and integration that is all to often ignored. To demonstrate this dynamics and to develop appropriate policy responses, we will study four related global systems: trade, migration, security (which includes crime, terrorism and military disputes) and development aid, which tends to be determined as a consequence of these three individual systems. The idea that this dynamics results from coupling suggests that to get a clear view of their dynamics and a better understanding of global change, we need to develop integrated and coupled models whose dynamics can be described in the conventional and perhaps not so conventional language of complexity theory: chaos, turbulence, bifurcations, catastrophes, and phase transitionsWe will develop three related styles of model: spatial interaction models embedded in predator-prey like frameworks which generate bifurcations in system behaviour, reaction diffusion models that link location to flow, and network models in which epidemic-like diffusion processes can be used to explain how events cascade into one another. We will apply spatial interaction models to trade and migration, reaction diffusion to military disputes and terrorism, and network models to international crime. We will extend these models to incorporate the generation of qualitative new events such as the emergence of new entities e.g. countries, coupling them together in diverse ways. We will ultimately develop a generic framework for a coupled global dynamics that spans many spatial and temporal scales and pertains to different systems whose behaviours can be simulated both quantitatively and qualitatively. Our models will be calibrated to data which we will assemble during the project and which we already know exists in usable form.We will develop various models which incorporate all these ideas into a global intelligence system to inform global policy makers about future events. This system (and we intend there to be many versions of it) will allow policy makers to think the unthinkable and to explore all kinds of what if questions with respect to our four key global systems: trade, migration, security and development, while at the same time, enabling global dynamics to be considered as a coupling of these systems. We will begin developing these models for the UK in terms of the rest of the world but then extend this to embrace all the key countries and events relevant to this global dynamics. Our partners who in the first instance are UK government departments and multinational companies with a global reach will champion this extension to the global arena. The programme will be based on ten academic faculty at UCL spanning a wide range of centres and departments.

Direct beneficiaries will be primarily UK agencies and government departments dealing with trade, migration, security and development aid: namely BIS/Treasury, the Home Office, and Justice in so far as it relates to international activity, the Foreign Office and DFID. Our hands-on partners will be DFID and the Home Office who have active forums to discuss policy which we will influence throughout the programme. World agencies and networks which link the third sector to government potentially benefit from research of this kind. Multinationals with a world reach such as Cisco Systems, IBM, Autodesk and ESRI through our existing contacts will be drawn into a wider a circle of beneficiaries. The EU Global Systems Dynamics and Policies network will be used to mobilise many related groups in Europe. Government, agencies, and firms will benefit from this research by being empowered into anticipating global change which is unexpected, novel and surprising. This has major impacts on both the UK and world economic performance and it will increase the effectiveness of public services with respect to migration and the whole area of international crime and security. Less directly, the quality of life will be affected for many national populations. We will ensure that our beneficiaries receive opportunities to engage in this research by developing mechanisms for communication and engagement through our partnerships with the Home Office, the EU through the Global Systems Dynamics (GSD) network, world agencies dealing with trade, migration and security, and global commercial companies such as IBM and Cisco. Our ideas of 'policy clubs' or 'forums' mentioned in the workplan provide a direct way of increasing opportunities for our beneficiaries to realise the value of our research while the Steering Committee will be charged with the task of engaging world agencies during the first years of the programme in preparation for the early demonstrators that we will develop. We will in fact use some intermediary organisations in UCL such as the development Planning Unit (DPU) and the Migration Research Unit (MRU) who currently are not pencilled in for resources from the project, other than their being in the Bartlett and Geography. These units have extensive networks into policy making in developing countries, and in migration policy, with links to the relevant agencies involved. Currently we have no plans for secondment of our staff but part of the flexibility this programme makes this possible, and will allow us through the Management Board and Steering Committee to respond to such possibilities. Our conferences and seminar series are aimed at global policy makers and we will actively discuss the role of training workshops in our global intelligence systems in the second phase of the project. We will ensure effective and appropriate exploitation through explicit demonstrations that our models are being used to inform the policy-makers that we have identified. The best measure of our impact will be the positive (or otherwise) responses of the policy makers to this new science; its impact will be measured over a term considerably longer than the life of this programme. In terms of direct exploitation, much of the software we produce will be downloadable, and a measure of success is the number of users. The capabilities and resources for the activity as detailed in the main proposal means that the investigators will be solely responsible for ensuring the programme generates these impacts. The CASA administration will undertake publicity, media and web design, and have substantial prior experience in conference and meeting organisation, contact with media, and the design of publications (see www.casa.ucl.ac.uk). Resources for both administration and the management of this process for ensuring effective impacts are part of the FEC associated with the investigators and CASA administration.