Cross Disciplinary Feasibility Account: Warwick Centre for Fusion Space and Astrophysics.
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Warwick
Department Name: Physics
Abstract
A central idea that we wish to pursue is the dynamic response of real world complex systems to 'shock or surprise'. Both the brain and financial systems (meaning markets, individual companies or sectors), are functionally comprised of many interacting elements which propagate and process information. A highly topical question is whether it is possible to quantify from available data when the response of a system to a 'shock' will be within normal bounds (normal response time to a neurological test task, a fluctuation in price) or will be highly correlated and catastrophic (a seizure, a stock market crash or company failure). Understanding this would lead to paradigm shifting insights into both brain function and financial system dynamics. Researchers within Warwick's interdisciplinary EPSRC and STFC funded Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics (CFSA) have pioneered techniques to analyse 'real world' data from laboratory experiments for Magnetic Confinement Fusion and from astrophysical plasmas. These plasma systems can exhibit rather unpredictable 'bursty' behaviour and can self organise, that is, show large scale transitions from disordered to highly ordered, correlated behaviour. We propose to apply these ideas to focus on two cross-disciplinary 'grand challenges': brain function, and market dynamics, as captured by Magnetoencephalography (MEG) measurements of the brain, and by financial and other company data. This implies a high degree of cross- disciplinary working, between plasma physicists within CFSA, Warwick, neurologists within the MRC Cognition & Brain Sciences Unit, Cambridge, and strategists within the Warwick Business School.In the framework of the physical sciences there is a direct and well understood mapping between quantifying such systems and modelling them. An open question that we will address is how such a mapping can be rigorously and usefully applied in the wider context. By building bridges between traditionally segregated disciplines (neuroscience, econometrics and plasma physics) we can tackle substantive interdisciplinary questions, for example, in what sense is a market crash like an epileptic seizure in the brain? Addressing such questions in a quantitative and predictive manner has the potential for far reaching impact in both clinical neuroscience and econometrics. This radical approach will enable physical models to be extended beyond their now mature application to contribute, and perhaps create, a far broader interface with the wider social sciences.
Planned Impact
The nature of the work being undertaken is highly speculative but has potential for far reaching impact. Clearly, any advance in our understanding of the response of financial markets and systems to 'shocks', or a diagnostic of neurological health based on non-invasive MEG technology will have the potential to make significant contributions to EPSRC's priority themes of security of energy supply and living with environmental change, and next generation healthcare. Who will benefit from the research and how will they benefit from this research? Development of new quantitative tools to assess how brain systems process information in healthy and disordered states will be of considerable interest to clinical neuroscience and psychiatry. Ultimately, quantitative insights into how MEG data relate to human brain function would lead to methods to diagnose cognitive function and disorders, with particular application to epilepsy and schizophrenia. The economic and social costs of brain disorders associated with impaired cognitive function and poor occupational performance are substantial. The annual costs of schizophrenia alone are estimated to be in the order of 7bn annually in the UK, of which about 2bn is due to direct healthcare costs. In tackling these disorders therapeutically, a key objective is to develop better models for how distributed brain systems normally process information and how pathological disruption of these systems can lead to impairment. The development of quantitative approaches to MEG that we propose would ensure that full scientific value is obtained from the major recent investments in neuroimaging infrastructure and it will potentially provide new diagnostic and predictive biomarkers of cognitive impairment that could be used to improve patient care and to support development of new pro-cognitive drugs. The importance of the proposed research from this perspective is that it includes data on well-established cognitive testing paradigms in healthy volunteers and people with schizophrenia. This means that the results will be immediately of interest to academic and industrial neuroscientists with potential for major impact on how cognitive disorders are understood theoretically and approached therapeutically. Quantifying the likely impact of news or events on markets and companies again has clear application to their monitoring and management. The current instability has cost some 475bn globally according to the IMF. Clearly any successful mitigation techniques would be valuable to business strategists and organisations from single investors to Governments (eg Risk Analysts, Company Director mentors, Financial strategists and Central Banks). There is also potentially a significant feedback to plasma physics based challenges in particular space weather applications and to understanding enhanced confinement modes of MCF with relevance to ITER operating regimes. What will be done to ensure that they benefit from this research? Cognitive researchers are typically also practicing clinicians, and business strategists in academia work closely with companies. Results and ideas flowing from this research would therefore quickly flow into potential applications where appropriate. We will also present and promote our results more formally at workshops open to practicing clinicians and to practicing business strategists. We will engage the wider community and press where appropriate. Warwick Ventures have a strategy and procedure in place to effect licensing and dissemination to the wider business community. There is also direct benefit to the training of young researchers and enhancement of interdisciplinary activity. We will provide training and introduction to patents, licensing and spin- out companies to the researchers supported on this grant.
Organisations
Publications
Andries J
(2009)
Coronal Seismology by Means of Kink Oscillation Overtones
in Space Science Reviews
Anfinogentov S
(2013)
Decay-less kink oscillations in coronal loops
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Anfinogentov S
(2019)
Magnetohydrodynamic Seismology of Quiet Solar Active Regions
in The Astrophysical Journal
Angioni C
(2009)
Gyrokinetic simulations of impurity, He ash and a particle transport and consequences on ITER transport modelling
in Nuclear Fusion
Antolin P
(2011)
TRANSVERSE OSCILLATIONS OF LOOPS WITH CORONAL RAIN OBSERVED BY HINODE /SOLAR OPTICAL TELESCOPE
in The Astrophysical Journal
Bergin A
(2022)
Variation of Geomagnetic Index Empirical Distribution and Burst Statistics Across Successive Solar Cycles
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Bergin A
(2020)
A E , D S T , and Their SuperMAG Counterparts: The Effect of Improved Spatial Resolution in Geomagnetic Indices
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Bergmann A
(2009)
The bootstrap current in small rotating magnetic islands
in Physics of Plasmas
Blanken T
(2019)
Real-time plasma state monitoring and supervisory control on TCV
in Nuclear Fusion
Botha G
(2011)
NONLINEAR THREE-DIMENSIONAL MAGNETOCONVECTION AROUND MAGNETIC FLUX TUBES
in The Astrophysical Journal
Botha G
(2010)
Thermal conduction effects on the kink instability in coronal loops
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Botha G
(2012)
Formation of magnetic flux tubes in cylindrical wedge geometry
in Geophysical & Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics
Botha G
(2011)
CHROMOSPHERIC RESONANCES ABOVE SUNSPOT UMBRAE
in The Astrophysical Journal
Brady C
(2011)
An ion acceleration mechanism in laser illuminated targets with internal electron density structure
in Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion
Brady CS
(2012)
Laser absorption in relativistically underdense plasmas by synchrotron radiation.
in Physical review letters
Brizard A
(2011)
Exact momentum conservation laws for the gyrokinetic Vlasov-Poisson equations
in Physics of Plasmas
Broomhall A
(2019)
A Blueprint of State-of-the-art Techniques for Detecting Quasi-periodic Pulsations in Solar and Stellar Flares
in The Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series
Calderon F
(2013)
Low dimensional dynamics in type I ELMing in JET plasmas
in 40th EPS Conference on Plasma Physics, EPS 2013
Calel R
(2020)
Temperature variability implies greater economic damages from climate change.
in Nature communications
Camenen Y
(2010)
Experimental evidence of momentum transport induced by an up-down asymmetric magnetic equilibrium in toroidal plasmas.
in Physical review letters
Camenen Y
(2010)
Experimental demonstration of an up-down asymmetry effect on intrinsic rotation in the TCV tokamak
in Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion
Camenen Y
(2009)
Impact of the background toroidal rotation on particle and heat turbulent transport in tokamak plasmas
in Physics of Plasmas
Camenen Y
(2009)
Transport of parallel momentum induced by current-symmetry breaking in toroidal plasmas.
in Physical review letters
Carbajal L
(2017)
Quantifying Fusion Born Ion Populations in Magnetically Confined Plasmas using Ion Cyclotron Emission.
in Physical review letters
Carbajal L
(2014)
Linear and nonlinear physics of the magnetoacoustic cyclotron instability of fusion-born ions in relation to ion cyclotron emission
in Physics of Plasmas
Casson F
(2009)
Anomalous parallel momentum transport due to E×B flow shear in a tokamak plasma
in Physics of Plasmas
Chapman B
(2017)
Sub-microsecond temporal evolution of edge density during edge localized modes in KSTAR tokamak plasmas inferred from ion cyclotron emission
in Nuclear Fusion
Chapman B
(2020)
Comparing theory and simulation of ion cyclotron emission from energetic ion populations with spherical shell and ring-beam distributions in velocity-space
in Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion
Chapman B
(2018)
Nonlinear wave interactions generate high-harmonic cyclotron emission from fusion-born protons during a KSTAR ELM crash
in Nuclear Fusion
Chapman B
(2020)
Origin of ion cyclotron emission at the proton cyclotron frequency from the core of deuterium plasmas in the ASDEX-Upgrade tokamak
in Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion
Chapman S
(2020)
A clock for solar and geomagnetic activity
Chapman S
(2010)
Finite size effects and scaling in solar wind fluctuations
Chapman S
(2018)
Control system-plasma synchronization and naturally occurring edge localized modes in a tokamak
in Physics of Plasmas
Chapman S
(2020)
Using the Index Over the Last 14 Solar Cycles to Characterize Extreme Geomagnetic Activity
in Geophysical Research Letters
Chapman S
(2019)
Warming Trends in Summer Heatwaves
in Geophysical Research Letters
Chapman S
(2015)
Limits to the quantification of local climate change
in Environmental Research Letters
Chapman S
(2018)
Reproducible Aspects of the Climate of Space Weather Over the Last Five Solar Cycles
in Space Weather
Chapman S
(2017)
The global build-up to intrinsic ELM bursts and comparison with pellet triggered ELMs seen in JET
in Nuclear Fusion
Chapman S
(2021)
The Sun's Magnetic (Hale) Cycle and 27 Day Recurrences in the aa Geomagnetic Index
in The Astrophysical Journal
Chapman S
(2009)
Macroscopic control parameter for avalanche models for bursty transport
in Physics of Plasmas
Chapman S
(2018)
Intrinsic ELMing in ASDEX Upgrade and global control system-plasma self-entrainment
in Nuclear Fusion
Chapman S
(2014)
Relationship of edge localized mode burst times with divertor flux loop signal phase in JET
in Physics of Plasmas
Chapman S
(2009)
OBSERVATION OF UNIVERSALITY IN THE GENERALIZED SIMILARITY OF EVOLVING SOLAR WIND TURBULENCE AS SEEN BY ULYSSES
in The Astrophysical Journal
Chapman S
(2020)
Quantifying the Solar Cycle Modulation of Extreme Space Weather
in Geophysical Research Letters
Chapman S
(2020)
Trends in Winter Warm Spells in the Central England Temperature Record
in Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
| Description | please see the relevant research papers |
| Exploitation Route | please see the relevant research papers and grants |
| Sectors | Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Healthcare |
| Description | please see the relevant research papers |
| First Year Of Impact | 2013 |
| Sector | Energy,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy |
| Impact Types | Economic |
| Description | AFOSR |
| Amount | $100,000 (USD) |
| Funding ID | FA9550-17-1-0054 |
| Organisation | Airforce Office of Scientific Research |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United States |
| Start | 03/2017 |
| End | 03/2018 |
| Description | Fulbright-Lloyd's of London Scholarship 2017/18 |
| Amount | $60,000 (USD) |
| Organisation | US-UK Fulbright Commission |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 10/2017 |
| End | 09/2018 |
| Description | NORKLIMA |
| Amount | kr 900,000 (NOK) |
| Organisation | Research Council of Norway |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | Norway |
| Start | 01/2014 |
| End | 01/2016 |
| Description | Newton-CONICYT |
| Amount | $1,438,000 (CLP) |
| Organisation | Newton Fund |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 03/2015 |
| End | 10/2016 |