Multiscale Modelling to maximise Demand Side Management (Part 2)

Modern energy systems are complex technical, social and economic endeavours formed through the assembly of a broad set of elements and shaped by the actions of many multiple actors including consumers, suppliers and regulators. While some gains can be achieved by optimising parts of these systems, significant reduction in energy demand is a major challenge requiring changes in behaviour from all the actors involved. In this proposal we wish to exploit the ability of digital technologies to monitor, model and represent the operation and effects of energy demand to promote changes in these systems. This is often realised through a set of actions and measures, commonly known as demand side management (DSM). Current approaches to DSM and reduction of energy demand, however, are often viewed entirely from the consumer's perspective, concentrating mostly on the importance of behavioural changes and the role of energy displays (or smart meters ) as main drivers of these changes. This emphasises only one part of modern and increasingly complex energy systems, which actually need to be understood in their entirety to ensure that changes will have both significant and sustainable impact. Accordingly, this proposal adopts an end-to-end approach to exploit digital technology to understand the overall energy supply system (from generation to transmission, distribution and utilisation), in which devised changes are targeted at the points of maximum impact and all involved system elements are fully optimised to reap the benefits of these changes.The ultimate aim of our research is to answer how the significant potential benefits of DSM can be maximised through the provision of a unified, versatile and affordable digital infrastructure that allows us to reason across a whole energy system and supports new ways to exchange information between dynamic multiscale DSM models. The expected outcome is access to, and presentation of, not just quantitative information (e.g. the amount of modified active/reactive power demands), but also qualitative information (e.g. what are the actual load mixes and load sectors responsible for the changes in demand and what are their definite effects) to all involved stakeholders. In particular, we wish to link the use of modern digital technologies, capable of impacting the behaviour of the consumers, with the ability to optimally respond to the resulting changes in energy demand. The project team brings together researchers with a background in ubiquitous computing, complex systems modelling and user centred development to work with researcher focusing of real world energy systems and energy economics. We will adopt a user driven approach to the design and development of a series of computational models and digital technologies working closely with consumers, energy supply companies and government bodies to explore a set of exciting state-of-the-art innovations based on low-cost sensing and display technologies. The project team has strong connections with key industrial, public sector and academic groups in UK and internationally, and these will be used to ensure that the proposed research will have maximum impact. Free access to any developed system to promote change, and a publicly accessible web site will be maintained for the dissemination of the results. We intend to make any software artefacts and device designs available via open source distribution through the Horizon DE Hub. We will build upon our existing public dissemination work to emphasise issues of ethics and societal impact as important features of this work.

This project focuses on exploiting the potential of the digital technologies underpinning a future digital economy to promote a reduction of energy demand and to ensure this reduction has maximum impact. The leverage on R&D investment is potentially very significant and results from the project's emphasis of understanding the overall system to ensure that the impact of any demand reduction is maximised. The annual demand for electricity in the UK is just over 400 TWh of which 118 TWh, nearly 30%, is domestic consumption. If the work in this proposal leads to a 10% reduction in demand it will return up to 1Billion per annum to the UK economy in consumer savings and would lead to deferring construction of nearly 4000 MW of new thermal plant (capital cost up to 2000m) and a reduction of 6-10 MTonne CO2 per year (100m/year at 10/tonne in modest carbon market). Beyond its direct economic impact the project's impact will include improving our energy systems, reducing environmental impact and enhancing the quality of life, for both the individual end-users ( everyday citizens ) and the planet. The proposed work has the potential to impact a large number of beneficiaries. Our intent is to strategically exploit a range of mechanisms to ensure maximum impact across a number of communities including: * The private technical development sector will benefit through exposure to the rapid development and deployment of novel affordable technologies and modelling approaches that could have much potential for being exploited as mass marketed domestic products or specialised tools for the energy industry. * Policy makers concerned with energy regulation and environmental change will benefit from considering new avenues for introducing new socially acceptable policies, using the knowledge gleaned about people's everyday consumer habits and what behaviours are susceptible or resistant to change when using persuasive visualisation technologies coupled with understandings of critical bottlenecks in the energy system * Charities concerned with promoting the reduction of carbon emissions and energy reduction will benefit from the studies conducted that explore new avenues by which people's behaviour can be changed (voluntarily or enforced) and offer new strategies for marketing these to the general public. * The general public and the education sector benefit from learning about the energy system as a whole and their role within it. In addition to the targeted transfer of emerging results, the project will have a significant impact on increasing the UK capacity to undertake interdisciplinary research in the energy sector. This is a crucial research area of national importance that spans not just between academic and industrial concerns, but also through a wider societal and environmental context.