IDEAS Factory - Game theory and adaptive networks for smart evacuations.

In the United Kingdom the evacuation of cities has not been a recent concern although incidents such as floods or acts of terrorism have meant that cities have had to be partially evacuated. Whether the area to be evacuated is a city district, a whole city or even a city region the way in which people behave and how they choose to share and receive information is paramount. In the pre and warning stages of an evacuation people will behave in different ways. Some individuals might have access to rumours that a crisis is about to occur (we call these weak signals) and start evacuating before the official order to do so. Others might have no access to information, may decide to act only when others do, or even ignore official warnings and remain in their homes (as was the case with Hurricane Katrina). During the evacuation there will also be communication between the authorities and emergency services and even between evacuees who might communicate through mobile telephones or social networks (such as twitter). Even at the end of the evacuation individuals will be making decisions about what to do (to stay in the evacuation zone or return to the city) and will stay in touch with others. In this project we consider that the ways in which individuals might behave in evacuations can be described using mathematical models and theories. One way of describing how people act as a collective is through agent based models, where individuals influence others information and behaviour, and another is game theory, where individual's decisions are strategic. By combining these we can predict how individuals might behave in an evacuation and determine the ways in which the emergency services and local responders might influence social networks and communication to help individuals and businesses evacuate safely and effectively. Of course, we anticipate that individuals might have access to new technologies in terms of communication so part of the project will look at how this may change the dynamics of evacuation.The project is informed throughout by current practice and will inform policy. Three cities (London, Birmingham and Carlisle) are chosen as case studies of how real evacuations might be assisted by the project. We will look at the evacuation plans in each of these cities, conduct focus groups and expert interviews with relevant parties, and analyse the use of social networks in actual evacuation or crisis events. Stakeholder groups will comment on the models which we produce and feedback as to how they can be adapted to work in practice.The results of the project will feed into how real evacuations work and inform the strategies and technologies used. We will produce both an interim and final report from the project and our impact plan will make sure that relevant parties are informed about the project and its results. One example of how the project might be useful is in terms of informing emergency planners and services in cities. If these planners know how social networks and mobile communications are used in an evacuation then they can tailor their messages accordingly. If, for example, there are two roads out of a city and analysis of social networks and traffic flow shows that individuals are intending to use the first road which would cause congestion then they can decide what sort of message would best direct people towards the second road, how long it would take to propagate and what effect it might have. In another example, road signs do not often give real time information about what is happening, which might be crucial during an evacuation. By using electronic and ambient signage not only can a message be sent but the effect of the message can be judged.

The ultimate aim of this project is to contribute to improving the efficiency and the safety of city evacuations. If successful in its aim, this project has not only the potential to fundamentally change the way in which policy makers, public managers and businesses operate in the context of emergency planning and response, but it will also have a direct impact on the lives of people when an emergency situation occurs. The ultimate beneficiary of this research will, therefore, be the general public. In the case of an actual evacuation the outcomes of this research will translate into a reduced number of injuries and fatalities. More specifically, faster and safer evacuations will lead to a number of additional socio-economic benefits including a reduction in potential policing costs, fewer hospital admissions and robust business continuity management. If communication can be tailored to specific groups of the population, then there will be more opportunities for a coordinated collaboration with the general public and less chance of social conflict arising from emergency situations. We will make sure that the public benefits from this research through working with stakeholder groups and policy makers in translating the results of our project into practical outputs that lead to safer and faster evacuations. In the design of our project we have built in collaboration with, and dissemination to, stakeholders. In terms of public awareness the project team will maintain a high media profile by using established links with local, national and international media: press releases will be issued on a regular basis and feature articles will be prepared for the local/national press; radio panels and interviews with key stakeholders and experts in the field will also be facilitated. Economically, there are additional potential cost savings if evacuation can be made more efficient for emergency planners to administer. By linking to existing on-line social networks, exploiting mobile technologies and ambient computing, emergency planners and services will be able to collectively and collaboratively foster links with emerging and established real-life networks and tap into street-level knowledge in real-time. This will ultimately translate into a more efficient use of available resources and reduced cost in emergency planning and response. It will also feed into the government's CONTEST 2 strategy. This level of synergy between the general public, businesses, policy makers and emergency services will be achieved by actively engaging with representatives from across public, private, community groups and the voluntary sector. In order that these benefits to the commercial sector, savings to the general public and benefits to the economy might be maximised, we have created a work package on policy advice (WP4). This package is designed to maximise the impact of our findings on business strategy and policy with regard to continuity and resilience in evacuations. In terms of technological development, the project will actively seek further partnerships and target all potential beneficiaries through a number of events and activities including seminars. The purpose of such seminars is threefold: (1) to disseminate emerging research findings to all potential beneficiaries; (2) to seek future partnerships and further financial support (e.g. through a Knowledge Transfer Partnership); (3) to seek out potential consultancy opportunities and collaborations with industries. To capitalise on the above impacts a high profile London-based dissemination event will complement the above mentioned activities and it will coincide with the launch of the final report. The event will target 50 key stakeholders from UK organisations. Invited speakers will include members of our advisory board to allow knowledge transfer and expertise dissemination across all groups.