IDEAS Factory - Resilient Futures

What will the UK's critical infrastructure look like in 2030? In 2050? How resilient will it be? Decisions taken now by policy makers, NGOs, industrialists, and user communities will influence the answers to these questions. How can this decision making be best informed by considerations of infrastructural resilience? This project will consider future developments in the UK's energy and transport infrastructure and the resilience of these systems to natural and malicious threats and hazards, delivering a) fresh perspectives on how the inter-relations amongst our critical infrastructure sectors impact on current and future UK resilience, b) a state-of-the-art integrated social science/engineering methodology that can be generalised to address different sectors and scenarios, and c) an interactive demonstrator simulation that operationalises the otherwise nebulous concept of resilience for a wide range of decision makers and stakeholders.Current reports from the Institute for Public Policy Research, the Institution of Civil Engineers, the Council for Science and Technology, and the Cabinet Office are united in their assessment that achieving and sustaining resilience is the key challenge facing the UK's critical infrastructure. They are also unanimous in their assessment of the main issues. First, there is agreement on the main threats to national infrastructure: i) climate change; ii) terrorist attacks; iii) systemic failure. Second, the complex, disparate and interconnected nature of the UK's infrastructure systems is highlighted as a key concern by all. Our critical infrastructure is highly fragmented both in terms of its governance and in terms of the number of agencies charged with achieving and maintaining resilience, which range from national government to local services and even community groups such as local resilience forums. Moreover, the cross-sector interactions amongst different technological systems within the national critical infrastructure are not well understood, with key inter-dependencies potentially overlooked. Initiatives such as the Cabinet Office's new Natural Hazards Team are working to address this. The establishment of such bodies with responsibility for oversight and improving joined up resilience is a key recommendation in all four reports. However, such bodies currently lack two critical resources: (1) a full understanding of the resilience implications of our current and future infrastructural organisation; and (2) vehicles for effectively conveying this understanding to the full range of relevant stakeholders for whom the term resilience is currently difficult to understand in anything other than an abstract sense. The Resilient Futures project will engage directly with this context by working with relevant stakeholders from many sectors and governance levels to achieve a step change in both (1) and (2). To achieve this, we will focus on future rather than present UK infrastructure. This is for a two reasons. First, we intend to engender a paradigm shift in resilience thinking - from a fragmented short-termism that encourages agencies to focus on protecting their own current assets from presently perceived threats to a longer-term inter-dependent perspective recognising that the nature of both disruptive events and the systems that are disrupted is constantly evolving and that our efforts towards achieving resilience now must not compromise our future resilience. Second, focussing on a 2030/2050 time-frame lifts discussion out of the politically charged here and now to a context in which there is more room for discussion, learning and organisational change. A focus on *current resilience* must overcome a natural tendency for the agencies involved to defend their current processes and practices, explain their past record of disruption management, etc., before the conversation can move to engaging with potential for improvement, learning and change.

We will make use of traditional academic channels of research publication and conference presentation, but also wider and more direct engagement with practitioner communities. We will target high-impact general journals as well as high-profile interdisciplinary journals and more domain-specific journals. We will also continue to target high-profile international conferences where we will seek to convene special sessions dedicated to the project's area. We will also seek opportunities to publish articles in journals, magazines and newsletters aimed at the practitioner community, exploiting our stakeholder contacts to identify the most appropriate vehicles. Additional mechanisms will also be deployed to reach those likely to benefit from the project's outcomes. The first stage will be to engage with the substantive networks of professionals cultivated during the project. Whilst this will enable an initial targeted dissemination of the findings, the next stage will employ snowball-sampling techniques to identify additional relevant actors and agencies. Once identified these actors will be engaged via face-to-face meetings, invitations to Events, and eventually dissemination of briefing reports summarizing the project's findings in professionally designed high-impact executive summaries. The project team will also aim to reach the wider resilience community via targeted presentations to regional and local resilience forums, and engagement with print, broadcast and on-line media, drawing on the team's existing connections, and those of our key stakeholders. A website will be established and maintained to disseminate research findings and software, advertise events, and mediate intra-project collaboration. As mentioned above, our findings will be made accessible to non-technical audiences through summaries and briefing papers. We will develop a standard format for these, and funds are requested for initial graphic design work on the template design. While the majority of the materials will be produced by the research team themselves, where appropriate we will employ the services of professional copywriters to ensure that complex technical information is communicated in the most accessible way. We will produce a number of short articles for a range of media, for example New Scientist. PhD students, post-doctoral researchers and academics will be supported through appropriate training in writing for a non-technical audience and dealing with the media. The summaries and briefings will be produced in both print and electronic format; print media remains a key way to access the policy community despite the rapid development of the Internet. In addition to the passive production of documents, we will actively work with our Stakeholder Forum to identify how our results can be assimilated into end user organisations. In addition to the intellectual output of the project, its most tangible legacy takes the form of a user-ready interactive demonstrator system that will be freely available for agencies to use as a training tool. In collaboration with our stakeholders, we will explore the potential for developing training simulations for specific user contexts (e.g., educating the public or asset managers about infrastructure resilience, or simply raising the profile of resilience issues), and the possibility of generalizing our work to adjacent sectors (e.g., resilience of social care and health care services during extreme weather events). We expect the project's impact to continue beyond the end of the funded period in the form of subsequent research and development efforts both within academia, in the private sector and in the form of partnership activities that bring together, e.g., multiple government agencies to explore infrastructure resilience in specific contexts not considered by the R-Futures project.