Adaptation and Resilience of Coastal Energy Supply

The project aims to identify the challenges facing the future security of the UK nuclear energy sector and coastal energy supply in the NW region as a result of changing patterns of temperature and rainfall, sea-level rise and storms. In particular, we will determine the threats posed to future energy generation and the distribution network by flooding and erosion, changing patterns of coastal sedimentation, water temperature and the distribution of plants and animals in the coastal zone. As well as having important consequences for the operation of coastal power stations, these climate change impacts also affect the neighbouring coastline as well as the coastal waters. As a result, communities need to be made aware of these future threats, and to be brought into discussions that decide the future of energy supply in the UK. To support this, the project will first build a computer model of the coast that can operate at scales of 25-100 km and that can predict coastal changes for estuaries, gravel beaches, sandy beaches and dunes, and cliffs made up of both hard and soft rock. The coupled outputs from this integrated model will be converted into maps of future flooding, erosion, sedimentation, water quality and habitats that are the result of climate change projections to the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s and, over longer periods of time, our best understanding of long-term coastal change to 2100, 2200 and 2500 AD. These maps can then be consulted and overlain using a computer-based geographic information system as a decision-support tool to assist in drawing-up coastal management plans, looking at the different threats that we face and the options to address their overall impact on coastal energy supply. The aim is to identify how the coastal power stations, substations and distribution grid can adapt to future climate change impacts and thus become more resilient, thus securing our energy needs as we move into a low-carbon future.

The project structure is designed to build capacity for cross-disciplinary working and research among a constituency of academics, researchers (NOC-N, NNL), practitioners drawn from the energy sector (e.g. EDF, National Grid, Electricity North West), environmental engineering (e.g. Royal Haskoning), government agencies and regulators (e.g. NDA, EA), NGOs (e.g. BECC Working Group, RSPB), planners and managers (e.g. local authority shoreline management groups), interest groups (e.g. NW Coastal Forum), the third sector and community networks. This is ensured at an early stage in the project whereby the wider community of project partners and stakeholders are engaged in the specification of project outputs in terms of their key knowledge and data needs, and through regular progress meetings. This co-production of research also extends to partners in the energy and engineering sectors mentoring new researchers in areas of policy implementation and planning consent. The main beneficiaries are the UK public who will benefit from the optimization of electrical energy from low carbon generation and the security and certainty of supply at an economically acceptable value. Similarly, the project methodology will strengthen the role of society in decision making, empowering stakeholders in guiding what happens to their environment. This is likely to streamline the consultation process and, thus limit the costs of public enquiry. The project aims to advance techniques and science that are policy-relevant and helpful to the energy supply and regulatory communities. For example, the development of decision-support products and procedures that can be applied nationally to the nuclear energy sector and regionally to coastal energy strategy provides practical means for achieving the vision of UK energy policy. Being far-sighted in terms of climate change impacts on energy supply will mean that we minimize costly impacts from erosion and flooding on coastal power stations and infrastructure, and address operational challenges arising from changes in sedimentation patterns, water temperature and quality, and coastal ecosystems at an early stage. Other beneficiaries are the transmission and distribution network operators who will be able to run the network with some confidence that loss of coastal substations will not cause a catastrophic loss of the entire grid. Also highly policy relevant is the provision of a framework that can be used to test the impact of alternative policy instruments that affect energy investment, thus assisting practitioners and researchers in the regulatory field as Ofgem develop their regulatory approach to incentivize efficient investment and appropriate network resilience to meet climate challenge. There will also be benefits for economic developments in the UK as global manufacturers seek assurances about the security of supply before committing to locate manufacturing facilities. In the long-term, it is envisaged that the project outputs for assessing adaption and resilience of energy supply are rolled out to other regions and potentially other nations, thus underpinning the delivery of energy policy elsewhere and potentially contributing to sustainable international development, thus preventing further significant addition to global CO2 emissions. From a different sectoral perspective, the model outputs and GIS are attuned to the spatial scales of shoreline management planning, thus assisting the local authorities, the EA and Defra in delivering strategic coastal zone management that is also resilient the impacts of climate change.