Realising Transition Pathways - Whole Systems Analysis for a UK More Electric Low Carbon Energy Future

The project will extend the work of the Transition Pathways project, in which an innovative collaboration
between engineers, social scientists and policy analysts developed and analysed a set of 'transition
pathways' towards a UK low carbon electricity system. The pathways aimed to meet the UK's target of an
80% cut on 1990 levels of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The team developed and applied tools to
analyse the technical feasibility, social acceptability and environmental and economic impacts of these
pathways. The research built a sound platform from which to address the challenge of realising a low
carbon transition.

The aim of the new project is to explore what needs to be done to achieve a transition that successfully
addresses the energy policy 'trilemma', i.e. the simultaneous delivery of low carbon, secure and affordable
energy services. We focus on electricity, but in a context that includes the electrical provision of heat and
transport, and key EU developments and policies. The project will inform thinking and decision-making
about technological and behavioural developments, and the roles of key energy system 'actors',
governance arrangements and regulations in a low carbon transition. The team will:

1. Analyse actors' choices and decisions in past, current and prospective developments in electricity
supply and demand;

2. Analyse the social, behavioural and technical drivers and implications of electricity users' responses
to incentives on the demand side and how to integrate these responses into electricity systems;

3. Undertake techno-economic modelling and energy and environmental assessments of the
developments in electricity supply (including transmission and distribution networks) needed to
meet this responsive demand.

This research will inform decision-making by central and local government policy-makers, energy firms -
both incumbents and new entrants, and civil society groups with an interest in energy policy. Following
analysis by the Committee on Climate Change and in view of its commitments under national and
European targets, the UK government is envisioning a rapid expansion of low-carbon electricity generation
as a key means of moving towards a low carbon economy. However, this will require significant and interconnected
changes in the patterns of energy service demands, market and regulatory frameworks and
energy company business models, as well as technological innovation and deployment. This research aims
to inform decision-making by:

1. investigating how the choices and interactions of actors and structural factors could contribute to the
realisation of low carbon pathways, and what are likely to be key decision or branching points;
2. assessing the role of future demand responses, understanding the factors that drive energy demand
and energy-using behaviour, and integrating this analysis within a whole-systems framework of
electricity system development;
3. developing a set of interacting and complementary tools to analyse electricity network infrastructure
investment and operational decisions, in order to model decisions to invest in the range of fossil
and low carbon generation, taking into account market design and subsidy mechanisms;
4. appraising the energy and environmental performance of the technological mix, on a whole systems
basis, analysing future economic costs, benefits, risks and returns, and uncertainties, and using
economic models to explore wider social welfare, growth and employment impacts.

These strands of research will be brought together to form a 'whole systems analysis' of the technical,
environmental, economic, and social implications of alternative transition pathways to a UK low carbon
electricity future.

The project outputs and on-going stakeholder engagement will have significant impacts. The main outputs will be analyses of the dynamics of realising a successful transition to a UK low carbon electricity system. These analyses will inform thinking and decision making about the roles of actors, governance arrangements, regulations, and technological and behavioural developments, in ways that will help key actors play their part in addressing the energy and climate policy 'trilemma' - balancing climate change mitigation, energy security and affordability of energy services. Beneficiaries will include a broad cross section of energy-related stakeholders, including power companies, e.g. E.On, RWE NPower, transmission and distribution companies e.g. National Grid and Western Power Distribution, UK national and local government e.g. DECC and BIS, regulators and key advisory bodies, including Ofgem and the Committee on Climate Change, industry, e.g. Rolls Royce and Carbon Trust and research funders, e.g., the Research Councils and the RCUK Energy Programme. In the short and medium term, power companies will benefit from our work on mapping and analysing actor dynamics and their changing roles in the contemporary UK electricity system and on realising transition pathways in alternative market and policy contexts. Longer term they will benefit from by the whole systems energy and environmental appraisal of low carbon technologies and pathways and horizon scanning of low carbon power systems. The project outputs will potentially impact their investment decisions in renewable energy technologies, network and infrastructure reinforcement and customer interaction. Transmission and distribution companies will benefit from the outputs in relation to the economic analysis and appraisal of different pathways and options, realising a smart demand side, and whole systems modelling of the role and value of demand side response. These areas could have a significant impact as these companies develop their strategies and submissions for the RIIO ED1 period (to be implemented in 2015) with an emphasis on customer satisfaction, reliability and social obligations. In the short and medium term, policymakers, regulators and consumer groups will benefit, from the outputs on potential pathway branching points and insights from historical transitions, which will help them address the nature and scale of the challenges they face in a radical low carbon transition. The whole systems analysis will provide an insight into environmental appraisal of the energy sector, including the implications of factors such as 'upstream emissions'. For example, this will support the ongoing DECC 2050 pathways work, the setting of and advice on carbon budgets, Ofgem's RIIO ED1 framework and LCNF planning and ongoing Committee on Climate Change work. Longer term the outputs of the project may influence future Government policy in relation to meeting 80% carbon emissions reduction targets by 2050, the smart grid rollout and possibly at an EU level, the proposed European Supergrid. In the medium term OEM suppliers to the power companies / network operators will benefit from the horizon scanning and whole systems appraisal of low carbon power systems, which will provide valuable insights into the likely equipment required to meet the changing needs of the electricity industry. The international nature of the industry and its suppliers means that the research impact will go beyond the UK, with the opportunity to influence policy and network developments in the EU and potentially in rapidly growing countries, e.g. China and India. Research Councils will benefit from the project's advances in interdisciplinary and whole systems working, the development of significant interdisciplinary research capacity, and the horizon scanning research. Indirect beneficiaries will include other utilities facing low carbon transitions e.g. water industry, gas suppliers or transport infrastructure.