EcoWatt2050

The Scottish Government is committed to promoting substantial sustainable growth in its marine renewable industries. Agreements for sea bed leases are already in place for 2GW of wave and tidal developments, and projects are progressing through the licensing process. Strategic marine planning for future phases of wave, tidal and offshore wind development is now in progress. For marine renewables to significantly contribute to the low-carbon energy mix towards 2050, significant offshore development in the form of very large scale arrays will be needed.

In planning for such a future, the Government must consider the mix of technologies, the locations and configurations of very large scale arrays and their performance, and the implications of anticipated changes to the marine environment from climate change. In establishing its strategic policy positions, the Government must also ensure that legal obligations are met, particularly those under the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) to achieve Good Environmental Status (GES) by 2020.

The EcoWatt2050 consortium has been established through the auspices of the Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland (MASTS) with Heriot-Watt University and the Universities of Edinburgh, Aberdeen, Strathclyde, Swansea and the Highlands and Islands, the National Oceanography Centre (Liverpool) and with Marine Scotland Science (MSS), the organization responsible for providing scientific advice to the Scottish Government on all aspects of marine renewable energy development, policy and planning. The research programme has been specifically designed to respond to questions posed by MSS: (1) How can marine planning be used to lay the foundation for the sustainable development of very large scale arrays of marine renewable energy devices? (2) What criteria should be used to determine the ecological limits to marine renewable energy extraction, and what are the implications for very large scale array characteristics? (3) How can we differentiate the effects of climate change from energy extraction on the marine ecosystem? (4) Are there ways in which marine renewables development may ameliorate or exacerbate the predicted effects of climate change on marine ecosystems? The overarching objective is thus to determine ways in which marine spatial planning and policy development, can enable the maximum level of marine energy extraction, while minimizing environmental impacts and ensuring that these meet the legal criteria established by European law.

The research is structured in 5 workstreams. The first led by MSS will monitor progress and set out scenarios for the mix of technologies, very large scale array configurations, and environmental acceptance criteria. The second led by Edinburgh University will develop the hydrodynamic models necessary to examine the physical changes brought about by very large scale energy extraction, including under conditions anticipated from climate change. These outputs feed directly into workstreams 3 and 4 led by HWU and Aberdeen University respectively. These extend this work to examine changes in availability and location of critical habitats for benthic and mobile marine species, and to determine the consequences of changes in critical habitat for the ecosystem as a whole. Finally, workstream 5 led by MSS provides a synthesis of this research, quantifying the balance between energy extraction and environmental change and acceptance criteria to be used in marine spatial planning and policy development.

EcoWat2050 builds in direct participation from industry in various aspects of its work, and has a number of wider knowledge exchange and stakeholder engagement activities planned.

EcoWatt2050 will provide answers to specific questions faced by marine planning authorities on the potential limits to marine renewables extraction (encompassing the future mix of marine technologies), on the cumulative physical and ecological impacts of these, and how these are to be differentiated from those of climate change, and other anthropogenic impacts envisaged by 2050. These are critical to marine spatial planning and to inform strategic policy development on marine energy, and under the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Deliverables from the project will be pivotal in enabling national and regional planning authorities to determine strategic arrangements for optimal exploitation of the resource while maintaining necessary levels of environmental protection and status. This is critical for effective marine spatial planning, for protecting the qualifying features of Natura 2000 sites, and for meeting the requirements of the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive.

Marine Scotland Science, the organisation responsible for providing scientific advice to the regulator and planning authority on all planning and consenting matters where very large scale arrays are envisaged, is a full project partner in EcoWatt2050 and will oversee the deliverables and lead, throughout the research, the engagements with the device and field project developers, which are necessary to ensuring confidence in the outputs of the work for both industry and regulator.

This partnership, and the necessary engagements with developers are embedded in EcoWatt2050 to ensure the pivotal impact of the work, that deliverables meet the requirements of the sector and can be immediately exploited.

Providing a framework for the strategic development of marine renewables and predicting the impacts of very large scale resource extraction by 2050 are essential to de-risking the long term development of the sector, and will assist investors in supporting and building the financial case for accelerated deployment on these scales. Socio-economic benefits will be evident at a community level by providing skilled employment as a result of accelerated developments, up to regional, national and international level by increasing the UK share of renewables, and thus low carbon, energy production capacity globally. Direct beneficiaries of this research activity include the marine planning and regulatory authorities, the Crown Estate (responsible for seabed leasing), device and field developers, and investors associated with field development financing. Its positive economic and social impacts in providing timely solutions to these questions are significant.

Associated with the accelerated development of the sector, are secondary economic benefits which will come from upgrades to the electricity network, enhanced opportunities in technology manufacturing, and regional benefits from upgrades to port and harbour facilities, and related service sector activity, all likely to arise, with less risks, from confidence associated with a clear future strategy.

The expertise and capacity developed from the research will assist in the integration of science into the marine planning process, and will benefit more generally the knowledge economy now emerging around marine renewable planning, strategic environmental assessment, and the ecosystem approach to the management of European seas, and in particular to the implementation of the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive.

The project will also generate new knowledge and advances in methodologies, both in innovation and application, of value not only to the sector but to a wider research community in fields ranging from hydrodynamic modeling to marine climate change.