Reducing uncertainty in predicting the risk of geological storage of CO2 - Improved geomechanical models and calibration using seismic data

Although the scientific community and many governments agree that greenhouse gases resulting from the use of hydrocarbon fuels are primarily responsible for producing damaging global climate change, society is still heavily dependent on hydrocarbon fuels for everything from electricity generation, transport, and manufacturing. Time scales involved for viable transitions to low carbon societies will likely be on the order of several decades and thus requiring immediate solutions for reducing current anthropogenic CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. Geological storage forms an integral component of the carbon capture, transport and storage (so-called CCS) engineering technology chain and is now recognized by most governments and scientists as a practical strategy with relatively immediate consequences in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, continuing to meet the world's energy needs, and transitioning to low carbon economies. When CO2 is injected and stored in a geological formation, the in situ stress field is altered immediately due to increased pore pressure and reduced temperature within the reservoir. This leads to deformation in both the reservoir and surrounding rock. This deformation can change the injection and storage characteristics of the geological formation. Furthermore, substantial changes can significantly compromise cap-rock integrity (i.e. the barrier to upward flow of buoyant CO2) through the formation fractures and/or the reactivation of existing fractures or faults.

The objective of my fellowship is to address the fundamental uncertainty related to reservoir stress as a response to the geological storage of CO2. The fellowship aims to make a step change in quantifying the uncertainty and risks due to the injection and storage of CO2 in geological storage sites. To accomplish this, the research will develop and advance current approaches in building complex hydro-mechanical models using seismic data, and develop methods to calibrate state-of-the-art hydro-mechanical modelling tools using seismic and surface deformation data. The main outcomes or the fellowship are to significantly improve our ability to:
(i) assess the safety of geological storage sites in the early stages of development to reduce uncertainty and risk, and
(ii) use integrated model predictions to provide a forecasting and mitigating tool to describe the behaviour of geological storage sites due to the injection and storage of CO2.

The fellowship will be conducted at the University of Leeds. The research environment at Leeds will allow me to continue to develop my CCS research, while working with some of the key people in this field. Prof Quentin Fisher has been the driving force behind integrated hydro-mechanics and petro-physics; Prof Bruce Yardley is at the forefront in researching geochemical effects of CO2 injection and fluid-rock; Prof Peter Taylor was former Division Head of the Technology Policy Division in CCS at the International Energy Agency; Prof Andrew Gouldson has proven experience in the policy and risk analysis of low carbon technologies; and Prof Andrew Shepherd has strong expertise in developing novel applications of InSAR to monitor surface deformation in complex terrains.

The fellowship provides an opportunity to advance the UK's current strengths and capabilities in CO2 storage modelling, prediction and risk quantification by addressing key limitations in integrated modelling workflows and providing valuable insight into the risks and challenges face in future storage activities. The fellowship will have broad impact on a range of stakeholders interested in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), such as scientists, policy makers, regulators and the general public. The fellowship fits broadly into the field of multi-phase flow in porous, deformable media and hence is multidisciplinary. The results can be translated to other key strategic energy areas, such as shale-gas exploitation and geothermal energy, but also by nature benefit scientists working on seismic, geodetic, fluid-flow and geomechanical methods in many basic and applied fields of research studying the impact of pressure and temperature changes on physical systems (e.g. volcanologic or ground-water research).

The impact of the proposed research will touch on:
i. Economy: provide an opportunity to advance the UK's current strengths and capabilities in CCS,
specifically targeting CO2 storage modelling, prediction and risk quantification; provide valuable data to
assess the economic risks and challenges in large-scale storage activities; allow translation to other
key strategic areas, such as geothermal energy and shale-gas exploitation.
ii. Society: provide valuable data to inform policy and regulation for large-scale CCS geological storage
activities as well as other key energy strategic areas, such as geothermal energy and shale-gas
exploitation.

During the fellowship, it will be necessary to identify:
1. What information and who this information should be translated to
2. Which stakeholders could facilitate transfer of information to the appropriate users
3. How to facilitate the translation efforts (e.g., websites, technical white papers, access to online
resources, workshops)
4. How to evaluate knowledge translation efforts by monitoring the implementation and evidencing the
impact.

Critical for maximizing impact is to engage all possible stakeholders in the beginning, which enables relationships to be developed early on enabling effective push and pull efforts in translating the new knowledge. Below is a brief summary of approaches that will be used during the fellowship, how the impact will be assessed and what resources will be required.
1. Knowledge exchange (KE):
i. Development of partnerships with business, government and Non-governmental Organizations
(NGOs) and
ii. Linked data development initiatives. KE will involve the iterative exchange of research ideas, data,
and application opportunities. The data development initiative will entail the creation of databases of
research, bibliographies of academic literature and the interpretation of such literature.
2. Technology transfer and exploitation: The main aim of the proposed fellowship is to aid in the
deployment of CCS technology within the UK to meet the 2020 and 2050 carbon reduction
commitments. To facilitate this, I will engage with those industries currently working on (e.g., Shell, BP,
Statoil) or expressing interest in the geological storage of CO2. This can be achieved by making
in-house presentations, providing access to white papers and research results, fostering collaboration
within (e.g., competitors) and across business sectors and convening workshops. I will also engage with
government organizations (e.g., DECC) early on and throughout the fellowship to identify and define
what information is required for policy and regulation, and work with these organizations to help shape
new policy and regulation.