Measurement and Analysis of bioenergy greenhouse gases: Integrating GHGs into LCAs and the UK Biomass Value Chain Modelling Environment (MAGLUE)

To meet the 2020 renewable energy target the UK is going to need biomass, and lots of it. DECC has an aspiration for an additional 20-38TWh of biomass electricity by 2020 and this will require around 12-23 million dry tonnes of biomass. This is a huge quantity of material, the vast majority of which would be imported as pellets from Canada and the USA and burnt in converted coal fired power plants. Other imported feedstocks for liquid fuels might include Brazilian ethanol from sugar cane and oils from palm oil in Southeast Asia. The UK is not alone in wanting to use more biomass. The Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, and Sweden all expect to use more, and estimates of future EU demand for wood pellets alone, for example, range from 23-80 million tonnes. One single coal power station in the UK is looking to source up to 10 million tonnes of biomass each year. If the UK wants biomass power on a large scale it is clear that the power generators will need to become major players in the transatlantic wood pellet trade.

Against this background of increased demand, there remains significant uncertainty on whether the use of biomass for energy is environmentally sustainable. Any type of managed land use can incur a carbon 'debt' - a net loss of carbon or other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere that contributes to global warming. Other greenhouse gases include methane and the oxides of nitrogen. But quantifying the net impact of a bioenergy crop relative to what it might replace (sometimes called the counterfactual), is less than straightforward. This has led to many claims and counter-claims from commercial interests, environmental groups and academics, on the real greenhouse gas impact of land use change to bioenergy systems, where there still remains much disagreement and controversy.

The project described here is aimed at addressing this controversial issue - quantifying the real GHG balance of different land use transitions to bioenergy crops, for both UK and imported bioenergy feedstocks. We will deploy sophisticated state-of-the-art instrumentation that is able to measure GHGs very rapidly, to gain a better insight into the dynamic range of GHG emissions that can occur in such systems, including when fields are ploughed and planted and when fertilisers are added. Following data collection, we will extend our analysis by modelling a wide geographical range across the UK and for biomass feedstock sourced from other areas of the world. The models we use should work if we can utilise available datasets, globally, for weather, soils and yield data of the range of crops of interest.

The GHG data in such systems are usually used to develop emissions factors that are inputted into whole life cycle assessments (LCAs) of carbon (or C equivalent) costs, but these in the past have often been unverified data. We will assess the quality of past data and from our measurement and model campaigns we can test the effectiveness of emissions factors and how they might be improved from our work, including for overseas feedstocks. Finally, in an allied project we have developed a value chain model to optimise the technology options for the UK for bioenergy, depending on how cost, GHG balance and land availability are defined. We will run this model to identify the best bioenergy chains, in terms of GHG balance, for the UK and test scenarios ('what if' questions), to determine how much imported feedstock might be sustainable in the future.

Within this SUPERGEN Challenge project, all Impact activities will be undertaken in consultation with the SUPERGEN Hub to ensure no duplication. Dr Whitaker alongside the PI and Patricia Thornley will manage this interaction.

In addition, The PI co-Chairs The University of Southampton Energy Research Group with funding available to support activities emerging from MAGLUE, for Impact.

Our actions will be focussed on:
1. Developing project literature (brochure) to describe the project in non-technical language for wide dissemination at Hub activities with the bioenergy industry, those engaged in policy and stakeholders as identified above. A brochure will be developed in month 1 of the project and again in month 36. The first to describe the project and the second, our major outcomes, identified below.

2. We will engage with stakeholders as described in WP5, within the first three months of the project through a workshop. Their opinions on bioenergy chains and GHG research gaps will be considered. Imperial College (Slade) have considerable experience of 'Technology and Policy Assessments' and have a well-developed format for this type of engagement that will be followed here. The aim of this workshop will be to ensure we are working on the most appropriate bioenergy chains, with consideration of likely future feedstock sources. A second workshop will be held towards the end of the project as a dissemination event to report our major findings.

3. Discussion Meeting. Our international collaborators have agreed to join in a discussion meeting on the topic of LCAs in sustainability frameworks for bioenergy, their underpinning development, the global relevance of our underpinning data and to share best practice for policy development. Initial thoughts are to hold this at a central location in London (2016) and to invite our stakeholder group to attend and contribute. The output will be a synthesis paper with both a technical (peer reviewed) detailed output and a synthesis of the meeting published as an opinion piece.

4. Framework Document The key outcomes from MAGLUE, identified below, will be synthesised into a Framework document and a policy-briefing report translating research outcomes for stakeholders. These will be disseminated at a stakeholder dissemination event in month 36, which will be designed in collaboration with the Supergen Bioenergy Hub.

5. Wider Impact and engagement Through interaction with the hub, the PI and others involved in MAGLUE will engage in all activities for Impact including presentations at non-science conferences and where the Hub is exhibiting, communicating the importance of our project work for policy and commercial interests concerned with bioenergy development and deployment in the UK

KEY OUTCOMES FROM MAGLUE

1. Greater accuracy in estimating GHG balances for UK and non-UK bioenergy feedstocks, accounting for temporal and spatial variability and
management impacts
2. Improved understanding of the impacts of overseas bioenergy feedstocks on bioenergy technology optimisation in the UK
3. Identification of 'preferred' bioenergy chains that best meet the sustainability principles identified in the UK's 2012 Bioenergy Strategy
4. A critical appraisal of the emission factors and methods used to calculate the GHG performance of bioenergy value chains.
5. A systematic framework though which improved and spatially explicit evidence on GHG emission factors can be incorporated into a policy
relevant tool